State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

R.D. · Jan 28, 2013

The US desperately wants those 3 spots back, so it will be on BOTH Wagner and Gold to get the job done. Wagner cannot do it by herself - even if she WON worlds last year it wouldn't have been enough thanks to Czisny's epic meltdown...

A team is only as good as its weakest link. Gold has an unconvincing record and Wagner has had recent freeskate struggles. Not a good sign.

For Wagner, I'm thinking a turnout like Meissner 2008 worlds is most likely, where she falls 1 or 2 times in the free en route to a 6th or 7th place finish. Or worse (!), if the current trend is any indication....maybe it's not so far fetched to imagine a scenario where Gold is the higher finisher.

ForeverFish · Jan 28, 2013

Hmm. I'm thinking it's good for Gold to get some more international experience at 4CC before being thrust into Worlds--the USFSA knew what they were doing there. If she medals, maybe it'll boost her confidence even more. Her main struggles this season have been with nerves, and she's currently seeing a sports psychologist to refine her mental standpoint. I have no doubt she's capable of finishing in the top six or eight, but the 1 in 3 record is worrying. A SC or Nats-quality SP would bury her.

b-man · Jan 28, 2013

A month ago I thought Wagner was a lock for 3rd or 4th, with about 5 good skates in a row, marred only by the 2 fall GpF which still scored Well. Now we have two 2-fall comps in a row. Wagner is no longer a lock for 3rd or 4th, and could easily fall to 6th or 7th. I think Gold may outskate Wagner, but like at Omaha, I don't know if the judges will score her higher than Wagner, let alone people like Suzuki, Sotnikova, and Osmond. I agree Gold should go to 4CC while she is hot coming off her Omaha FS. She needs international exposure to build up her PCS, as she doesn't want to get buried after the SP due to low PCS.

Jammers · Jan 29, 2013

I just hope people don't get on Gracie if the US doesn't get the 3rd spot back. A top ten finish at her first Worlds would be good but expecting her to finish in the top 6 is asking to much i think.

koatcue · Jan 29, 2013

Jammers said:
I just hope people don't get on Gracie if the US doesn't get the 3rd spot back. A top ten finish at her first Worlds would be good but expecting her to finish in the top 6 is asking to much i think.

Everything can happen) IF other skaters won't have harder jumps/fully rotated jumps at Worlds (which is VERY likely), the youngsters can even medal..

Reginald · Jan 29, 2013

Some interesting statistics:

When leading after the short program, Rachel Flatt and Caroline Zhang are undefeated.

Ashley Wagner has lost one time when leading after the short (2009 NHK Trophy).

Alissa Czisny has lost one time when leading after the short (2002 Eastern Great Lakes Regionals).

Mirai Nagasu has given up six short program leads (2008 Junior Worlds, 2009 Cup of China, 2010 US Championships, 2010 World Championships, 2010 Cup of China, 2011 US Championships).

mskater93 · Jan 29, 2013

ForeverFish said:
Her main struggles this season have been with nerves, and she's currently seeing a sports psychologist to refine her mental standpoint. I have no doubt she's capable of finishing in the top six or eight, but the 1 in 3 record is worrying. A SC or Nats-quality SP would bury her.

I think Gold may have figured out where she needs to be mentally to put it together after watching that warm up and FS at Nationals. I saw that killer instinct on both the warm up and when she took her starting pose. She talked a bit about her mindset going out to skate the free at Nationals being - skate clean programs like I do at home, shut out the noise, the crowd, the judges, this is just like being at CID or Glacier. If her sports psych is worth the money, he/she will help her come up with a pre-competition routine to get her into the same thought process for 4C, Worlds and beyond. Alex O also talked to her about shutting out placement from her mind - don't think about your dream to be on the podium here, just go be Gracie...

drivingmissdaisy · Jan 29, 2013

mskater93 said:
I think Gold may have figured out where she needs to be mentally to put it together after watching that warm up and FS at Nationals. I saw that killer instinct on both the warm up and when she took her starting pose. She talked a bit about her mindset going out to skate the free at Nationals being - skate clean programs like I do at home, shut out the noise, the crowd, the judges, this is just like being at CID or Glacier. If her sports psych is worth the money, he/she will help her come up with a pre-competition routine to get her into the same thought process for 4C, Worlds and beyond. Alex O also talked to her about shutting out placement from her mind - don't think about your dream to be on the podium here, just go be Gracie...

Hopefully she has, but I still think being in 9th took some of the pressure off. She has impressed us for so long that it's easy to forget she's still a first year senior and still trying to figure out how to prepare to give her best performances.

kwanatic · Jan 29, 2013

drivingmissdaisy said:
Hopefully she has, but I still think being in 9th took some of the pressure off. She has impressed us for so long that it's easy to forget she's still a first year senior and still trying to figure out how to prepare to give her best performances.

Exactly. IMO there's much more pressure at the top than in 9th place.

It's easy to say I'll block everything out and focus on me and skate just like in practice...but will that mental toughness hold when she's sitting in 2nd place or 3rd place with a legitimate chance of winning? We'll see. I'm sure she's one of the favorites heading into 4CC...

Jammers · Jan 29, 2013

Gracie has about 4 international events under her belt so far. That includes being on the Junior circuit. Younger skaters like Tuk and Adelina have a lot more experience internationally. I think people forget that despite being 17 she's still getting used to this. If and when she finds her way watch out.

mskater93 · Jan 29, 2013

I bet she put MORE pressure (but a different kind) on herself being in 9th after the SP. She just has to focus on what she needs to do and forget the rest. Figure out how to get there consistently...

Mathman · Jan 29, 2013

R.D. said:
The US desperately wants those 3 spots back...

I don't know, R.D. I don't see any signs of desperation on anyone's part. Getting three spots instead of two for the Olympics benefits only one person -- the bronze medalist at 2014 Nationals. She gets to have the thrill of skating at the Olympics, the USFSA gets ???

It's not like we have three medal contenders, like Kristi, Nancy and Tonya, or Michelle, Sasha and Sarah.

FlattFan · Jan 29, 2013

The good thing is she proved she can skate a clean LP with impressive TES.
The bad thing is the expectation for that kind of LP every time she comes out.

I'm afraid she might have peaked at Nat. Whatever the outcome, I hope she can really improve her PCS. She really needs to find a program that said Gracie Gold. Not the generic that she has been doing.

I don't know how young Mao, young Yuna, young Caro get those beautiful programs and none of the US girls have any captivating programs. Don't they all go to the same choreographers?

ForeverFish · Jan 29, 2013

Mathman said:
I don't know, R.D. I don't see any signs of desperation on anyone's part. Getting three spots instead of two for the Olympics benefits only one person -- the bronze medalist at 2014 Nationals. She gets to have the thrill of skating at the Olympics, the USFSA gets ???

It's not like we have three medal contenders, like Kristi, Nancy and Tonya, or Michelle, Sasha and Sarah.

Agree. I think it's more for pride than anything else--the US used to be a huge figure skating country. At this point, besides Gracie and Ashley, I can't think of any other American lady who would stand a chance at the Olympics.

rkuang · Jan 29, 2013

Mathman said:
I don't know, R.D. I don't see any signs of desperation on anyone's part. Getting three spots instead of two for the Olympics benefits only one person -- the bronze medalist at 2014 Nationals. She gets to have the thrill of skating at the Olympics, the USFSA gets ???

It's not like we have three medal contenders, like Kristi, Nancy and Tonya, or Michelle, Sasha and Sarah.

I think a small part of them want someone to have the chance to suddenly blow everyone away and have the skate of her life at the Olympics, like Sarah. Granted, Sarah was already solid on the GP circuit.

Mathman · Jan 29, 2013

^ True. Hope springs eternal. (Although, yes, Sarah not only beat both Michelle and Irina on the Grand Prix, she was also the defending world bronze medalist.)

Maybe Michelle, Tara, and Nicole Bobek would be a good example. Conceivably Bobek could have jumped up and had the skate of her life.

rkuang · Jan 29, 2013

Mathman said:
^ True. Hope springs eternal. (Although, yes, Sarah not only beat both Michelle and Irina on the Grand Prix, she was also the defending world bronze medalist.)

Maybe Michelle, Tara, and Nicole Bobek would be a good example. Conceivably Bobek could have jumped up and had the skate of her life.

That would probably be a better example, definitely, I just think the Sarah story is what the USFS keep going back to in the back of their minds. If the US get three spots, I think they'll amp up the wild card factor in the third skater, plus two strong contenders, whatever that means.

b-man · Jan 29, 2013

Gold has improved a lot from last year to this year. Who is to say she won't improve enough by Sochi to be in competition for the podeium. I wouldn't be surprised to she her exceed Wagner in this years worlds. I just checked the season's best list which now includes European's results. The US still has 7 in the top 25, more than anyone else, as Russia has six. But only Wagner (4th) and Nagasu (10th) are in the top 10. Gold is in 12th.

dorispulaski · Jan 29, 2013

1 196.80 Mao ASADA JPN ISU Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012
2 194.71 Carolina KOSTNER ITA European Championships 2013 26.01.2013
3 193.99 Adelina SOTNIKOVA RUS European Championships 2013 26.01.2013
4 190.63 Ashley WAGNER USA ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012
5 188.85 Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA RUS European Championships 2013 26.01.2013
6 185.22 Akiko SUZUKI JPN ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 24.11.2012
7 182.86 Elena RADIONOVA RUS ISU JGP Austria 2012 15.09.2012
8 179.31 Julia LIPNITSKAIA RUS ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012
9 177.19 Kiira KORPI FIN ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
10 176.68 Mirai NAGASU USA ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 24.11.2012
11 176.45 Kaetlyn OSMOND CAN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
12 175.03 Gracie GOLD USA ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012

The Russian team will not include Radionova; she's too young.
The Russian team will not include Lipnitskaia; she was replaced by Gosvianni.
The US team will not include Nagasu. She's not on it.

So that puts Gracie up a little higher; maybe ninth.

tulosai · Jan 29, 2013

dorispulaski said:
The Russian team will not include Radionova; she's too young.
The Russian team will not include Lipnitskaia; she was replaced by Gosvianni.
The US team will not include Nagasu. She's not on it.

So that puts Gracie up a little higher; maybe ninth.

Lipnitskia is too young and did not compete at Senior Nationals due to an injury. It is Leonova who was replaced by Gosvianni. If Lipnitskia were age eligible I'd bet my bottom dollar she'd be going to Worlds.

State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

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