Everyone knows that it's figure skating and that anything can happen. It goes without saying that the favorite might lose. As for Ashley, she's the clearest favorite in years. Even if she wasn't the defending champion she'd probably be the favorite because of the way she has been skating this season compared to the other ladies. Does that mean the others don't stand a chance for gold? Course not.Originally Posted by Reginald
It just means it will be easier for Ashley to win and slightly harder for her to lose. Likewise, it will be harder for others to win. As long as she skates close to as well as she did on the GP, she'll win here.
With Alissa last year, if she'd had two strong skates like she did in 2011 she would have won. But Alissa had problems in the SP and even more problems in the LP...Ashley had two great programs and was the obvious winner that night but if Alissa had skated better than she did (ie. if it had been a close competition) the favor would have gone Alissa's way.
I guess the question for Czisny is first how she skates. Then how will she be judged based on how she skates and relative to how her competitors skate. Will the scores indicate:
1. She is still a judges pet who will be gifted over superior performances from others (hugely unlikely IMO).
2. She will be marked fairly and now blackballed like Flatt last year (quite possible IMO, but even in this case I think even with a good competition she would need major help from others to make the team this year).
3. She will be blackballed ala Flatt last year and slammed by the judges (quite possible also IMO).
Very true. Last years Nationals was always Czisny's to lose. Things can change alot in just a year though in this sport. Last year Wagner needed help from Czisny, and possibly even Zawadzki (after the SP) and Nagasu to win, however this his years Nationals is clearly Wagner's to lose, even more than Czisny's last year. Meanwhile Czisny's spot on the podium, let alone the World team, is likely for other people to lose and even open the opportunity for her to win this year.
I think if Alissa skates well she will get PCS marks in the Mirai/Gracie range, and below Ashley's. The USFSA should be pleased with Ashley's results in the last year and it makes sense that they will want to send her to 4CC and/or Worlds as the clear favorite amongst the American women. Obviously we need to see what happens at Nationals, but I think any close results are going to go Ashley's way because she is our most reliable competitor (currently) by a mile.
not according to Wagner...
Oh yeah, speaking of Wagner...new ESPNW blog on her preparation for Nationals
http://espn.go.com/blog/espnw/post/_...-for-nationals
She always comes across as confident, determined and ambitious but grounded and fun-loving at the same time. She has that girl-next-door thing going on.
Well if that is the case then she (Alissa) obviously wouldnt make it if they all skate well, as if her all skate well her technical is the weaker than Gold (by alot) and a bit weaker than Nagasu too. Her PCS would have to be higher to compensate, to even have chance at 2nd or 3rd.
She does get more points on the other TES elements and probably better GOE on the jumps she does land because her flow into and out of (successful) jumps is impressive. It is rare that we see most of the top skaters skate their best so i think Alissa has as good a chance of silver as anyone else, especially after seeing her SP yesterday.
On spins and spirals she gets more points than alot of skaters, but Nagasu can match her there. Her jumps get better GOE than others you think, sorry I think the reverse, her jumps always get little GOE even when at her best compared to other top skaters.
Czisny competed her short program this week at a local competition - check it out:
http://www.fox11online.com/dpp/sport...01&status=true
(This may have been posted in the Czisny thread, but it is relevant here too.)
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She tightened up a bit on that first jump and came up short, but other than that - looks like she hasn't missed much of a beat. She'll probably want to pick up some speed though. Again, remember that this is only the SP...the FS will show her REAL endurance and ability.
FYI....another thread was opened that she was injured during her FS.
There was a video posted (it has since been taken down) that showed her, WAY on the other side of the rink (from the camera view), going down on a jump, possibly a 3F, and unable to get back up again. After a few moments she was approached on-ice by staff and then the video ends. No word on whether she was able to get up on her own power or whether they had to carry her out on a stretcher.
Not clear exactly HOW she got injured but perhaps her knee/hip twisted funny when she went down. Perhaps UR and then twisted it on the ice. Ouch, sounds painful
Doesn't look good for Nationals - or the future of her competitive career for that matter. Fortunately for her, she is the type of skater who can entertain without needing to do jumps, so perhaps she might have a future in show skating.
You are correct, it was, indeed, a Triple Flip. It's caused her problems in the past, and it just wasn't her day :(
I've heard rumours that she had to be carried out on the stretcher. This doesn't bode well.
Your suspicions are correct. It was under-rotated, and because she still had momentum from the rotations, her blade, although sideways, kept going. The result, a painful one.
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