01-28-2013, 11:06 PM
The US desperately wants those 3 spots back, so it will be on BOTH Wagner and Gold to get the job done. Wagner cannot do it by herself - even if she WON worlds last year it wouldn't have been enough thanks to Czisny's epic meltdown...
A team is only as good as its weakest link. Gold has an unconvincing record and Wagner has had recent freeskate struggles. Not a good sign.
For Wagner, I'm thinking a turnout like Meissner 2008 worlds is most likely, where she falls 1 or 2 times in the free en route to a 6th or 7th place finish. Or worse (!), if the current trend is any indication....maybe it's not so far fetched to imagine a scenario where Gold is the higher finisher.
Last edited by R.D.; 01-28-2013 at 11:09 PM.
01-28-2013, 11:19 PM
Hmm. I'm thinking it's good for Gold to get some more international experience at 4CC before being thrust into Worlds--the USFSA knew what they were doing there. If she medals, maybe it'll boost her confidence even more. Her main struggles this season have been with nerves, and she's currently seeing a sports psychologist to refine her mental standpoint. I have no doubt she's capable of finishing in the top six or eight, but the 1 in 3 record is worrying. A SC or Nats-quality SP would bury her.
01-29-2013, 12:56 AM
A month ago I thought Wagner was a lock for 3rd or 4th, with about 5 good skates in a row, marred only by the 2 fall GpF which still scored Well. Now we have two 2-fall comps in a row. Wagner is no longer a lock for 3rd or 4th, and could easily fall to 6th or 7th. I think Gold may outskate Wagner, but like at Omaha, I don't know if the judges will score her higher than Wagner, let alone people like Suzuki, Sotnikova, and Osmond. I agree Gold should go to 4CC while she is hot coming off her Omaha FS. She needs international exposure to build up her PCS, as she doesn't want to get buried after the SP due to low PCS.
01-29-2013, 03:21 AM
I just hope people don't get on Gracie if the US doesn't get the 3rd spot back. A top ten finish at her first Worlds would be good but expecting her to finish in the top 6 is asking to much i think.
01-29-2013, 08:17 AM
Everything can happen) IF other skaters won't have harder jumps/fully rotated jumps at Worlds (which is VERY likely), the youngsters can even medal..
Originally Posted by Jammers
01-29-2013, 08:49 AM
Some interesting statistics:
When leading after the short program, Rachel Flatt and Caroline Zhang are undefeated.
Ashley Wagner has lost one time when leading after the short (2009 NHK Trophy).
Alissa Czisny has lost one time when leading after the short (2002 Eastern Great Lakes Regionals).
Mirai Nagasu has given up six short program leads (2008 Junior Worlds, 2009 Cup of China, 2010 US Championships, 2010 World Championships, 2010 Cup of China, 2011 US Championships).
01-29-2013, 09:44 AM
At the rink. Again.
I think Gold may have figured out where she needs to be mentally to put it together after watching that warm up and FS at Nationals. I saw that killer instinct on both the warm up and when she took her starting pose. She talked a bit about her mindset going out to skate the free at Nationals being - skate clean programs like I do at home, shut out the noise, the crowd, the judges, this is just like being at CID or Glacier. If her sports psych is worth the money, he/she will help her come up with a pre-competition routine to get her into the same thought process for 4C, Worlds and beyond. Alex O also talked to her about shutting out placement from her mind - don't think about your dream to be on the podium here, just go be Gracie...
Originally Posted by ForeverFish
01-29-2013, 10:32 AM
Hopefully she has, but I still think being in 9th took some of the pressure off. She has impressed us for so long that it's easy to forget she's still a first year senior and still trying to figure out how to prepare to give her best performances.
Originally Posted by mskater93
01-29-2013, 11:59 AM
Rejoicing in the land of Kwan
Exactly. IMO there's much more pressure at the top than in 9th place.
Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy
It's easy to say I'll block everything out and focus on me and skate just like in practice...but will that mental toughness hold when she's sitting in 2nd place or 3rd place with a legitimate chance of winning? We'll see. I'm sure she's one of the favorites heading into 4CC...
01-29-2013, 12:28 PM
Gracie has about 4 international events under her belt so far. That includes being on the Junior circuit. Younger skaters like Tuk and Adelina have a lot more experience internationally. I think people forget that despite being 17 she's still getting used to this. If and when she finds her way watch out.
01-29-2013, 12:30 PM
At the rink. Again.
I bet she put MORE pressure (but a different kind) on herself being in 9th after the SP. She just has to focus on what she needs to do and forget the rest. Figure out how to get there consistently...
01-29-2013, 02:07 PM
I don't know, R.D. I don't see any signs of desperation on anyone's part. Getting three spots instead of two for the Olympics benefits only one person -- the bronze medalist at 2014 Nationals. She gets to have the thrill of skating at the Olympics, the USFSA gets ???
Originally Posted by R.D.
It's not like we have three medal contenders, like Kristi, Nancy and Tonya, or Michelle, Sasha and Sarah.
01-29-2013, 02:10 PM
The good thing is she proved she can skate a clean LP with impressive TES.
The bad thing is the expectation for that kind of LP every time she comes out.
I'm afraid she might have peaked at Nat. Whatever the outcome, I hope she can really improve her PCS. She really needs to find a program that said Gracie Gold. Not the generic that she has been doing.
I don't know how young Mao, young Yuna, young Caro get those beautiful programs and none of the US girls have any captivating programs. Don't they all go to the same choreographers?
01-29-2013, 02:26 PM
Agree. I think it's more for pride than anything else--the US used to be a huge figure skating country. At this point, besides Gracie and Ashley, I can't think of any other American lady who would stand a chance at the Olympics.
Originally Posted by Mathman
01-29-2013, 02:36 PM
I think a small part of them want someone to have the chance to suddenly blow everyone away and have the skate of her life at the Olympics, like Sarah. Granted, Sarah was already solid on the GP circuit.
Originally Posted by Mathman