Was very impressed with how Ashley was able to get up and finish her program. An excellent example of "adrenaline" fueling an athlete to complete what they trained to do.
I have mixed feelings on the sharing of the bruises with photos. I don't need "proof" that she took a hard hit and is obviously going to be bruised.
In retrospect I think a healthy Kwan had a great shot, as those Olympics were not a well skated event. Her programs at the 2005 Nationals would have won gold in Torino.Originally Posted by pangtongfan
but it is a hindsight now. How one would have skated at an event is hard to say. Ice quality, atmosphere, how one reacts to the olympic pressure who knows. I do agree though with Arakawa's skate Kwan had a great chance but it wasn't to be
No they wouldnt have. Her SP from Nationals would have only scored in the 60 range as her SP at Worlds with a few minor upgrades scored 61 and change, and her LP from those Nationals would have scored in about the 115-116 range as it was only marginally better than her Worlds LP to the same program which scored 113. She wouldnt have even medaled at the 2006 Olympics with her performances from the 2005 Nationals, maybe eked out 2nd in the LP but still been a distant 4th overall considering the SP, and been a good 15 points from the gold. You make it sound like she delivered these awesome and remotedly COP friendly performances and programs at the 05 Nationals, when her LP especialy was quite mediocre, especialy in the context of COP thinking. Dont be fooled by the 6.0s, they were her most farcial 6.0s ever at Nationals and Sports Illustrated even dedicated a whole article to mocking them and saying thank goodness for the end of the 6.0. Maybe you made a mistake and meant to say the 2003 or 2004 Nationals in which case you "might" be right or atleast have a chance of being right, but I doubt Michelle was capable of skating at that level by 2006 anymore, especialy with COP and the limited time to prepare for it coming back from injury. The only way she would have won gold in Turin with her jump content from the 2005 Nationals is with MUCH more COP friendly programs than she had there, eg- replacing level 1s and 2s with 3s and 4s, and adding way more transitions, and with a much much better program than Bolero was. Her SP music of her 05-06 SP was the same as Slutskaya's which I think it is a mistake to begin with, and the version I saw her perform of it paled in comparision to Irina's in every sense, and Sasha and Shizuka managed to roughly tie Irina in the Turin SP, so even a clean Michelle would probably have been way behind all 3, Suguri territory, after the SP.
Last edited by pangtongfan; 12-13-2012 at 01:48 AM.
Just to come to Kwan's defense, the officials at the test skate did state that her spins were level 3s and 4s. Had she done a clean short and a 5-6 triple LP, she probably would have won. I just wish we could have seen her long program somewhere. I think seeing her skate to Bells of Moscow would have been very interesting.
Now, back on topic! I think Ashley will be fine. I've looked up a lot of information on hip pointers, and depending on the severity, she could be off the ice from 1-4 weeks. That's a huge range. So, if she is off the ice for 3 weeks...that would give her 3 to prepare. I think if anyone can do it, she can. Even if she isn't 100 percent, I could still see her fighting through and beating everyone else fair and square. I wish there was more updated information on her condition. Is it possible she's already back on the ice and just not training full force?
I'm very interested in what the other ladies are going to put out. Gold did not skate very well so far this season. It will be interesting to see if she's able to conquer her nerves and really nail her programs. Mirai has has been building and has landed triple/triples in the short program. If she can work hard on her jump technique between now and Nationals to get those triples all the way around (especially the later triples in her LP), she could potentially be high on the podium. I really like her programs this season. Christina has shown some good skating, but I think she's still a little rough around the edges. She tends to drop her shoulders late in the program and slow down a bit. If everyone skates exceptionally, Christina's PCS will most likely be behind Gracie's, and Gracie's behind Mirai's (or should be IMO). Agnes has been hot and cold so far, and I expect the same out of her at Nationals. If she skates very well she could be in the mix, but even when she skates well she usually doesn't score as high as the other three.
I agree: just remember her TEB performance and she was "not in a great condition"!!
I think Wagner has clearly declared herself by her performances as the front runner. The injury is unfortunate but she should have enough - sadly even if the judges are generous at nats on her pcs to ensure she wins (or however they creatively interpret her performances). The real battle is for no. 2 as no lady has stepped up to say I am the one or two.
i still think Mirai can do it but she has been a huge disappointment since Oly 10. And even though she has slowly been growing mmentum her programs are not what many of us thought - the next Kwan or Sasha. She could even win the US title or find her self out of the top 5. Gao is rough. Zhang may have ironically taken the pressure off of her by her poor skates this year. Czisny I think will have trouble coming back with lack of competition experience this year. Gold has been like the Russian baby ballerinas huge hype but not really quite living up to it the advantage she has is that she looks like she survived the puberty monster. The Americans have a strong chance of earning their three spots to Oly gold with Wagner at the helm. It sure has taken long enough though; US is usually dominant in this sport.
The problem with Mirai is that she is incredibly inconsistent. Sometimes she does OK, but often times she does not. It is difficult to expect that she can do well at the worlds even if she does well enough to earn a spot on the team at the nats.
I do not care for Ashley's artistry, but I do think it's commendable that she's been consistent this season, and she's done well for herself, far better than I expected her to do. I don't know if she's going to be good enough to win a medal at the worlds, but she's certainly going to place high enough to earn 3 spots for Sochi, provided that the #2 lady doesn't implode.
As long as Ashley's okay (which it seems like she is), she'll take a little time to heal and then be ready for nationals. I'm impressed with the way she handled that fall and got back up and continued. That's a fighter...I love fighters! I'm glad this happened. It really does remind me of Yu-Na back during the GP before Vancouver. She was performing so consistently, almost like clockwork, and people were expecting that kind of near perfection every time. That pressure builds and builds and eventually, it breaks. She had a rough skate at SA but it was okay...it's okay to make mistakes.
Same thing with Ashley. She's been so solid time and time again and while that's great, each performance adds another ton of pressure and expectation to do it again. I'm glad she was able to have that pressure release at the GPF and make those mistakes, but still finish strong and still get silver. That's probably a big load off of her shoulders. Ashley doesn't strike me as one who'll start going downhill after an off night; she'll dig her heels in and start climbing back up. She's mentally tough and that's the difference between her and nearly every other US champ of the last couple of years. I don't think a bad performance will shake her confidence; if anything she'll be even more hungry to prove that that performance was a fluke.
Ashley's spot is still secure in my mind. To fall twice and still score 115+ at an international competition lets me know that if she'd done that at nationals she'd have scored even higher. Ashley's moved into that space as a competitor where even her worst/near worst is better than what most can do and the USFSA would be cuckoo crazy bonkers to leave her off the team.
Her 66+ SP score here was excellent which means she can hang onto that 3-3 until 4CC...clean is the name of the game, especially in the SP. I would like to see her add the 2A-3T to the LP just to be sure, but her scores from SA and TEB prove that she really doesn't need it if she's hitting everything else. Gracie and Mirai haven't landed more than 4 triples a piece to Ashley's rather consistent 6 triples so depending on the score spread after the SP, she can decide whether she needs that 7th triple.
I don't think it's going to be an easy win for Ashley by any means BUT if she can do what she's been doing all season then I can't see her not winning that second title.
Last edited by kwanatic; 12-13-2012 at 02:06 PM.
She won't even go downhill during an off night. She will fight her way to the finish, even if it means landing a gorgeous 3F with a pesky hip pointer. Her attitude is what every parent tries to instill in their sons and daughters when it comes to succeeding in sports and in life.
Of the following ladies, who has the best chance to get a gold medal in Sochi?
Caroline Zhang
Mirai Nagasu
Gracie Gold
Christina Gao
Agnes Zawadzki
Angela Wang
None of the above?
Pigs will fly. Wagner is the only American who has a hope to win gold in Sochi, and that is about 10% at best (not sure what odds to give her to medal, will have a better idea after Worlds this year).
I can't imagine any of the above being in contention for the GOLD medal in Sochi. Perhaps A medal in the case of Gold or even Nagasu, but if things hold true, looks like the 2014 field may be almost as deep as the 2010 one and in that case, it's a tough call for any of the Americans, unfortunately.
if you think about it, though, at least half of them won't even get that shot. Only 2 spots available (perhaps 3 if you knock on wood, cross fingers, pray, etc.)
But...how do WE know that what we saw at GPF was her worst? I'm still not convinced that Wagner is such an untouchable, solid rock that she would absolutely "Kwan" US Nationals. I knew this all along, but GPF convinced me that Wagner is indeed perfectly beatable and not immune to mistakes/falls. As the charts compiled a couple of pages ago indicate, Wagner's GPF score is not far off Nagasu's NHK score or Gold's COR score. Throw in one of her typical SP mistakes and boom, that will put her right in line with Gold and Nagasu. Of course, the challenge is calculating the likelihood that she would make these mistakes given her track record...and the X-Factor, in this case her injury and potential loss of training time caused by it. Also, the likelihood that Gold or Nagasu would do well enough themselves is something to factor in.Ashley's spot is still secure in my mind. To fall twice and still score 115+ at an international competition lets me know that if she'd done that at nationals she'd have scored even higher. Ashley's moved into that space as a competitor where even her worst/near worst is better than what most can do and the USFSA would be cuckoo crazy bonkers to leave her off the team.
ETA: I guess it would be more of a "Y-factor"- given that I use "X-Factor" to refer to unknowns, and the injury is a known...
Last edited by R.D.; 12-13-2012 at 08:31 PM.
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