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Thread: State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

  1. #706
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    Quote Originally Posted by eyria View Post
    Until this weekend, I thought Christina Gao might be the best choice for the second spot. But her GPF performance was definitely disappointing--major mistakes in both programs, especially the short. Now, I don't know who is the best choice. It will just come down to whoever skates best at Nationals. I do think the main contenders are Christina, Gracie, and Mirai. I guess Agnes has an outside shot, but I'd rather not see her on the team. I like Agnes, but she's not scoring well internationally, even when she skates fairly clean.
    Gao's peak may have been at SA (and she should be proud of that effort). Even if she's back in form for nationals I would not be comfortable sending her to worlds. Yes, we'll have to see which of the three (if any) delivers, and take it from there.

    ...With Olympic slots on the line, we simply must put our best team forward at Worlds this year. Even if it means taking a risk on an injured Ashley. I think Ashley has done enough this season to prove she is definitely our top lady. If she can't skate at Nationals, I would put her on the team UNLESS the top two finishers both had stellar performances.
    In theory I agree, but here is the issue: it is assuming that Wagner will not only be recovered, but back to her old, fully-trained self by March. When Kwan was given the injury bye in 2006, I think she was barely hanging on. It became clear that she wasn't fit to compete at the Olympics after all and they may as well have simply selected Hughes from the start. If they are going to consider giving Wagner a bye, they'd better make sure she's in tip-top shape to compete at her very best...because as GPF showed, if she's off she's really not much better than Nagasu/Gold anyway.

  2. #707
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    Well, at least this means maybe we'll see the wealth spread a bit for 4CCs if Ashley needs a break to heal, meaning that maybe the 3 ladies sent to 4CCs will be different from the ones going to Worlds. I agree about a monitoring skate before Worlds though. The USFS should have done this with Alissa last season, and pulled her out before Worlds after seeing she wasn't in form. It was one thing to hold her up at Nats, but she admitted to an injury at GPF and by Challenge Cup it was obvious something was wrong. I think Ashley should try and skate at Nationals, and if she can't, I don't have an issue with her getting a bye to Worlds, as long as she's monitored beforehand and deemed ready to compete. I also would be okay with the top 3 ladies having a skate off for the 2nd spot at 4CCs, because then the issue of Nationals holding up or whatnot would be somewhat elminated and we could see how the scores of the ladies in contention stack up when they are all at the same international competition.

    IN any event, I think it's pretty clear USFS wants Gracie at the Olympics next season and thus Worlds this season. Sending her to WTT and helping promote her to get 2 senior GP events tells the story of that, if they wanted her to wait her turn, they could have easily tried to talk her into staying on the JGP another season and set her on the 2018 track instead, like they seemed to have done for Farris in the men. So as long as Gracie doesn't blow it, she should be on the World Team with Ashley. And Gracie doesn't need to be perfect to top a typical performance from Gao, Nagasu, or Zawadzki. I know people are encouraged by Mirai's scores with URs, but really, I think it's the judges way of dumping her in a non-controversial fashion. The URs are borderline, if they wanted to Mirai to be a contender, they'd look the other way or boost up her GOE and PCS the way they've done for Mao, but the fact that they haven't means her stock has gone down internationally, I think. She had a great opportunity at 2010 Worlds but then blew it and only showed that same side of herself once the following season, at 4CC, where despite being great she was still only 3rd. Mirai still has lots of talent but if she wants to be a contender on the World stage I think she needs to start skating with all guns blazing and show jumps that are so obviously clean that UR calls from the judges would look bogus if issued. That hasn't happened yet and until it does, Gracie probably has better odds.

  3. #708
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    My dream team for 2014: Caroline Zhang, Mirai Nagasu, Ashley Wagner.

    My dream team for 2018: Caroline Zhang, Starr Andrews, Christina Gao.

  4. #709
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    Pictures on Ashley's Twitter taken soon after the GPF showed her on crutches with a boot/cast-thing on her leg. Hoping with everything in me that her hip isn't as injured as it looked...as of now, she's still the clear frontrunner heading into Nats and the US cannot afford to lose her in the last season before the Olympics.

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    ...and to top it off, I stumbled upon the pictures of her splat face-down on the ice on another forum all I have to say is yikes

    ETA: I think we'll know soon enough how serious it is. She's scheduled to skate in a Disson show this weekend, I think...we'll have to see if she goes forth with it or whether she pulls out

  6. #711
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    ...and to top it off, I stumbled upon the pictures of her splat face-down on the ice on another forum all I have to say is yikes

    ETA: I think we'll know soon enough how serious it is. She's scheduled to skate in a Disson show this weekend, I think...we'll have to see if she goes forth with it or whether she pulls out
    One of the GS articles has said she indeed has a hip pointer.

  7. #712
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    Isn't that the quote from the same USFS team doctor at GPF? Several articles mention it (although Wagner herself didn't tweet about it)

    ETA: Based on my reading those things can take up to 4 weeks to heal - fairly slow recovery process. Hmm, if it's bad enough...and there isn't that much time until nationals!
    Last edited by R.D.; 12-12-2012 at 02:30 AM.

  8. #713
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    On average, it takes 2 to 4 weeks to fully recover from a hip pointer. That is a lot of training time to be lost with Nationals around the corner. I won't be surprised if she ask for an injury bye. Even so I think she will be named to the team.

    Has anyone seen Alissa on the ice or know anything about her programs.

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    Team Czisny seems to be keeping its cards close to its chest at the moment. Seems to be unknown what shape she's in...only thing to go on is a tweet from Phil Hersh a couple of months ago saying that she "assures" him she'll be ready for nationals

  10. #715
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    Team Czisny seems to be keeping its cards close to its chest at the moment. Seems to be unknown what shape she's in...only thing to go on is a tweet from Phil Hersh a couple of months ago saying that she "assures" him she'll be ready for nationals
    That assurance means nothing unless she can hit all her jumps. Somehow I'm doubtful, given her competitive history.

  11. #716
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    I won't disagree with you there.

    Playing DA, I should note that Czisny has, in the past, typically given her best performances early in her season...and fizzles out by nationals (and worlds, if applicable). So, it really depends on the shape she is in...but it's NEVER easy to begin the season at your own Nationals.
    Last edited by R.D.; 12-12-2012 at 11:10 AM.

  12. #717
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    I won't disagree with you there.

    Playing DA, I should note that Czisny has, in the past, typically given her best performances early in her season...and fizzles out by nationals (and worlds, if applicable). So, it really depends on the shape she is in...but it's NEVER easy to begin the season at your own Nationals.
    Alissa has the ability to pull out a great program out of nowhere. However, I agree that having her first competition at Nationals probably isn't going to help her.

  13. #718
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    Regarding Kwan in 2006 she was given a bye since the publicity she would bring. NBC and other networks could hype her long awaited quest for the gold (even though healthy she didnt have a hope in hell that year, but only smart people know that, easy to milk the naive no nothings who make up most of the viewers), her ending her magnificient career, her legacy, her fightback from injury to be at the Games and all else. Besides had she been healthy enough to compete she probably would have finished 4th or 5th based on the surprisingly poor quality of the event, higher than Hughes still finished to manage. The U.S medal hopes were all on Cohen, with Meissner or Kwan having really really outside chances at most, so who the U.S sent between Hughes and Kwan was almost irrelevant, except that even at that stage a healthy Kwan was a better skater, and bought far more publicity and interest to the event than baby Hughes would.

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    don't want to get too far off topic but I kept hearing that there was outside pressure on USFS to do the same with Cohen in 2010. Only difference was that it was clear as day to everyone (through her performances at Nationals) that she was not fit enough to be competitive for a medal at the Olys...and certainly not more so than Nagasu or even Flatt. Kwan in 2006 they were able to test her behind closed doors since she asked for the injury bye.

    I think 2010 must have been the first time in a long time (at least since I've ever watched the Winter Games) that ladies' skating actually flew under the radar (in the US) and wasn't hyped as one of the "big events to watch", if not THE event to watch.

    If the US ladies still aren't competitive for a medal in 2014, I predict the popularity of the other winter sports will match (and eventually surpass) that of skating during the Olympics. It was already happening anyway.

    Alissa has the ability to pull out a great program out of nowhere.
    ...and she also has the ability to tank for no apparent reason at all.
    Last edited by R.D.; 12-12-2012 at 08:58 PM.

  15. #720
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    Wagner just tweeted a picture of "the aftermath" of her fall - the bruise on her hip area (viewer discretion warning):

    http://instagram.com/p/TJzlUaCr8b/

    doesn't look like something that will go away in just a couple days unfortunately

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