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Thread: State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

  1. #811
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    Then, the question remains whether she should go to 4CC in the first place (it's in Asia)...don't be shocked if, like Czisny last year, Wagner is not named (although it's possible they may still give her the option)
    I think Ashley will go. She loves to compete and I think she will want to try to defend her title. The only thing that might stop her is if she isn't fully recovered from her injury.

  2. #812
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    I don't know if Ashley will be able to skate 100% cleanly, but I do feel like even if she has a mistake she won't give up. She's a fighter and that's a trait a champion has to have. I expect a small mistake here or there but not an implosion of any sort.

    She's the overwhelming favorite to win this year and it's the first year the defending champion has actually looked as though they'll be able to defend. The year after Mirai won she was battling a growth spurt and didn't even make the podium...the year after Alissa won she was out of the running by the end of the SP...the year after Rachael won she was trending downward...and the year after Alissa won again, she was a shadow of the former confidence she'd had the year before.

    Since Ashley won nationals she's won like four competitions and has barely shown any signs of slowing down (the exception being the GPF where she still finished in 2nd place). Like I said last year, Ashley is the only US champ in recent years who actually carries the title well and seems to be thriving under the pressure. She's backed up her win last year with a number of very good performances and solid results.

    If by chance she doesn't win, I agree, that will be the biggest shock of the season for me...

  3. #813
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    It would be an upset for sure, given she's the undisputed favorite...but I wouldn't put it at Hughes winning SLC or Meissner winning 2006 Worlds type of shocker (although it would depend on who it was that upset her...definitely not if it's Gold or Nagasu)

  4. #814
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    It would be an upset for sure, given she's the undisputed favorite...but I wouldn't put it at Hughes winning SLC or Meissner winning 2006 Worlds type of shocker (although it would depend on who it was that upset her...definitely not if it's Gold or Nagasu)
    Sigh. Sasha should have won both of those (based on talent, not on how she actually skated).

  5. #815
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    But talent and "potential" do not win you Championships. Mental toughness, consistency and luck do. (Usually some unique mix of the three)

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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    Sigh. Sasha should have won both of those (based on talent, not on how she actually skated).
    Would Sasha have won either of those if everyone (not just her) skated their best however? Probably not, 2002 definitely not in fact, both Kwan and Slutskaya would have crushed both her and Hughes that year. Her winning in 2002 would have also been a huge injustice (though I wouldnt begrudge it all still if she had the best performance that night, IMO the best performance on the day should always win at a Worlds or Olympics) anyway, as she had done nothing that quad, no trips to trips, no National titles, only one grand prix medal, her first World medal 2 years away, and only competed as a senior skater about half that quad, and admited she would have taken her gold and ran if she had done it. Thank goodness she did not win the 2002 Games.
    Last edited by pangtongfan; 01-10-2013 at 06:48 PM.

  7. #817
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Would Sasha have won either of those if everyone (not just her) skated their best however? Probably not, 2002 definitely definitely not, both Kwan and Slutskaya would have crushed both her and Hughes that year.
    Who would have beat her in 2006?

  8. #818
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    Who would have beat her in 2006?
    Lets see, Shizuka did a program with only 5 triples and easily crushed Sasha who also had 5 clean triples landed, even if Sasha did have one fall and one near fall on the 6th and 7th triples she attempted (which is in fact an advantage for Sasha in another sense as it means she attempted more content, even though she messed it up, and obviously all at their best she would not be the one attempting more content). Shizuka was capable of doing triple-triples, Sasha was not. If Shizuka did her program from her practice runthroughs (which all had 1 or 2 triple-triples) she would have easily beaten a clean Sasha. In fact based on the protocals if Shizuka had just done her 6th triple she doubled she probably would have beaten Sasha even without her 2 misses, even with Sasha doing only 7 triples, and that is even with a generous assumption of boosted PCS for Sasha (dont assume much gained in positive GOE above the 0 mark as even her clean jumps get virtually none). Had Irina Slutskaya done her performance from that years Cup of Russia, the previous years Worlds, the previous years NHK, that years Europeans, she also would have likely beaten a clean Sasha. In the short program when all 3 did the exactly same jumps they were virtually tied, and Sasha probably only won the short since she skated last in the event, so how would Sasha win in the LP if all did all they can when the other two are capable of more jumps than she is. Any slight PCS edge would be easily offset by the superior GOEs in the jumps of the other two, and the triple-triples would do the rest.

    The only World and Olympic events Sasha would have won with everyone skating their best in all programs was the 2004 Worlds and 2006 Worlds, and the latter only since there was none of the top skaters there except for her. 2002, 2003, 2005 Worlds she wasnt ever beating the eventual winner those years even had she skated cleanly. In general as talented and special a skater as Cohen is many respects, the idea she was unbeatable skating clean is a myth or urban legends of sorts. Proof of this already is that Kwan skated well enough at Nationals to beat even a clean Cohen every year from 2002-2005 and this despite that Kwan wasnt even the top skater in the World anymore during that period.

    Anyway I could still see many hoping she had won in 2006 and she would have been a worthy winner that year if she skated well, which was definitely there for the taking for her that night, as would Slutskaya if she skated well, and as was Shizuka despite that she didnt even skate all that great but the best that night. 2002 though no freaking way. Had the Olympics not been in the U.S she wouldnt have even been more of a contender than people like Suguri and Butyrskaya. 2002 she was a nobody at that point who was hyped up since the Olympics were in the U.S. Kwan, Slutskaya, and Hughes, were always the 3 who belonged on that podium, even if Kwan or Slutskaya as winner would have been more appropriate for what happened that quad, but it was Hughes's night. The marks of Hughes also indicate they probably werent even planning to put a clean Cohen above her, considering there was only room for 2 skaters max above Hughes's marks and we all know who those two were.
    Last edited by pangtongfan; 01-10-2013 at 07:08 PM.

  9. #819
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    Yeah...we've drifted off topic though.

    Back to THIS season - an equivalent shocker IMO would be if, say, Zawadzki or Gao won, Gold/Nagasu is second, and Wagner is third.

    I still think Czisny might be that dark horse/spoiler that could potentially "ruin" everything. Odds are she will not be up to snuff, but supposing she is...this IS an odd-numbered year after all and we remember her successes in odd-numbered years dating all the way back to 2005.
    Last edited by R.D.; 01-10-2013 at 07:38 PM.

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    It would be intriguing how Czisny is scored if she skates very well. Especialy not knowing how the others will skate, especialy the people the USFSA probably wants to make the team this year- Wagner, Gold, and Nagasu.

  11. #821
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    The only World and Olympic events Sasha would have won with everyone skating their best in all programs was the 2004 Worlds and 2006 Worlds, and the latter only since there was none of the top skaters there except for her. 2002, 2003, 2005 Worlds she wasnt ever beating the eventual winner those years even had she skated cleanly.
    I was referring to 2006 Worlds, as that is the event Meissner won that Sasha should have. We agree for once.

  12. #822
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    Yes I am sure Sasha would have won 2006 Worlds even with her Olympic LP and the two falls. They would have given her huge PCS and a score over 120 (remember scoring was MUCH higher at Worlds than the Olympics) and that would have been easily enough to win overall, even if she lost the LP to Meissner.

  13. #823
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    It would be intriguing how Czisny is scored if she skates very well. Especialy not knowing how the others will skate, especialy the people the USFSA probably wants to make the team this year- Wagner, Gold, and Nagasu.
    Traditionally Czisny has been given rather generous scores, especially when she skates decently. Yes, it would be interesting to see what happens...

    Don't be surprised to see her in the final FS group though.

  14. #824
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    Alissa won't be skating at the Detroit club event this week-end. She was expected to.

  15. #825
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    Traditionally Czisny has been given rather generous scores, especially when she skates decently. Yes, it would be interesting to see what happens...

    Don't be surprised to see her in the final FS group though.
    I think the only way Alissa will make it on that podium is if she earns it. No gifts.

    Alissa's last performance was an EPIC FAIL, on the world stage no less. She's had surgery, hasn't competed all season long...she's a huge question mark this year. I don't think the judges will turn their backs on her as quickly as they did Rachael last year but I don't think she'll score the way she's scored the last two years. Final group? Maybe. But given the state her skating was in the last time she skated halfway decently (nationals last year) I don't think she'd beat out Mirai, Gracie or even Gao right now unless the judges help her...

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