State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

[emma]

Just watched Ashley's program... she really has amazing fight. She was clearly in pain after that fall on the 2A yet still pulled herself together to complete a great 3F and perform the remainder of her program. She refuses to hold back or water down her content even after things go wrong and I find it so admirable.

I hope others can learn from her example; she went for that 3F at the end and because of it won a silver instead of a bronze.

I finally worked up the courage to watch this - and the fall was nasty. But, I really agree with you - she really pulled herself together and fought for the program. That, to me, is a great sign of a well prepared competitor.

According to a quote from the USFS recap, Wagner's injury is a "hip pointer" (explained here on Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hip_pointer and here: http://www.coreperformance.com/knowl...-injuries.html, scroll down a little)

sounds like it may put her off the ice for a couple of weeks perhaps, but it is not serious or career-ending.



Agreed- although she probably won't need the 3-3 in the SP. She may want to go for the 2A/3T in the FS though. I think a clean SP is more important above all at Nationals because you don't want to dig yourself a hole to climb out of. Wagner would know that fact better than anyone else!

Thanks for the info, RD.

[senatormls]

Wagner all the way!!! Polished and poised and a fantastic competitor. I like her 'take charge' attitude. No nerves for this young lady.

[silverlake22]

That depends on whether you're only looking at ISU competitions, in which case, her FS PB was 113.85 at Junior Worlds. Last year at Junior Nats, though, Gracie scored a 118.17 in her FS--a score she's likely to surpass at Nats this year.

I'm talking about internationals. It gives you a better idea of what to expect at Worlds. Plus if Ashley can get 115 for a 2 fall skate at the GPF, you can imagine that number would be higher at Nationals, whereas I know it was a junior program, but Gracie's almost 114 was for a nearly perfect skate, so it gives you an idea of comparison on the international stage. Also Gold only had one error in her junior FS at Nats last year, was the clear favorite coming in, class of the field, and didn't have the pressure of competing against ladies who have been 4th at Worlds and the Olympics for a spot on the World Team that decides how many girls get to go to the Olympics. So far this season, she's been averaging quite a few more mistakes than last season, and the pressure will certainly be more. I don't doubt that she can't skate well in spite of it, but I don't know if it's fair to say she's bound to top her score from last Nationals, where she landed 7 triples and probably also benefitted from "wow" factor standing out so much from the rest of the field in what was otherwise a somewhat lackluster event, which likely helped her GOE and PCS. We can expect with a strong skate her PCS at Nationals might be a few points higher than internationally, but even so, add that to the skates she's had so far thus season, and that's still not quite 118+, even with the spiral sequence. Clean, sure I think Gracie could score 125 to 130, but she's been having issues landing more than 4 or 5 solid triples in her FS so far this season so I wouldn't say it's a set bet.

[silverlake22]

I can't help but have flashbacks to 2007...and Meissner's situation. Strong in her 2 GP events, then struggles at the GPF...just about everyone thought that was out of her system and she'd be back by nationals to defend her title- only to have the same shocking 3-fall performance there (and only got to Worlds via age rules and politics)

I'm trying to say that Wagner will be facing one of the biggest tests of her career coming up at Nationals. Because face it, coming off a rough skate AND having a title to defend is not a position you want to be in.



It IS possible, though. Especially if Wagner messes up the short as is tradition at US Nationals, last year notwithstanding. Gold and Nagasu are definitely within striking range to take advantage of any mistakes Wagner makes, and perhaps even Gao if she gets her act together (won't be counting on it though). I don't see Zawadzki being a threat except perhaps gaining a couple points advantage in the SP if she nails it.

Kimmie's issues were due to post-puberty body changes and bad jump technique. Her 3-3s were never fully around when she was a toothpick, then she filled out and got a hips and thighs and the 3-3s vanished and other triples didn't work so well either. Kimmie was also a teenager that went to the Olympics at 16 and then won Worlds at 16. She achieved what most people aim to achieve in a long career before she had finished maturing physically. The situation is in no way similar to Ashley, who is 21 and far beyond any puberty/post-puberty dramatic body changes. She's never been to the Olympics and has only gone to Worlds twice, she was the almost girl for years, and now she's buckled down, gotten in great shape, and shown she's determined to get to the top. So far, it's been a convincing ride. I know her content is not the most ambitious but I for one was at least wondering how long it was going to be before she made a mistake in her FS. That time finally arrived, she is human, it happens. Much like Yuna's struggle at 2009 SA or Miki's 5th place at 2011 GPF, I don't think this is setting the stage for things to come, but rather an experience showing she is human and taking some of the pressure of being a leader and expected to continually reel off great performances every time out as that has been the trend. Yuna wasn't back to her old self by GPF, but she still won, then won the Olympics in dominant fashion, and Miki after bombing the GPF SP and only finishing 5th, came back to win Japanese Nats, 4CC, and Worlds. Ashley got the monkey off her back, this was bound to happen, I don't think in any way she's going to start a trend of falling twice in every FS now, and if she does, I for one will be shocked. She's come too far, her jumps have gotten very consistent, she has the right mindset - this is a fluke, not a trend, I think, whereas for Kimmie that was the start of a steep decline from the top.

[R.D.]

Ashley got the monkey off her back, this was bound to happen, I don't think in any way she's going to start a trend of falling twice in every FS now, and if she does, I for one will be shocked. She's come too far, her jumps have gotten very consistent, she has the right mindset - this is a fluke, not a trend, I think, whereas for Kimmie that was the start of a steep decline from the top.

Let's only hope that is so.

[ForeverFish]

According to a quote from the USFS recap, Wagner's injury is a "hip pointer" (explained here on Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hip_pointer and here: http://www.coreperformance.com/knowl...-injuries.html, scroll down a little)

sounds like it may put her off the ice for a couple of weeks perhaps, but it is not serious or career-ending.

Let's hope not--Nats isn't so far away that she can water down her training.

[R.D.]

Let's hope not--Nats isn't so far away that she can water down her training.

At the same time it would be a REALLY BAD idea to rush back into training after something like that because it may take longer to heal (and you don't want to risk further damage).

[ForeverFish]

At the same time it would be a REALLY BAD idea to rush back into training after something like that because it may take longer to heal (and you don't want to risk further damage).

Agreed--that's why I hope her injury isn't so severe that it'll put her off training and cause regression. Of course, in the case that it is serious, it would be much better to give it a rest until the danger is gone, and I doubt that Nicks would let her train on injury when so much this season hinges on her health--Worlds in particular, where she stands a very good chance of medaling.

[Reginald]

At nationals, it will be interesting to see how Caroline Zhang performs.

[Mrs. P]

Now that GPF is done and Nationals is likely the next competition, here's a round up of scores among the U.S. Ladies (senior only domestically, so I'll include junior scores here too).

But for the sake of not having too long of a thread. I'll do GP series here. Then Senior B/JGP in a separate thread.



GP Series Overall

Ashley Wagner 190.63 -TEB
Ashley Wagner 188.37 -SA
Ashley Wagner 181.93 - GPF
Mirai Nagasu 176.68 - NHK
Gracie Gold 175.03 - COR
Christina Gao 174.25 - SA
Agnes Zadwadzki 166.61 - COR
===median =====
Christina Gao 165.74
Mirai Nagasu 163.46 - COC
Agnes Zawadzki 160.37 - NHK
Christina Gao 154.54 - GPF
Gracie Gold 151.57 - SC
Caroline Zhang 149.87 - SC
Caroline Zhang 138.21 - COR


GP Series SP
Ashley Wagner 66.04 (34.95; 31.49) - GPF
Ashley Wagner 63.09 (32.52; 30.57) - TEB
Gracie Gold 62.16 (34.92; 27.24) – COR
Mirai Nagasu 61.18 (32.36; 28.82) - NHK
Ashley Wagner 60.61 (30.58; 30.03) - SA
Agnes Zawadzki 60.18 (33.01; 27.17) - COR
Mirai Nagasu 59.76 (31.04; 28.72 ) – COC
======median ========
Christina Gao 56.63 (31.01; 25.62) –SA
Agnes Zadwadzki 55.02 (27.73; 27.29) - NHK
Caroline Zhang 52.97 (27.67; 25.30) -SC
Christina Gao 52.25 (26.48; 26.07) - TEB
Gracie Gold 52.19 (27.53; 25.66) - SC
Christina Gao 48.56 (22.30; 26.26) - GPF
Caroline Zhang 46.15 (21.84; 24.31) - COR

GP Series SP TES
Ashley Wagner 35.95 - GPF
Gracie Gold 34.92 – COR
Agnes Zawadzki 33.01 - COR
Ashley Wagner 32.52 - TEB
Mirai Nagasu 32.36 - NHK
Mirai Nagasu 31.04 – COC
Christina Gao 31.01 –SA
======median ========
Ashley Wagner 30.58 - SA
Agnes Zawadzki 27.73 - NHK
Caroline Zhang 27.67 - SC
Gracie Gold 27.53 - SC
Christina Gao 26.48 - TEB
Christina Gao 22.30 - GPF
Caroline Zhang 21.84 - COR

GP Series SP PCS
PCS
Ashley Wagner 31.49 - GPF
Ashley Wagner 30.57 - TEB
Ashley Wagner 30.03 - SA
Mirai Nagasu 28.82 - NHK
Mirai Nagasu 28.72 – COC
Agnes Zawadzki 27.29 - NHK
Gracie Gold 27.24 - COR
=====median =========
Agnes Zawadzki 27.17 - COR
Christina Gao 26.26 - GPF
Christina Gao 26.07 - TEB
Gracie Gold 25.66 - SC
Christina Gao 25.62 –SA
Caroline Zhang 25.30 - SC
Caroline Zhang 24.31 - COR


GP Series FS
Ashley Wagner 127.76 (63.83; 63.93) - SA
Ashley Wagner 127.54 (62.91; 64.63) - TEB
Christina Gao 117.62 (60.64; 56.98) -SA
Mirai Nagasu 115.50 (56.36; 59.14) - NHK
Ashley Wanger 115.49 (54.93; 62.56) - GPF
Gracie Gold 112.87 (54.77; 58.10) – COR
Christina Gao 112.16 (57.25; 54.91) - TEB
====median ==========
Agnes Zawadzki 106.43 (51.10; 55.33) - COR
Agnes Zawadzki 105.35 (51.61; 54.74) - NHK
Christina Gao 105.98 (55.90; 51.08) - GPF
Mirai Nagasu 103.70 (45.89; 57.81) - COC
Gracie Gold 99.38 (48.02; 51.36) - SC
Caroline Zhang 96.90 (46.96; 49.94) - SC
Caroline Zhang 92.06 (48.57; 43.49) - COR


GP Series FS TES
Ashley Wagner 63.83 – SA
Ashley Wagner 62.91 – TEB
Christina Gao 60.63 -SA
Christina Gao 57.25 - TEB
Mirai Nagasu 56.36 - NHK
Christina Gao 55.90 - GPF
Ashley Wagner 54.94 - GPF
=====median =========
Gracie Gold – 54.77 - COR
Agnes Zawadzki 51.61- NHK
Agnes Zawadzki 51.10 - COR
Gracie Gold 48.92 - SC
Caroline Zhang 48.57 - COR
Caroline Zhang 46.96 - SC
Mirai Nagasu - 45.89 - COC


GP Series FS PCS
Ashley Wagner 64.63 - TEB
Ashley Wagner 63.93 - SA
Ashley Wagner 62.56 - GPF
Mirai Nagasu 59.14 - NHK
Gracie Gold 58.10 - COR
Mirai Nagasu 57.81 - COC
Christina Gao 56.98 -SA
=====median =========
Agnes Zawadzki 55.33 - COR
Christina Gao 54.91 - TEB
Agnes Zawadski 54.74 - NHK
Gracie Gold 51.36 - SC
Christina Gao 51.08 - GPF
Caroilne Zhang 49.94- SC
Caroline Zhang 43.49 - COR

[R.D.]

Interesting. Thanks for putting that list together.

Now, I want you guys to take a look at something. Those who think Wagner is unbeatable nationally:

Ashley Wagner 181.93 - GPF
Mirai Nagasu 176.68 - NHK
Gracie Gold 175.03 - COR
Christina Gao 174.25 - SA

Nether Nagasu nor Gold were perfect at their events and they're only 5 pts off Wagner's GPF score. Meaning, should Wagner have a repeat of GPF at Nationals (let's hope not, but you never know), and Gold and/or Nagasu hits that night, Wagner could definitely find herself 2nd or perhaps even 3rd. If Wagner messes up the SP in addition, the other two can probably beat her even with a mistake of their own. I think it's safe to say Gao is probably out of reach since SA was her absolute best and she has not been able to match that since. Even if she does match SA, Wagner would probably have to melt down for Gao to have any chance of overtaking her.

[Mrs. P]

Here are the senior B scores. One must wonder, why the heck did they give assignments to skaters who were on the GP series? Was there nobody else they could send?

Obviously inflated (Agnes Z. getting the highest PCS out of those on senior B competitions is a bit laughable), but here they are for the record.

Senior B Overall

Agnes Zawadzki 172.95 – U.S. Int’l Classic
Gracie Gold 171.15 – U.S. Int’l Classic
MIrai Nagasu 163.09 – Finlandia Trophy
Caroline Zhang 124.13 – Nebelhorn Trophy

Senior B SP
Agnes Zawadzki 65.25 (35.44; 29.80) – U.S. Int’l Classic
Gracie Gold 59.37 (29.97; 29.40) – U.S. Int’l Classic
Mirai Nagasu 52.75 (26.20; 27.55) – Finlandia Trophy
Caroline Zhang 45.43 (22.49; 22.94) – Nebelhorn Trophy

Senior B SP TES
Agnes Zawadzki 35.44 – U.S. Int’l Classic
Gracie Gold 29.97 – U.S. Int’l Classic
Mirai Nagasu 26.20 – Finlandia Trophy
Caroline Zhang 22.59 – Nebelhorn Trophy

Senior B SP PCS
Agnes Zawadzki – 29.80 U.S. Int’l Classic
Gracie Gold – 29.40 U.S. Int’l Classic
Mirai Nagasu – 27.55 Finlandia Trophy
Caroline Zhang- 22.95 – Nebelhorn Trophy

Senior B FS
Gracie Gold 111.78 (54.92; 57.86) – U.S. Int’l Classic
Mirai Nagasu 110.34 (54.07; 57.27) – Finlandia Trophy
Agnes Zawdzki 107.71 (50.58; 58.13) – U.S. Int’l Classic
Caroline Zhang 78.70 (39.13; 42.57) – Nebelhorn Trophy

Senior B FS TES
Gracie Gold 54.92 – U.S. Int’l Classic
Mirai Nagasu 54.07 – Finlandia Trophy
Agnes Zawdzki 50.58 – U.S. Int’l Classic
Caroline Zhang 39.14 – Nebelhorn Trophy

Senior B PCS
Agnes Zawadzki 57.27 – U.S. Int’l Classic
Gracie Gold 57.86 – U.S. Int’l Classic
MIrai Nagasu – 58.13 – Finlandia Trophy
Caroline Zhang 42.57 – Nebelhorn Trophy

[Mrs. P]

Next set of data: The JGP.

The data is quite interesting, as it reveals two possible spoilers at Nationals: Hannah Miller and Angela Wang. Hannah Miller currently not have the technical content that Angela does, but she has been relatively consistent relative to Wang. It's worth noting that Miller has not been off-the-podium for ANY segment of the three JGP events she's entered in, while Wang has had to play catch up at two of her events due to poor SP scores. Hannah has also been working on various 3-3s, including 3L-3L, so it will be interesting to see if she does them at Nationals. Angela and Hannah are fairly close in PCS.

Leah Keiser could also be a spoiler, but she's so hot and cold. She show a flash of brilliance at JGP Turkey producing wht is now the fourth highest score (it was second until JGPF) in the FS and still has the highest TES in the JGP among the U.S. ladies with her program in Turkey. However, when you consider the fact that she also has two of the lowest scores in the FS (only Ashley Cain has done worse); you have to wonder which skater will show up at Nationals.

Samantha Cesario is also someone to watch. She only has one event factored, since she did so poorly in Germany due to an injury. But she did quite well at sectionals, so it will be interesting to see how she does.

The third spot for junior worlds (that is, if it is available if Gracie Gold doesn't end up getting it as some sort of consolation prize) is going to be a bloodbath.

***

JGP Overall
Hannah Miller 168.41 - JGPF
Angela Wang 162.65 - Croatia
Angela Wang 162.05- JGPF
Hannah Miller 158.52 - Austria
Samantha Cesario 157.72 Austria
Leah Keiser 156.33 - Turkey
Courtney Hicks 153.77 - USA
Hannah Miller 153.21 - Croatia
Angela Wang 150.40 - USA
Barbie Long 147.19 - Croatia
Kiri Baga 142.22 - USA
Courtney Hicks 141.38 - Croatia
Leah Keiser 141.15 – Germany
Vanessa Lam 140.89 - France
Leah Keiser 137.44 - JGPF
Ashley Cain 136.51 - Fance

JGP Short Program
Hannah Miller 59.18 (33.84; 26.22) - JGPF
Angela Wang 58.47 (34.93; 23.54) - Croatia
Hannah Miller 55.47 (31.97; 23.50) - Austria
Leah Keiser 55.14 (31.97; 23.17) – Germany
Samantha Cesario 54.38 (32.69; 21.77) - Austria
Barbie Long 52.24 (30.38; 21.86) - Slovenia
Courtney Hicks 51.36 (27.85; 23.51) -USA
Hannah Miller 51.33 (27.88; 23.45) – Croatia
Ashley Cain 51.31 (28.48; 22.83) - France
Angela Wang 51.16 (26.24; 24.92) - JGPF
Leah Keiser 50.70 (28.81; 21.89) - Turkey
Vanessa Lam 48.40 (26.92; 22.48) - France
Kiri Baga 47.80 (25.88; 22.92) - USA
Leah Keiser 47.23 (25.86; 22.37) - JGPF
Courtney Hicks 46.63 (24.34; 22.29) - Slovenia
Angela Wang 44.71 (23.34; 21.37) - USA
Samantha Cesario 42.36 (21.36; 22.00) - Germany

JGP SP TES
Angela Wang 34.93 - Croatia
Hannah Miller 33.84 – JGPF
Samantha Cesario 32.69 - Austria
Hannah Miller 31.97 – Austria
Leah Keiser 31.97 – Germany
Barbie Long 30.38 – Slovenia
Ashley Cain 28.48 - France
Hannah Miller 27.88 – Croatia
Leah Keiser 28.81 - Turkey
Courtney Hicks 27.85 – USA
Vanessa Lam 26.92 - France
Angela Wang 26.24 – JGPF
Kiri Baga 25.88 - USA
Leah Keiser 25.86 - JGPF
Courtney Hicks 24.34 – Slovenia
Angela Wang 23.35 - USA
Samantha Cesario 21.36 – Germany

JGP SP PCS
Hannah Miller 26.22 – JGPF
Angela Wang 24.24 - JGPF
Angela Wang 23.54 – Croatia
Hannah Miller 23.45 – Croatia
Courtney Hicks 23.51 - USA
Hannah Miller 23.50 – Austria
Leah Keiser 23.17 – Germany
Kiri Baga 22.92 - USA
Ashley Cain 22.83 – France
Vanessa Lam 22.48 – France
Leah Keiser 22.37 – JGPF
Courtney Hicks 22.29 - Slovniea
Samantha Cesario 22.00 - Germany
Leah Keiser 21.89 - Turkey
Barbie Long 21.86 - Slovenia
Samantha Cesario 21.77 – Austria
Angela Wang 21.37 – USA


JGP FS
Angela Wang 110.89 (58.90; 51.99) - JGPF
Hannah Miller 109.23 (56.16; 53.07) - JGPF
Angela Wang 105.69 (55.79; 49.90) - USA
Leah Keiser 105.63 (58.04; 47.59) - Turkey
Angela Wang 104.18 (55.67; 48.51) - Croatia
Samantha Cesario 103.34 (55.85; 47.49) - Austria
Hannah Miller 103.05 (54.57; 48.48) - Austria
Courtney Hicks 102.41 (51.89; 50.52) - USA
Hannah Miller 101.88 (54.56; 47.32) - Croatia
Barbie Long 94.95 (51.30; 43.65) - Slovenia
Courtney Hicks 94.75 (49.51; 45.24) - Slovenia
Vanessa Lam 99.49 (48.65; 45.84) - France
Kiri Baga 94.42 (46.71; 47.71) - USA
Leah Keiser 90.21 (46.21; 44.00) - JGPF
Leah Keiser 86.01 (43.96; 44.05) - Germany
Ashley Cain 85.20 (42.34; 46.86) - France


JGP FS TES
Leah Keiser 58.04 - Turkey
Angela Wang 58.90 – JGPF
Hannah Miler 56.15 – JGPF
Angela Wang 55.79 –USA
Angela Wang 55.67 – Croatia
Samantha Cesario 55.85 – Austria
Hannah Miller 54.57 – Austria
Hannah Miller 54.56 – Croatia
Courtney Hicks 51.89 – USA
Barbie Long 51.30 – Slovenia
Courtney Hicks 49.51 – Slovenia
Vanessa Lam 48.65 – Grance
Kiri Baga – 46.71 – USA
Leah Keiser 46.21 – JGPF
Leah Keiser – Germany
Ashley Cain – 42.35 – France

JGP FS PCS
Hannah Miller 53.07 – JGPF
Angela Wang 51.99 – JGPF
Courtney Hicks 50.52 - USA
Angela Wang 49.90 – USA
Angela Wang 48.51- Croatia
Hannah Miller 48.48 – Austria
Kiri Baga 47.71 - USA
Leah Keiser 47.59 - Turkey
Samantha Cesario 47.49 - Austria
Hannah Miller 47.32 – Croatia
Ashley Cain 46.86 - France
Vanessa Lam 45.84 - France
Courtney Hicks 45.24 – Slovenia
Leah Keiser 44.05 – Germany
Leah Keiser 44.00 – JGPF
Barbie Long 43.65- Slovenia

[Poodlepal]

I think there needs to be one female skater who steps up and stays at the top for more than one season. It's been a merry-go-round since Kimmie Meisner, with a new "star" each year who burns out just as quickly. I would hope that the judges will hold up Ashley if she makes a couple of mistakes. Usually I am opposed to that sort of thing, but from what I've seen, newcomers usually don't get on the podium on their first try. There have been too many girls who have gotten up to 4th and 5th, then didn't go to world's the next year or fell apart in some other way.

2007--Kimmie, 4th, next year 7th or so
2008- Nobody did well
2009--Rachael 5th, then fell out of judges favor or really did go downhill, never that high again
2010--Mirai 4th at Olympics, choked at Worlds, never went to world's again
2011--Alissa--5th, but came in almost dead last the next year
2012--Ashley 4th--but what now?

I would not be surprised if Ashley is too hurt to go on. That fall looked bad. I would not be surprised to see it be Gracie Gold's year to come in 4th or 5th.

[used2sk8]

How about adding in the Sectional qualifiers:

SENIOR QUALIFIERS
Easterns Ladies 1-4: Samantha Cesario 163.53, Yasmin Siraj 151.35, Haley Dunne 139.69, Joelle Forte 136.47;
Mids Ladies 1-4: Ashley Cain 161.49, Becky Bereswill 149.44, Kiri Baga 141.42, Morgan Bell 133.06;
Pacs Ladies 1-4: Vanessa Lam 177.73, Courtney Hicks 161.72, Sophia Adams 131.49, Amanda Hofmann 122.29.

Even though these are domestic, take note of the winners! Vanessa had trouble in herc JGP but came back with 168.05 (113.44 in FS) at Regionals and the highest score again at Sectionals with 118.30 in the FS. Samantha and Ashley also stayed strong!