I'll wait for further word from Camp Wagner before I assume the worst, but at best she will likely lose 2-3 weeks of training time. Perhaps with the holidays around the corner, some of the time she would have taken off anyway, but I will not be expecting her at her best in Omaha, that's for sure. (Even if she was 100% I would say this, solely because she's defending champion)
And the final data set: Sectionals
Obviously scores here are not as comparable to the international scores, but it does give a good idea where some of the skaters may stand.
Overall:
Vanessa Lam 177.73
Samantha Cesario 163.53
Courtney Hicks 161.72
Ashley Cain 161.49
Yasmin Siraj 151.35
Becky Bereswill 149.44
Kiri Baga 141.42
Haley Dunne 139.69
Joelle Forte 136.47
Morgan Bell 133.06
Sophia Adams 131.49
Amanda Hofmann 122.29
SP
Vanessa Lam 59.43 (35.28; 24.15)
Haley Dunne 58.20 (33.50; 24.70)
Samantha Cesario 57.80 (33.35; 24.45)
Courtney Hicks 57.80 (35.60; 23.20)
Ashley Cain 55.83 (30.43;25.40)
Becky Bereswill 51.69 (27.89; 23.80)
Kiri Baga 51.06 (27.41; 23.65)
Morgan Bell 49.04 (25.89; 23.15)
Yasmin Siraj 48.88 (26.03; 22.85)
Joelle Forte 48.18 (28.13; 20.05)
Sophia Adams 46.33 (25.28; 21.05)
Amanda Hofmann 44.36 (25.31; 20.05)
SP TES
Courtney Hicks 35.60
Vanessa Lam - 35.28
Haley Dunne 33.50
Samantha Cesario 33.35
Ashley Cain 30.43
Joelle Forte 28.13
Becky Bereswill 27.89
Kiri Baga 27.41
Yasmin Siraj 26.03
Morgan Bell 25.89
Amanda Hofman 25.31
Sophia Adamas 25.28
SP PCS
Ashley Cain 25.40
Haley Dunne 24.70
Samantha Cesario 24.45
Vanessa Lam 24.15
Becky Bereswill 23.80
Kiri Baga 23.65
Courtney Hicks 23.20
Morgan Bell 23.15
Yasmin Siraj 22.85
Sophia Adams 21.05
Joelle Forte 20.05
Amanda Hoffman 20.05
FS
Vanessa Lam 118.30 (65.98; 53.32)
Samantha Cesario 105.73 (56.62; 49.11)
Ashley Cain 105.66 (55.46; 51.20)
Courtney Hicks 103.92 (56.90; 48.02)
Yasmin Siraj 102.47 (55.44; 47.03)
Becky Bereswill 97.75 (52.05; 45.70)
Kiri Baga 90.36 (46.66; 43.70)
Joelle Forte 88.29 (48.98; 40.31)
Sophia Adams 85.15 (39.05; 47.11)
Morgan Bell 84.02 (42.71; 41.31)
Haley Dunne 81.49 (37.78; 45.71)
Amanda Hofmann 77.93 (36.61; 41.32)
FS TES
Vanessa Lam 65.98
Courtney Hicks 56.90
Samantha Cesario 56.62
Yasmin Siraj 55.44
Ashley Cain 55.46
Becky Bereswill 52.05
Joelle Forte 48.98
Kiri Baga 46.66
Morgan Bell 42.71
Sophia Adams 39.05
Haley Dunne 37.78
Amanda Hofmann 36.61
FS PCS
Vanessa Lam 53.32
Ashley Cain 51.20
Samantha Cesario 49.11
Courtney Hicks 48.02
Sophia Adams 47.11
Yasmin Siraj 47.03
Haley Dunne 45.71
Becky Bereswill 45.70
Kiri Baga 43.70
Amanda Hofmann 41.32
Morgan Bell 41.31
Joelle Forte 40.31
Hi there, I just posted a full breakdown of the sectional scores...took me a while to do so.Originally Posted by used2sk8
I think these skaters are still shooting for 4th at best. This is definitely not a 2008 situation building in the background. I have not seen Miller (I remember Wang from last year, I believe), but both of their high scores seem in the league of Zawadzki/Gao which is one rung down from the elite (world team contender level). And even then that's considering their highest score. Their median scores would have them around the 6th-8th place level.The data is quite interesting, as it reveals two possible spoilers at Nationals: Hannah Miller and Angela Wang. Hannah Miller currently not have the technical content that Angela does, but she has been relatively consistent relative to Wang. It's worth noting that Miller has not been off-the-podium for ANY segment of the three JGP events she's entered in, while Wang has had to play catch up at two of her events due to poor SP scores. Hannah has also been working on various 3-3s, including 3L-3L, so it will be interesting to see if she does them at Nationals. Angela and Hannah are fairly close in PCS.
Leah Keiser could also be a spoiler, but she's so hot and cold. She show a flash of brilliance at JGP Turkey producing wht is now the fourth highest score (it was second until JGPF) in the FS and still has the highest TES in the JGP among the U.S. ladies with her program in Turkey. However, when you consider the fact that she also has two of the lowest scores in the FS (only Ashley Cain has done worse); you have to wonder which skater will show up at Nationals.
So based on all this crazy number crunching, here's my thoughts on the field at nationals.
Contenders for Podium/World Team/ 4CC: Wagner, Nagasu, Gold, Gao and Zawadzki
** These five, of course, also happen to be our GP medalists as well.
** Wagner obviously is the front runner with the top three scores overall in the GP series. However, as RD said, we saw a bit of vulnerability in the GPF FS and Gold and Nagasu are not far behind and could give Wagner a run for her money if she has a bad night.
** Gold and Nagasu are likely the best contenders to ruin Wagner's ability to defend her title. Nagasu appears to be on an upward trajectory, having done OK at Finlandia, respectable at COC and solid at NHK. She seem to have benefited from not having that 4-hour commute to Frank Carroll this season. However her URs continue to be an issue and could factor in her changes. Gold, of course, has the technical goods including a 3F-3T; 3Z-3T and a 3F-1L-3S. However, she has only been able to hit all three at one competition, which was Skate Detroit, a summer competition. She also still needs to work on her packaging as well.
** I can see Gao sneaking on the podium (namely Pewter or bronze) if she skates like she did at SA and others makes mistakes. But she cannot mess up in the SP or she will be out of contention or at risk of finishing 5th for a fourth straight year. I can see Zawadzki being in medal position in the SP, but she'll have to continue work on the FS if she wants to improve on her bronze place finish last year.
Spoilers for the final group: Wang, Miller, and Cesario
** Miller, surprisingly, has been the most consistent out of this group, with three silver medals on the JGP circuit and top three finishes in EVERY segment in every competition she's competed in. The judges clearly have warmed up to her over the season, which you can see with her PCS scores jumping by several points between JGP Croatia and JGPF. She has said she is working on several 3-3s, including a 3L-3L.
**Wang is like Ashley Wagner's past as she has blown it in the SP (JGP USA + JGPF) but come back strong in the long. However if she can skate like she did in Croatia, I think she can sneak into the final group.
** Cesario did well in Austria, scoring a bronze medal and has the 4th highest FS and the third highest SP in the JGP circuit. She had a poor performance in Germany, but she WD due to injury, and I think her SP might be an outlier. She won her sectionals with a decent score in both segments.
** I do agree with R.D. that they will unlikely end up on the podium (1-4). I probably should clarify that when I said spoiler, I mean it as I did here, for the final group and maybe as and outside chance for pewter at best. But I think if they continue on their current path, they will make an easy case for a Junior Worlds assignment.
Big huge question marks: Lam, Keiser, Hicks, Cain, Baga, Siraj, Bereswill, Dunne, Zhang and Czisny
Basically, these folks are question marks as far as positions 7-12, i.e. the second group.
** Lam mystifies me. She skated great during the summer months, then turned in a poor JGP and then came back to win sectionals with the highest score out of all those who competed at sectionals. I have no idea of how she could do at Nationals.
** Keiser, as I mentioned in my JGP remarks, had a moment of brilliance in JGP Turkey, only to do poorly in the FS in JGP Germany and overall in JGPF. She has yet to get a 3Z-3T combo ratified, but she keeps trying it.
** Hicks has pretty much been in the middle of the pack as far as JGP scores. Her peak appeared to be JGP USA, where she finished second. She did poorly in her second event, where she was off the podium. However, her performance at sectionals was respectable. But it's clear that if she doesn't hit her jumps, there's not much to work with beyond that.
** Cain won her sectionals, but her jumps are iffy. She did poorly in JGP France, though it's clear that judges appreciate her components. The judges domestically do also; she had the second highest sectionals PCS in the SP and the second highest in the FS.
** Baga is someone that doesn't really have the jumps, but her packaging keeps her in the running. She managed a respectable top 10 finish last season because of this. However, now that she's doing pairs also, I'm not sure if she will move up that far up.
** Siraj is someone who has a ton of potential but we haven't seen it quite click totally. She had a great top 10 finish in 2011 only to finish in 15th a year later. She has been MIA until sectionals, where she finished second behind Cesario. She's had mixed international results -- she medaled in both her GP events in 2010, but finished second to last at the JGPF. In 2011, she finished 5th in her only JGP.
** Bereswill returns to Nationals after two years away. She was 13th at her last Nationals in 2010. Her score at sectionals was 22 points higher than her 2010 nationals score and would have put her in the running for the top 10 last year.
** Dunne had a surprise first place in the SP at sectionals with a respectable program that included a lovely triple lutz, which seems to be MIA in many SPs these days. However that followed with a very poor FS where she finished 5th in that segment. However, she does have all five triples (minus the Axel). If she gets it together in both programs, I could see her improving on her 16th place showing from last year and perhaps breaking the top 12.
** Zhang. Well given that I totally forgot to include her in my outlook, that should say something about my thoughts on her. She's done poorly in all her events this season, not breaking the 50+ mark in theSP or the 100+ mark in the FS. That said, no one expected Zhang to come back the way she did last season so we may be seeing another comeback from her. But she will have to do a lot more this year if she wants to maintain or improve on her 4th place finish from last season.
** Czisny. Well, you know what they say: "Out of sight, out of mind." Given that Nationals is her first competition, I have NO clue how she will do. In fact, as RD pointed out, I have no idea if she will even show given her injuries. If we go by past years, this is an "on" year for Czisny but I'm not sure if we can predict by past patterns here. She could finish anywhere, really. But given she finished 10th after two poor skates, I think she can do top 10 if she shows up.
Lucky to be at Nationals: Forte, Bell, Adams and Hofmann.
These are the folks that finished 4th in their respective sectionals.
** Forte finished top 10 int 2011 then fell down to 14th in 2012. She did not skate in any international events this season. She actually finished fourth in sectionals with a score similar to her nationals score, I'm not sure how realistic it is for her to move into the top 10.
** Bell and Adams return to Nationals after finishing 18th and 17th respectively. I don't expect huge improvement given the tough competition, but I hope they will do their best.
** Hofmann benefited from being at a less tough sectional. She actually finished sixth in her free skate, but had enough of a buffer in the SP to stay in the top 4.
So if I had to guess the result of nationals, it would be:
1.) Wagner
2.) Gold
3.) Nagasu
4.) Gao
5.) Zawadzki
6.) Miller
7.) Wang
8.) Lam
9.) Cesario
10.) Czsiny
11.)Zhang
12.) Keiser
13.) Hicks
14.) Cain
15.) Baga
16.) Dunne
17.) Siraj
18.) Bereswil
19.) Forte
20.) Bell
21.) Adams
22.) Hofmann
Last edited by Mrs. P; 12-09-2012 at 08:15 PM.
You have missed/ forgotten about Caroline Zhang.
Indeed I did. Thanks for pointing it out; I've added her to my preview.
I still think Lam might have a hard time even making the JW team or the final flight for the FS at Nationals despite her huge sectionals score. I say this for a number of reasons, 1.) she has no 3-3, 2.) she flutzes, and 3.) her jumps are tiny and garner minimal GOE even when landed. Her 2a is pretty nice and can pick up some GOE points but that's about it, she's also very flexible with great spin positions, but her spins are also pretty slow. She does not do the 3s and her FS is fairly front-loaded, with her two biggest combinations coming at the very beginning, and although she goes for two 3lz and two 3f, between her flutz (which is quite obvious though it does not always get called domestically) and the jumps not getting much GOE anyways, it doesn't give her that much of an edge. Further, even domestically, her PCS haven't been huge, and internationally, they are quite mediocre. Hannah's success on the JGP is hurting Vanessa's chances to go to JW because although Hannah also has small jumps, she's more consistent (at least internationally), gets higher PCS (again internationally), and doesn't flutz. Lam skated a clean FS at her JGP in Austria last season and scored around 106, so clearly at junior internationals 177 is not going to happen her, barring huge improvement.
I'll be surprised if Kiri makes the top 10 this year, but she is rewarded for presentation when she skates well. At this point, I don't really think Lam, Cain, Baga, or Siraj are spoilers for the podium or even the final warmup most likely. I could be wrong, but with 5 or 6 (if Alissa competes) main contenders, on top of Wang, Miller, and Cesario, and Zhang just because after last season you never know what could happen, that's 9 or 10 skaters right there. Plus an "on" Keiser is capable of scoring well due to her content, which Lam, Cain, Baga, and Siraj don't have as of yet.
I think JW will likely be Miller, Wang, and Cesario, unless Cesario happens to do really well and get 4CCs or something, or Gold gets JW as a consolation prize. Otherwise Keiser and Hicks are the most likely choices, unless Barbie Long wins junior ladies convincingly, so the chances for Cain and Lam likely aren't that great, though you never know.
I think you may have left out Czisny as well (I believe she has a bye), but she is a massive question mark. We aren't even sure if she will show up or not but if she does, personally, I don't expect her to be in the mix. However, she does have a history of peaking "early" so perhaps with Nationals being her first competition, she could perhaps surprise IF she is in shape.
Yes, you're right. You know what they say. Out of sight, out of mind. Will edit the document again.
I think Ashley should be sent to London, but I'm not sure about the second woman. Czisny is not someone anybody can rely on to deliver. But then the same can be said for the rest.
Until this weekend, I thought Christina Gao might be the best choice for the second spot. But her GPF performance was definitely disappointing--major mistakes in both programs, especially the short. Now, I don't know who is the best choice. It will just come down to whoever skates best at Nationals. I do think the main contenders are Christina, Gracie, and Mirai. I guess Agnes has an outside shot, but I'd rather not see her on the team. I like Agnes, but she's not scoring well internationally, even when she skates fairly clean.
My biggest concern right now is Ashley's injury. I hope, hope, hope it is not serious. With her on the team, we have a chance at 3 spots; without her, it will be hard. I'm just hoping she can skate at Nationals and do well. If not . . . I think the USFSA should consider giving her a bye to Worlds. In general, I don't favor injury byes, but in this case, I think it should at least be considered. With Olympic slots on the line, we simply must put our best team forward at Worlds this year. Even if it means taking a risk on an injured Ashley. I think Ashley has done enough this season to prove she is definitely our top lady. If she can't skate at Nationals, I would put her on the team UNLESS the top two finishers both had stellar performances.
I would probably put her on the team EVEN IF the top 2 at nationals had stellar performances, but insist on an evaluation a week and a half or 2 weeks before worlds to make sure she is recovered from the injury and in good form. I don't know that I'd say I favor byes, but I definitely think there are instances when they should be used, and if Ashley can't skate at Nationals this is one of them.
There were a couple errors in it that she wanted back.
I agree with this. If she can't skate at nationals, I would put the US champion on the World team and hold off naming the second lady until after a test evaluation has been done of Ashley by USFS. Remember there's no legally-binding "automatic" placement of the silver medalist on the World team; the USFS has the right to put whomever they choose on it.
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