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Thread: State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

  1. #766
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    That said, I think this conversation is of academic interest only. I don't think Czisny will compete at Nationals.
    I have my doubts as well...

    At least she seems well enough to skate, however. I think she did that Skating/Gymnastics show this past weekend.

    If Czisny is looking to Sochi though, it might serve her interests to at least try to compete next month if she can.

  2. #767
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    Whoops, my bad. Thanks for clearing that up. I was under the assumption that, while tradition calls for the national champion to be sent, it's ultimately the USFSA's decision. In that case, then, I'm thinking they will ascertain that either Wagner or Gold take the top spot. Those two are going to Worlds no matter what.
    The rules for the Olympics are worded differently, to avoid guaranteeing that the national champion be named to the team. Maybe that's what you're thinking of.

    I can't imagine a situation in which the national champion would not be sent to the Olympics, assuming s/he was eligible by age, citizenship, minimum technical scores, etc. The reason the rules don't guarantee the Olympic spot to the champion are to avoid turning Nationals into an Olympic trials, which would give the USOC financial rights that US Figure Skating otherwise retains for its own.

    That doesn't apply to world team selection, so they went ahead and wrote the guarantee into the rules a number of years ago.

    Second and third place are still subject to second guessing, or whatever you want to call it, based on the other competitions mentioned in the selection rules. Which do not include the forthcoming 4Cs because they name the team during/right after Nationals.

    As a matter of principle, any specific skater aside, would there be more value in keeping the world team undecided for several weeks and requiring several skaters to travel and compete and achieve specific results at another competition after Nationals as a condition of receiving the assignment?

  3. #768
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    I have my doubts as well...

    At least she seems well enough to skate, however. I think she did that Skating/Gymnastics show this past weekend.
    No jumps, though. Just some basic stroking around and a couple of great spins.

    As a matter of principle, any specific skater aside, would there be more value in keeping the world team undecided for several weeks and requiring several skaters to travel and compete and achieve specific results at another competition after Nationals as a condition of receiving the assignment?
    I would not like that at all. I seem to be in an ever-shrinking minority on this issue, but I just don't like the model of the USFSA as the grand puppeteer pulling the strings on the insignificant athletes. Better to have well-defined procedures in place where the skaters know going in exactly what they must do -- what THEY must do, not what the USFSA committee might do -- to earn a berth on the World team.

    Edited to add: Correction. The latest post on the "Czisny sightings" thread says that she did a 2A and a 3T. The video that was posted started after the jumps.
    Last edited by Mathman; 12-17-2012 at 03:34 PM.

  4. #769
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    I seem to be in an ever-shrinking minority on this issue, but I just don't like the model of the USFSA as the grand puppeteer pulling the strings on the insignificant athletes. Better to have well-defined procedures in place where the skaters know going in exactly what they must do -- what THEY must do, not what the USFSA committee might do -- to earn a berth on the World team.
    Unless you go strictly by results at Nationals, there isn't any way to do this. The competitions they consider besides Nationals are only attended by a handful of top athletes. If Angela wins the silver medal, the USFSA can't consider her past Worlds, 4CC, etc results so it would fully comply with their policy to leave her off the team in favor of Agnes. (Not that I think they would do this, but they could.) I think after Jeremy was left off the team a few years back, what you're going to see is the very top tier skaters put on the World team if they are at or near the top (Jeremy and Ashley) and then the remainder of the team will be filled by the best finishers at Nationals. I think this is a fair policy because you can get on the team by (a) having a fantastic season by winning multiple international events or (b) having a fantastic result at Nationals.

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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    Unless you go strictly by results at Nationals, there isn't any way to do this. The competitions they consider besides Nationals are only attended by a handful of top athletes. If Angela wins the silver medal, the USFSA can't consider her past Worlds, 4CC, etc results so it would fully comply with their policy to leave her off the team in favor of Agnes. (Not that I think they would do this, but they could.) I think after Jeremy was left off the team a few years back, what you're going to see is the very top tier skaters put on the World team if they are at or near the top (Jeremy and Ashley) and then the remainder of the team will be filled by the best finishers at Nationals. I think this is a fair policy because you can get on the team by (a) having a fantastic season by winning multiple international events or (b) having a fantastic result at Nationals.
    Hmmm. You bring up Jeremy like he'll be the catalyst. Except he hadn't been having a fantastic season. And he certainly hadn't won multiple international events. So would it have been a "fair policy" to put him on the team? Seems fuzzy.

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    I agree no way Abbott gets a pass onto the team this year if he doesnt finish top 2 at Nationals. I dont think Evan will ever get one this year if he simply shows up at Nationals and skates mediocre, so why would Abbott. The only one I think will get put on the team without a top finish at Nationals (which in her case would probably mean withdrawing) is Wagner.

  7. #772
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    I have to agree w/ pangtongfan on this. I don't think any skater this season is going to get a spot without having to work for it at nats, except possibly Ashley.

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    Looking back at his season I would agree Jeremy doesn't get a pass. But Ashley certainly does. I still think Jeremy is unquestionably one of our two top men though, and I hope he does make the world team.

  9. #774
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    Davis & White, too, but other than them, and Ashley, I think that's it in locks for a slot to Worlds. US Nationals is going to be stressful!

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    I suppose there's something we can all agree on, though, based on how the season has unfolded: Wagner remains the favorite, and thus this title (like last year's ) is Wagner's to lose IF she competes AND skates like she has skated most of the time.

    I think there are a few factors working against her this time that didn't last year, so I'm not expecting a slam dunk or easy victory here. If she DOES end up winning, I think it will be a barely squeaked-out victory.

    ETA: I still think an upset is possible, maybe even probable. Gold probably much more likely than any of the others (including Nagasu) to pull it off.
    Last edited by R.D.; 12-18-2012 at 09:44 AM.

  11. #776
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    I suppose there's something we can all agree on, though, based on how the season has unfolded: Wagner remains the favorite, and thus this title (like last year's ) is Wagner's to lose IF she competes AND skates like she has skated most of the time.

    I think there are a few factors working against her this time that didn't last year, so I'm not expecting a slam dunk or easy victory here. If she DOES end up winning, I think it will be a barely squeaked-out victory.

    ETA: I still think an upset is possible, maybe even probable. Gold probably much more likely than any of the others (including Nagasu) to pull it off.
    I'm afraid for Gold's PCS--looking at it alone, she was only 7th or 8th at CoR, and it took a near-perfect technical showing to pull her up. Even at Nats with the odds leaning toward her, she may get hammered for her lack of artistry/interpretation.

  12. #777
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reginald View Post
    Of the following ladies, who has the best chance to get a gold medal in Sochi?
    Caroline Zhang
    Mirai Nagasu
    Gracie Gold
    Christina Gao
    Agnes Zawadzki
    Angela Wang
    Of those listed, I would say Gold if she worked a lot on her program components or Nagasu if she managed to get back to her peak. Obviously there is an American who has a much better chance than any of these, but I am respecting the question's wording.
    Last edited by Riemann; 12-18-2012 at 11:06 PM.

  13. #778
    Rejoicing in the land of Kwan kwanatic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    I'm afraid for Gold's PCS--looking at it alone, she was only 7th or 8th at CoR, and it took a near-perfect technical showing to pull her up. Even at Nats with the odds leaning toward her, she may get hammered for her lack of artistry/interpretation.
    Yeah that's the thing about Gracie. Without the jumps, the rest of her skating is pretty. She has to fight to get good PCS so if she starts messing up, her TES drop and her PCS take will a nosedive too. She's had one strong SP and two mediocre LPs so far this season, so she still has a lot to improve upon. If she can pull it together though, she definitely deserves that spot. She's a looong shot for a medal at worlds but if she can deliver, I could see her in 5th or 6th place...

  14. #779
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanatic View Post
    Yeah that's the thing about Gracie. Without the jumps, the rest of her skating is pretty. She has to fight to get good PCS so if she starts messing up, her TES drop and her PCS take will a nosedive too. She's had one strong SP and two mediocre LPs so far this season, so she still has a lot to improve upon. If she can pull it together though, she definitely deserves that spot. She's a looong shot for a medal at worlds but if she can deliver, I could see her in 5th or 6th place...
    http://espn.go.com/espnw/headliners/...growing-skills

    This gives me hope for her. Very recent article, and she's well aware of what's expected of her (and the difference between juniors and seniors). I feel like her best years will come after the Olympics, but she's going far.

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    Thanks for posting that. Interesting take (nothing we didn't really know already, however)

    I can feel for her when she admitted to feeling the pressure. There seems to be so much hype surrounding her, a good amount of it probably having to do with her name, her looks (!?), etc.

    But the pressure is exactly what makes or breaks so many skaters. Talent and hard work will get you to the competition, but mental toughness is what wins you the competition. (putting aside judging biases, etc. let's keep this simple)

    It's why Kwan was so successful.
    It's why people like Meissner and Hughes became World and Olympic champions (respectively), while someone like Cohen had to settle for silver, or in some cases, bronze.
    It's also why Czisny has slipped up again and again. She could have been an Olympian - twice.
    Last edited by R.D.; 12-19-2012 at 06:45 PM.

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