Last edited by ForeverFish; 12-08-2012 at 12:23 PM.
Nationals will probably be an even bigger test for Wagner than I initially expected, because not only does she have to deal with the pressure of defending her title, she now has to bounce back from this skate which surely would affect her confidence moving forward.
I have not seen the GPF skate, and I don't know if I can or will watch- but as I said earlier in the season, biggest concern for Wagner (besides peaking too soon) is staying healthy!
This performance might be a blessing for Ashley. Many times we have seen skaters have one bad performance but still have an otherwise marvelous season. She has been skating so well that, if she was going to struggle, it is good to do so now rather than at Nationals or Worlds.
I'm still worried about that fall though. I hope it doesn't affect her in the long-term. We need her (far too much to hope both Gold AND Nagasu step it up significantly like that)
Last edited by R.D.; 12-08-2012 at 12:50 PM.
I'm glad Ashley got this skate out of the way. She's human, I was wondering when she was going to make a mistake. Anyways, her score here was still higher than the SB of Nagasu and Gold, and this was very uncharacteristic of Ashley, whereas Mirai's URs and Gracies mistakes in the FS are pretty typical for them, so I'm not too worried for Ashley. She might not win Nationals but I'd be surprised if she wasn't top 2, and I think she likely will win as she'll have a PCS margin on Gold and Nagasu and is less likely to make mistakes or UR her jumps. Gold has never scored higher than 113 in the FS thus far, and Ashley got 115 with 2 falls, Mirai's scores at 2010 Olympics and 2011 4CC were high, but those competitions were also very inflated, apart from those two comps, I think her 115 from NHK was the highest she's gotten in a while. Gao can maybe hit 120 if she's perfect, but she'll need a good draw for the FS to do that, and once she makes one mistake, the scores seem to drop suddenly (as evidenced here). Zawadzki even when she's skated well in the FS internationally has never broken 110.
I don't expect Ashley to skate like this at Nationals, but even if she did, I have a hard time seeing her drop below 2nd.
I can't help but have flashbacks to 2007...and Meissner's situation. Strong in her 2 GP events, then struggles at the GPF...just about everyone thought that was out of her system and she'd be back by nationals to defend her title- only to have the same shocking 3-fall performance there (and only got to Worlds via age rules and politics)
I'm trying to say that Wagner will be facing one of the biggest tests of her career coming up at Nationals. Because face it, coming off a rough skate AND having a title to defend is not a position you want to be in.
It IS possible, though. Especially if Wagner messes up the short as is tradition at US Nationals, last year notwithstanding. Gold and Nagasu are definitely within striking range to take advantage of any mistakes Wagner makes, and perhaps even Gao if she gets her act together (won't be counting on it though). I don't see Zawadzki being a threat except perhaps gaining a couple points advantage in the SP if she nails it.I don't expect Ashley to skate like this at Nationals, but even if she did, I have a hard time seeing her drop below 2nd.
EDIT: Also, Kimmie was skating on a sprained ankle at the 2007 GPF, which in part explains her poor performance. Hopefully, Wagner didn't sustain any serious or lasting injuries as a result of her second fall.
Last edited by ForeverFish; 12-08-2012 at 02:33 PM.
Just watched Ashley's program... she really has amazing fight. She was clearly in pain after that fall on the 2A yet still pulled herself together to complete a great 3F and perform the remainder of her program. She refuses to hold back or water down her content even after things go wrong and I find it so admirable.
I hope others can learn from her example; she went for that 3F at the end and because of it won a silver instead of a bronze.
Last edited by drivingmissdaisy; 12-08-2012 at 02:31 PM.
According to a quote from the USFS recap, Wagner's injury is a "hip pointer" (explained here on Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hip_pointer and here: http://www.coreperformance.com/knowl...-injuries.html, scroll down a little)
sounds like it may put her off the ice for a couple of weeks perhaps, but it is not serious or career-ending.
Agreed- although she probably won't need the 3-3 in the SP. She may want to go for the 2A/3T in the FS though. I think a clean SP is more important above all at Nationals because you don't want to dig yourself a hole to climb out of. Wagner would know that fact better than anyone else!To repeat as national champion, she'll need everything she's been showing at her GP events, plus a solid 3-3, plus nerves from the other competitors (Gold and Nagasu in particular).