State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

ice coverage · Nov 22, 2012

Ashley Wagner finds strength under pressure, consistency

Kelly Whiteside, USA TODAY Sports
5:40PM EST November 20. 2012
http://usatoday.com/story/sports/ol...-strength-under-pressure-consistency/1718085/

Wagner's schedule, skating breathtaking

Globetrotting by Philip Hersh
3:27 p.m. CST, November 21, 2012
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sport...ting-olympics-nike-todayshow,0,1269814.column

clairecloutier · Nov 22, 2012

Good Hersh article, but a bit of an overstatement here: "This season, she [Wagner] has beaten all the world’s leading women except reigning Olympic champion Kim Yu-Na of South Korea."

Ashley has not beaten Mao Asada, or Akiko Suzuki, or, most importantly, Carolina Kostner this season. I do like her chances against Asada and Suzuki (and as we know, she beat Mao last year at 4CC). However, if Kostner shows up at Euros/Worlds, she may still be a significant force and difficult to beat.

l'etoile · Nov 22, 2012

eyria said:
Good Hersh article, but a bit of an overstatement here: "This season, she [Wagner] has beaten all the world’s leading women except reigning Olympic champion Kim Yu-Na of South Korea."

Ashley has not beaten Mao Asada, or Akiko Suzuki, or, most importantly, Carolina Kostner this season. I do like her chances against Asada and Suzuki (and as we know, she beat Mao last year at 4CC). However, if Kostner shows up at Euros/Worlds, she may still be a significant force and difficult to beat.

Ashley beat Mao in JO. And with her scores, 190 points in total, she has indeed beaten everybody in GP series. There's scores difference across the competitions but 10 points apart, 181 from Mao in CoC which is the second highest scores IIRC in GP series this season, is a pretty big margin.

Skater Boy · Nov 22, 2012

Ashley is looking really good right now. She has got it all and so far is the most consistent and best put together programs (when executed which unlike others she has been money.

clairecloutier · Nov 22, 2012

Does anyone remember what Carolina scored in TES/PCS in her long program at Worlds last year? This season Mao and Ashley have both hit 64+ in PCS. I'm just wondering how that compares to Carolina last year.

R.D. · Nov 22, 2012

eyria said:
Does anyone remember what Carolina scored in TES/PCS in her long program at Worlds last year? This season Mao and Ashley have both hit 64+ in PCS. I'm just wondering how that compares to Carolina last year.

It was 65.72 for her FS http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc2012/SEG008.HTM High as usual.

Anyway, we see Zawadzki and Nagasu again this weekend. Curious to see how they stack up in relation to Wagner and Gold- plus, it should be a good set-up for preliminary Nationals predictions (again, keeping in mind that the GP isn't always the best indicator of how a skater will do at the end of the season)

sky_fly20 · Nov 22, 2012

a clean Zawadzki or Gao, I don't can even think will be scored higher than a half decent skate Gold, the international results show, Gracie is still much prefered

Layfan · Nov 22, 2012

Mathman said:
I think they will. Ashley is way better than the field this year. I think it will be a coronation, with a side show for second place.

Color me humbled on Ashley! I have to agree. And not just because she won two gold medals. Some commentator during Skate America said that she has learned to really draw her audience in. So true. Her performances haven't been legendary but they have been commanding. The ONLY American lady about which that can be said this season. Which is too bad for the US ladies, but not for Ashley. Good for her and hope she keeps it up.

drivingmissdaisy · Nov 22, 2012

Layfan said:
Some commentator during Skate America said that she has learned to really draw her audience in. So true. Her performances haven't been legendary but they have been commanding.

I'm a huge Ashley fan but if there's one weakness, I think she can come across as mechanical when she shows her grit and determination going into her jumps. I like that she takes an athletic approach but at the same time she doesn't take me away in the performance with that trait. She is by far my favorite skater this season though.

R.D. · Nov 24, 2012

So...after NHK, how are you all feeling?

I think Nagasu's NHK total is now 2nd best for Americans behind Wagner's score at TEB. A solid effort by her and it looks like she'll fully be in the mix for a World team spot as expected.
______________________

No pair is a sure bet [for the US world team] but at this point a healthy Wagner MUST be one of those two spots for us to have any shot at all. Gold MIGHT be the best choice at this point for spot 2, but even she is having some consistency issues particularly in the FS. A little unsettling how she handled SC, makes me wonder how she'll deal with the (much!) bigger spotlight of Worlds.

Then you've got Gao who seems to be on the upswing- still working out consistency issues, though...and Nagasu seems to be doing better than she has in quite some time (although never forget her meltdown in Torino...).

Among the 4 of them, ranking them in order of preference for world team (assuming Wagner is #1): Gold 1st (solid score at COR even with mistakes), Nagasu 2nd (previous world experience gives her edge over Gao), Gao 3rd, Zawadzki 4th.
_______________________

Also, a new SI article concerning Wagner's progress up to this point:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/20...neuve/11/22/ashley-wagner/?xid=si_mostpopular

FSGMT · Nov 24, 2012

I do hope that Mirai gets at least a 4CC spot, but I think that, if Gold skates well at Nationals, they could send her to Worlds and (maybe) to JWC, too... So, my predicitions, at the moment, are:
Worlds: Wagner, Gold
4CC: Wagner, Gao, Nagasu
We will have to wait after the GPF and watch how Wagner deals with the big pressure that is now on her (like Liza last year): if she keeps skating cleanily and (hopefully) adds the 3-3 and/or the 2A+3T, I think her spots are pretty there...

Layfan · Nov 24, 2012

drivingmissdaisy said:
I'm a huge Ashley fan but if there's one weakness, I think she can come across as mechanical when she shows her grit and determination going into her jumps. I like that she takes an athletic approach but at the same time she doesn't take me away in the performance with that trait. She is by far my favorite skater this season though.

It's hard to think of a skater who doesn't do that in competition though. Even Michelle Kwan would get her look of concentration face when she was going into the jumps. She sometimes turned it into the Michelle-blazing-look-of-passion which helped

but I can't think of a skater who really stays in character when they're about it do a triple lutz double toe loop.

Ashley may not be a legendary performer, but this season, she starts her performance with the first note of music and doesn't stop until then end. Compare that to Mirai, whom I love (what happened to the heart eyes emoticom???), but who often seems so serious and even glum until she hits all her jumps and then finally comes to life. Mirai is capable of performing her heart out (see 2010) but it hasn't happened for a while. Still, so nice to see her having a solid season so far and fingers double crossed for the rest of the season!!!! And for Ashley! Would be the bomb to see those two at worlds.

ice coverage · Nov 24, 2012

R.D. said:
Also, a new SI article concerning Wagner's progress up to this point:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/20...neuve/11/22/ashley-wagner/?xid=si_mostpopular

Thx for posting this SI link re Wagner.

drivingmissdaisy · Nov 24, 2012

R.D. said:
So...after NHK, how are you all feeling?

I think Nagasu's NHK total is now 2nd best for Americans behind Wagner's score at TEB. A solid effort by her and it looks like she'll fully be in the mix for a World team spot as expected.

I still think she's, at best, 3rd. The UR's are becoming a huge problem; yes they were better here but that isn't to say they will be at Nationals. Gracie can accrue so many points with her jumps that Mirai isn't going to make up the difference unless she rotates everything.

R.D. · Nov 24, 2012

drivingmissdaisy said:
I still think she's, at best, 3rd. The UR's are becoming a huge problem; yes they were better here but that isn't to say they will be at Nationals. Gracie can accrue so many points with her jumps that Mirai isn't going to make up the difference unless she rotates everything.

I do have Gold ahead of Nagasu on my list, again assuming Wagner at #1. It's not really a slam dunk, though- Gold has shown she is susceptible to nerves and a meltdown IS possible from her (SC). Nagasu seems to be picking up some consistency, plus she's already got experience from 2010. Still, based on overall results and scoring trends, I give Gold the nod here.

And Nagasu has always struggled with UR - remember '10 US Nationals? That's how Flatt won over her even though just about everyone thought she won.

Mathman · Nov 24, 2012

Experts on skating technique can correct me, but... To me it looks like Mirai's problem on jump landings is that she reaches down with her toe-pick too soon. The toe-pick touches the ice when she's still far from complete rotation, so it's still an under-rotation even if she gets straightened out by the time she has full weight on her blade. (Something like that?)

Selene · Nov 24, 2012

The US Ladies did really well on the Grand Prix circuit (bar Flatt and Zhang.) Wagner was the best performer on the circuit, and Gold, Gao, Zawadzki, and Nagasu each earned a medal. The strong showing by the US Ladies on the Grand Prix circuit shows that the US Ladies really do deserve 3 spots at Worlds. The USFSA's disastrous decision to send Czisny to Worlds last season (when it was obvious to everyone that she was going to bomb) cost a deserving US Lady a chance to compete at Worlds. I can't believe only one of Gold, Zawadzki, Gao and Nagasu will get to go to Worlds. They all deserve to be there.

I feel really good about US Ladies at the moment, especially when you consider all of the promising junior skaters (Wang, Keiser, etc.) as well.

Mrs. P · Nov 24, 2012

Mathman said:
Experts on skating technique can correct me, but... To me it looks like Mirai's problem on jump landings is that she reaches down with her toe-pick too soon. The toe-pick touches the ice when she's still far from complete rotation, so it's still an under-rotation even if she gets straightened out by the time she has full weight on her blade. (Something like that?)

I agree that's part of the issue. The other is that she has a slight leg wrap that might cloud her landings a bit.

Layfan · Nov 24, 2012

Mrs. P said:
I agree that's part of the issue. The other is that she has a slight leg wrap that might cloud her landings a bit.

No so much at NHK but at COC I thought her leg wrap was a bit more noticeable this season. Or is it just me?

Anyhow, I'm so happy Mirai is having a decent season so far. Her SP is fun.

emma · Nov 24, 2012

I noticed the lag wrap - which might contribute (but might not - Ito was famous for them) - this year; and especially this comp and was wondering if it was new or old and I hadn't noticed before.

I'm not sure I understand what MM is saying - are you/is he saying that she is reaching for the landing too soon - like stretching for it by pointing her toes too much? Or is this about not getting enough height?

State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

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