State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season
- Thread starter R.D.
- Start date
She will have to have pristine jumps to have things not reviewed, unfortunately for her, because her reputation will proceed her and anything that is remotely marginal WILL be scrutinized.
Agreed. I'm hoping her team will work on not having her reach for the ice too soon. You sense the fact she would have most of those jumps ratified if she did not have that toe pick in the way!
Actually, in my experience, it's MUCH EASIER to skate right after someone has killed it and the roof has been blown off the building. You can absorb ALL of that energy and use it for yourself -- there is a TON of energy in the building right after someone has killed it. Yes, you have to block out that score and placement (if they are being announced) but there's just something about the response for that previous skater as you take the ice that carries you. Personally, my best performances are typically right after someone else has totally killed it. The great thing about having the person before you kill it is the crowd is already "warmed up" for you and the energy level is SUPER high.
Interesting...I guess everyone is different!
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2010
She will have to have pristine jumps to have things not reviewed, unfortunately for her, because her reputation will proceed her and anything that is remotely marginal WILL be scrutinized.
Anyone would have those loops downgraded, not just someone being scrutinized. She is a full 1/2 turn short, if not more.
The Mirai I saw at NHK skated her FS blank-faced from start to finish. Sure, she landed her jumps, but she seemed a little slow and there was no sign of zest or enthusiasm until the last 10 seconds or so. There was no "IT" factor whatsoever in her performance. She has to show that she WANTS it if she's going to place top two at Nationals.
Adding my ITA to Ashley appearing more confident that other champs. She gets very nervous like everyone else but she clearly wants to be the "it" girl and the favorite and that is a great quality. Actually, to be fair, Rachael Flatt also was not uncomfortable being the frontrunner but her problems and decline had other reasons.
If Ashley does go for the 3-3 she should defo do it at the GPF and based on how it goes there decide whether to do it for Nationals. I don't think she should skate cautiously at national but I don't think she needs the 3-3 to win (or get 2nd) and it would such a shame if a botched attempt cost her a spot on the world team.
And as for Mirai, I hope she gets to go to worlds but I agree that she has been robotic until the very last moments of her skates and I hope that changes at nationals. Great to see her signature spin is back on track though.
If Ashley does go for the 3-3 she should defo do it at the GPF and based on how it goes there decide whether to do it for Nationals. I don't think she should skate cautiously at national but I don't think she needs the 3-3 to win (or get 2nd) and it would such a shame if a botched attempt cost her a spot on the world team.
And as for Mirai, I hope she gets to go to worlds but I agree that she has been robotic until the very last moments of her skates and I hope that changes at nationals. Great to see her signature spin is back on track though.
- Joined
- Mar 27, 2010
The first loop was very close to rotated. The second loop was cheated a lot more, but a little less than one half.
Most people had Flatt and Wagner as the frontrunners for Vancouver (remember Wagner qualified for GPF), with Cohen being a wild card. I think few people expected Nagasu to seriously contend as she had a mediocre GP that season, IIRC.
The best champions thrive under the pressure. Unfortunately Nagasu seems to be missing this trait. She got lucky in 2010- we'll have to see if she'll get lucky again (or she builds some reliability & consistency).
She may not be tearing the roof off with her recent performances but it's certainly better than she was doing last year. An upward trajectory is always a good thing and that's what you want happening.
Wagner was quoted in one of these numerous articles on her that she will try for the 3-3 at the GPF. She has nothing to lose...besides, if you want to be a champion, you must take the risk (unless your name is Yuna Kim, of course). She really needs to get it in and get comfortable with it in competition- if she goes for it at the GPF and misses it, it's not a travesty. Even at Nationals she can probably get away with missing the 3-3...it's at worlds that she will need it for sure, or miss the final group. It is essential for her to get in that final FS group so she will get the score she deserves...
- Joined
- Oct 22, 2005
I thought the jump calls were lenient if your name was "Asada" at NHK but not for others in that I felt Asada had some borderline jumps she got full credit for that Nagasu and Suzuki had called which were the same quality (quantity?) of rotation.
My point was Nagasu has been a serial offender and has a "reputation" of under-rotating jumps, so unless her jumps are completely pristine and clearly clean, she's going to get reviews called and in slow motion, 9/10, the tech panel will nail the skater as there is typically a reason for the review and under slow motion scrutiny, it will be found. Please don't muddy my comment with implying I thought she was unfairly reviewed at NHK; I never said or implied that. I was more saying that for her to be in the mix for a World spot, she will need to make her jump rotations VERY clean and will not get any benefit of the doubt on jump cleanliness which probably is going to cost her between 2 and 4 points (minimum) in base value plus associated GOEs.
NHK seemed to be an overscored event beyond Suzuki's LP in a lot of people's estimation, so I am witholding judgment on Nagasu being "back" until Nationals and we can see her versus the other top American ladies.
- Joined
- Aug 27, 2003
Mirai's bronze at NHK was her best result in a while, and I was glad to see her skate better. But the truth is, she still didn't skate great. The underrotated jumps are a huge problem. And her general presentation still isn't where it should be. She skated flat again, as if she were focusing only on the jumps. I think the program is not helping her. The music has a mournful feel, it's just not exciting or uplifting, and the choreography is not memorable. The only part of the program I thoroughly enjoyed was her wonderful final spin. I find watching Mirai a bit depressing at this point. When I think back to that effervescent, musical, joyous skater we all fell in love with, it's like--what happened?
I think I am hoping to see Christina Gao get the second spot on the U.S. team this year. I think right now, Christina offers a nice consistency and maturity in her programs, while still being a skater definitely improving and on the rise. I like Gracie Gold, but I don't know if she's really ready for Worlds this year. She is so young and inexperienced and, at times, it really shows. I don't like the fact that she's had a lot of mistakes and popped jumps in her long programs. That could be disastrous at Worlds, especially with so much on the line for next season. I think what I'd like to see for Gracie is a bronze at Nationals, a 4CC assignment, and continued growth next season. As for Mirai, I just don't think her programs and overall package this year are good enough. I personally prefer Christina's programs, and I think Christina's chances of hitting the programs well are as good or better than Mirai's. Mirai does have a stronger international rep, but it's not significant enough to justify her being on the team solely for that.
Of course it all depends on the actual performances at Nationals, and maybe Mirai will skate great there and others will bomb, in which case so be it. But, just based on the season so far, Christina is my early choice for that #2 spot.
I think I am hoping to see Christina Gao get the second spot on the U.S. team this year. I think right now, Christina offers a nice consistency and maturity in her programs, while still being a skater definitely improving and on the rise. I like Gracie Gold, but I don't know if she's really ready for Worlds this year. She is so young and inexperienced and, at times, it really shows. I don't like the fact that she's had a lot of mistakes and popped jumps in her long programs. That could be disastrous at Worlds, especially with so much on the line for next season. I think what I'd like to see for Gracie is a bronze at Nationals, a 4CC assignment, and continued growth next season. As for Mirai, I just don't think her programs and overall package this year are good enough. I personally prefer Christina's programs, and I think Christina's chances of hitting the programs well are as good or better than Mirai's. Mirai does have a stronger international rep, but it's not significant enough to justify her being on the team solely for that.
Of course it all depends on the actual performances at Nationals, and maybe Mirai will skate great there and others will bomb, in which case so be it. But, just based on the season so far, Christina is my early choice for that #2 spot.
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2010
I thought the jump calls were lenient if your name was "Asada" at NHK but not for others in that I felt Asada had some borderline jumps she got full credit for that Nagasu and Suzuki had called which were the same quality (quantity?) of rotation.
I agree with you. I love Mao but her SP flip was > 1/4 short of rotation. Mao does get downgrades but I think maybe they were lenient because it's in Japan. But Mirai's loops weren't even marginally close in replay, if you're counting where her toe pick touches down. I wonder if she didn't do the three turns if she could maybe get a more secure take-off and be able to get a tighter position in the air.
Major problem I have with Gao is her tendency to be mediocre in the SP. If she has one of her typical 52-53 point SPs she's going to be well back in the pack at worlds and will have to settle for group 2 or 3 in the FS. At least Nagasu's struggles more often than not are in the FS, and she usually puts herself in decent position after the SP.
Gold will be a question mark- she has shown signs of buckling under pressure, which is not comforting- but at the same time, if she can at least hold it together, she will score more internationally than all the other girls in question...
Well, it's certainly a good year for the American ladies to get the darned three spots back and finally medal again at worlds. It's such a strange ladies field out there. No obvious frontrunner. Mao is still ironing things out. Akiko is lovely but always vulnerable. Kirra same, even more so. Carolina's out. The Russian youngsters are up and down and taking longer to establish themselves than some thought. Alena is imploding. Kim is the biggest question mark since Sasha Cohen in 2010.
If Ashley goes to world as USA champion for sure she will be a medal favorite. Given the above described ladies field, it also seems to be a good year for newcomers like Gracie or Christina to go to worlds and make their mark. I mean, there aren't a whole lot of veteran medalist out there. Gosh, it seems like there will be few returning world medalists ... the judges might be open to fresh faces.
Still, I thought last year was a great year for the USA ladies to medal and it didn't happen so....
If Ashley goes to world as USA champion for sure she will be a medal favorite. Given the above described ladies field, it also seems to be a good year for newcomers like Gracie or Christina to go to worlds and make their mark. I mean, there aren't a whole lot of veteran medalist out there. Gosh, it seems like there will be few returning world medalists ... the judges might be open to fresh faces.
Still, I thought last year was a great year for the USA ladies to medal and it didn't happen so....
- Joined
- Feb 24, 2012
I think Ashley Wagner is the favourite to win WGM. She's got it. Confidence. Decent programs. Strong jumps no major weakness. She is skating well, consistently and with confidence and everyone else is struggling or still developing. Wagner will bring home the gold for the US and the US will have three to Sochi and all will be well. You can bet on Wagner; she knows she is the it girl now. Can you imagine to US ladies winning a medal??Okay maybe a bit of a stretch but a world champion in Ashley is in the making.
A good time to remind all that Wagner has been climbing uphill her entire career. She has NEVER been the favorite or dealt with expectations before. Remember my words when I say she's still unproven under pressure.
Having said that, the international experience she's been getting should work in her favor. Americans have been off the podium for so long and people (media & fans) are beginning to look to her to end the dry spell.
Having said that, the international experience she's been getting should work in her favor. Americans have been off the podium for so long and people (media & fans) are beginning to look to her to end the dry spell.
- Joined
- Oct 22, 2005
Oh for dog's sake, it happened ONCE at her first SGP event. Knowing this kid like I do, she'll have it together for Nationals...
- Joined
- Oct 22, 2005
Wagner has been proving herself at JO and on the GP this year. There's expectation on her as the American #1 to skate well at GP events and she has TOTALLY delivered and then some with clean enough programs that have a level of "command" she's never shown prior to becoming US Champion (it started at 4CC last year where she seemed totally invested in nailing it). She seems to be thriving on being "it" so far this season.
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2010
Perhaps, but you have to also remember that the rest of our ladies meltdown pretty regularly and that they ALL feel the pressure at Nationals. Wagner has skated consistently well in the past two years. That's why I think Wagner will win but I doubt she will be at her very best.
I think people are aware of that but merely have noticed that at least Ashley seems to want to be the favorite as opposed to skaters like Alissa and Mirai who never got comfortable in the position. Defending a national title has to be one of the hardest challenges in skating and no lady has done it since Michelle Kwan. So Ashley has her work cut out for her. Clearly, she is capable. But it's skating so....
