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Thread: State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

  1. #661
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nadia01 View Post
    Her second fall was VERY bad. She fell forward, splat on her pelvis, it looked like. I thought she was going to WD b/c she was visibly wincing. I hope she isn't injured b/c she kept massaging the spot after it was over & she seemed to be limping a bit.
    :( Uh oh, that's not good.

    ETA: without her, you can basically shelf any lingering hopes for 3 spots in Sochi
    Last edited by R.D.; 12-08-2012 at 11:13 AM.

  2. #662
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    :( Uh oh, that's not good.

    ETA: without her, you can basically shelf any lingering hopes for 3 spots in Sochi
    She completed her program and landed her last jump--a 3F--without any visible problems. I'm hoping that if it is an injury, it'll be minor enough that she won't have any trouble competing at Nats. Of course, a healthy Wagner would be the best outcome after that second fall.
    Last edited by ForeverFish; 12-08-2012 at 11:23 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    Unfortunately Wagner had a bit of an uncharacteristic result in the FS as I heard she fell twice. So there you go, nobody is unbeatable. And she's not a lock for a repeat Nationals title by ANY means...
    If Wagner makes the same mistakes at Nats while the others are clean, I'd agree that the likely gold medalists would be Gold or Nagasu. I've been expecting problems with the jumps in the second half of her program ever since SA--she seems to have to fight for the landing every time on the 3Lo-2A.

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    Nationals will probably be an even bigger test for Wagner than I initially expected, because not only does she have to deal with the pressure of defending her title, she now has to bounce back from this skate which surely would affect her confidence moving forward.

    I have not seen the GPF skate, and I don't know if I can or will watch- but as I said earlier in the season, biggest concern for Wagner (besides peaking too soon) is staying healthy!

  5. #665
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    Nationals will probably be an even bigger test for Wagner than I initially expected, because not only does she have to deal with the pressure of defending her title, she now has to bounce back from this skate which surely would affect her confidence moving forward.

    I have not seen the GPF skate, and I don't know if I can or will watch- but as I said earlier in the season, biggest concern for Wagner (besides peaking too soon) is staying healthy!
    Ditto. I think she needs to work on her jumps. They did not look very good today.

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    This performance might be a blessing for Ashley. Many times we have seen skaters have one bad performance but still have an otherwise marvelous season. She has been skating so well that, if she was going to struggle, it is good to do so now rather than at Nationals or Worlds.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    If Wagner makes the same mistakes at Nats while the others are clean, I'd agree that the likely gold medalists would be Gold or Nagasu. I've been expecting problems with the jumps in the second half of her program ever since SA--she seems to have to fight for the landing every time on the 3Lo-2A.
    I disagree. If Wagner does a SP like Nationals she will be a huge lead over all other going clean, only maybe Zawadzki who is a great SP skater would come close, Gold and Nagasu would be way behind. Then in the LP they would protect her with PCS. Wagner will have to make more mistakes than she did here to lose Nationals, there is no way the USFSA wants anyone else as U.S Champion going to Worlds right now, and with good reason.

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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    This performance might be a blessing for Ashley. Many times we have seen skaters have one bad performance but still have an otherwise marvelous season. She has been skating so well that, if she was going to struggle, it is good to do so now rather than at Nationals or Worlds.
    EXACTLY. Better now than when it really counts. Having said that, it will be up to her to prove that this was a fluke skate and not the beginning of a downhill ride...(because how many times have we seen that before with the current US women...)

    I'm still worried about that fall though. I hope it doesn't affect her in the long-term. We need her (far too much to hope both Gold AND Nagasu step it up significantly like that)
    Last edited by R.D.; 12-08-2012 at 11:50 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    I disagree. If Wagner does a SP like Nationals she will be a huge lead over all other going clean, only maybe Zawadzki who is a great SP skater would come close, Gold and Nagasu would be way behind. Then in the LP they would protect her with PCS. Wagner will have to make more mistakes than she did here to lose Nationals, there is no way the USFSA wants anyone else as U.S Champion going to Worlds right now, and with good reason.
    Gold is a great SP skater also, and she has something Wagner doesn't--a 3-3 that she lands with near-perfect consistency. Of course, I fully expect Wagner to add a 3-3 to both programs by January, but it's unfair to project an imperfect Wagner over the rest of the field when, if clean, Gold and the others will be scoring 180+ and coming within range of Wagner's winning score last year. Regardless of what the USFSA wants, Wagner will still need to show at Nats that she's the one to pull for. Like R.D. said, she's by no means a lock for the championship, and she can't afford any more GPF-sized mistakes.

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    I'm glad Ashley got this skate out of the way. She's human, I was wondering when she was going to make a mistake. Anyways, her score here was still higher than the SB of Nagasu and Gold, and this was very uncharacteristic of Ashley, whereas Mirai's URs and Gracies mistakes in the FS are pretty typical for them, so I'm not too worried for Ashley. She might not win Nationals but I'd be surprised if she wasn't top 2, and I think she likely will win as she'll have a PCS margin on Gold and Nagasu and is less likely to make mistakes or UR her jumps. Gold has never scored higher than 113 in the FS thus far, and Ashley got 115 with 2 falls, Mirai's scores at 2010 Olympics and 2011 4CC were high, but those competitions were also very inflated, apart from those two comps, I think her 115 from NHK was the highest she's gotten in a while. Gao can maybe hit 120 if she's perfect, but she'll need a good draw for the FS to do that, and once she makes one mistake, the scores seem to drop suddenly (as evidenced here). Zawadzki even when she's skated well in the FS internationally has never broken 110.

    I don't expect Ashley to skate like this at Nationals, but even if she did, I have a hard time seeing her drop below 2nd.

  11. #671
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    I'm glad Ashley got this skate out of the way. She's human, I was wondering when she was going to make a mistake. Anyways, her score here was still higher than the SB of Nagasu and Gold, and this was very uncharacteristic of Ashley, whereas Mirai's URs and Gracies mistakes in the FS are pretty typical for them, so I'm not too worried for Ashley. She might not win Nationals but I'd be surprised if she wasn't top 2, and I think she likely will win as she'll have a PCS margin on Gold and Nagasu and is less likely to make mistakes or UR her jumps. Gold has never scored higher than 113 in the FS thus far, and Ashley got 115 with 2 falls, Mirai's scores at 2010 Olympics and 2011 4CC were high, but those competitions were also very inflated, apart from those two comps, I think her 115 from NHK was the highest she's gotten in a while. Gao can maybe hit 120 if she's perfect, but she'll need a good draw for the FS to do that, and once she makes one mistake, the scores seem to drop suddenly (as evidenced here). Zawadzki even when she's skated well in the FS internationally has never broken 110.

    I don't expect Ashley to skate like this at Nationals, but even if she did, I have a hard time seeing her drop below 2nd.
    That depends on whether you're only looking at ISU competitions, in which case, her FS PB was 113.85 at Junior Worlds. Last year at Junior Nats, though, Gracie scored a 118.17 in her FS--a score she's likely to surpass at Nats this year.

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    I can't help but have flashbacks to 2007...and Meissner's situation. Strong in her 2 GP events, then struggles at the GPF...just about everyone thought that was out of her system and she'd be back by nationals to defend her title- only to have the same shocking 3-fall performance there (and only got to Worlds via age rules and politics)

    I'm trying to say that Wagner will be facing one of the biggest tests of her career coming up at Nationals. Because face it, coming off a rough skate AND having a title to defend is not a position you want to be in.

    I don't expect Ashley to skate like this at Nationals, but even if she did, I have a hard time seeing her drop below 2nd.
    It IS possible, though. Especially if Wagner messes up the short as is tradition at US Nationals, last year notwithstanding. Gold and Nagasu are definitely within striking range to take advantage of any mistakes Wagner makes, and perhaps even Gao if she gets her act together (won't be counting on it though). I don't see Zawadzki being a threat except perhaps gaining a couple points advantage in the SP if she nails it.

  13. #673
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    I can't help but have flashbacks to 2007...and Meissner's situation. Strong in her 2 GP events, then struggles at the GPF...just about everyone thought that was out of her system and she'd be back by nationals to defend her title- only to have the same shocking 3-fall performance there (and only got to Worlds via age rules and politics)

    I'm trying to say that Wagner will be facing one of the biggest tests of her career coming up at Nationals. Because face it, coming off a rough skate AND having a title to defend is not a position you want to be in.

    It IS possible, though. Especially if Wagner messes up the short as is tradition at US Nationals, last year notwithstanding. Gold and Nagasu are definitely within striking range to take advantage of any mistakes Wagner makes, and perhaps even Gao if she gets her act together (won't be counting on it though). I don't see Zawadzki being a threat except perhaps gaining a couple points advantage in the SP if she nails it.
    I hope this doesn't happen to Wagner, especially since she's just now proving herself a serious contender on the international stage, but you're right that she's not in the homestretch yet. To repeat as national champion, she'll need everything she's been showing at her GP events, plus a solid 3-3, plus nerves from the other competitors (Gold and Nagasu in particular).

    EDIT: Also, Kimmie was skating on a sprained ankle at the 2007 GPF, which in part explains her poor performance. Hopefully, Wagner didn't sustain any serious or lasting injuries as a result of her second fall.
    Last edited by ForeverFish; 12-08-2012 at 01:33 PM.

  14. #674
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    Just watched Ashley's program... she really has amazing fight. She was clearly in pain after that fall on the 2A yet still pulled herself together to complete a great 3F and perform the remainder of her program. She refuses to hold back or water down her content even after things go wrong and I find it so admirable.

    I hope others can learn from her example; she went for that 3F at the end and because of it won a silver instead of a bronze.
    Last edited by drivingmissdaisy; 12-08-2012 at 01:31 PM.

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    According to a quote from the USFS recap, Wagner's injury is a "hip pointer" (explained here on Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hip_pointer and here: http://www.coreperformance.com/knowl...-injuries.html, scroll down a little)

    sounds like it may put her off the ice for a couple of weeks perhaps, but it is not serious or career-ending.

    To repeat as national champion, she'll need everything she's been showing at her GP events, plus a solid 3-3, plus nerves from the other competitors (Gold and Nagasu in particular).
    Agreed- although she probably won't need the 3-3 in the SP. She may want to go for the 2A/3T in the FS though. I think a clean SP is more important above all at Nationals because you don't want to dig yourself a hole to climb out of. Wagner would know that fact better than anyone else!

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