In fairness, this was before we saw just how well Kim and Kostner skated. I didn't think they'd return so strong and basically remove that possibility from contention.Originally Posted by FlattFan
In fairness, this was before we saw just how well Kim and Kostner skated. I didn't think they'd return so strong and basically remove that possibility from contention.
Flu? I thought it was food poisoning she dealt with. Nagasu was the one that had flu.
I don't think Wagner needs another event prior to worlds. She needs all the time she can buy at this point...
The point is this: With increased competition at Worlds this year, she cannot afford to skate like that there and have any hope of fulfilling the wish of 3 US spots. In fact, even if she laid down her TEB skate there, with the lack of difficulty, who's to say it would be enough for even 4th place? Even Kostner (one of the judges' faves) does 3-3 in the SP. Anyway, there is that possibility that Wagner just does not have a 3-3 ready or consistent enough to put in, and that will limit her score-wise. Probably shooting for 4th at best, 5th-6th realistically, etc.Ashley is not Alissa or Rachael. Other than the challenges she faces of late, she is probably the most fit I've ever seen her in the last few years. It is because of that muscle memory/good training that she was able to tough it out through Nationals. People seem to forget that she did a clean short program (unlike Alissa last year) and that while the long program was far from her best, it was hardly a meltdown.
I think that she could be in 4th place with a 3-3, if she doesn't do a 3-3 or a 2A+3T also Liza/Adelina/Gracie/Akiko/Kaetlyn can beat her...
^ True, at least Gracie Gold has the difficulty necessary to compete with the world's best...but does she have the consistency? (Nope, so far) The street cred? (Remains to be seen)
That's why I said then that it would be the worst World Champion in history. I can't even go back to any year to find a worse champion.
Remember mustafina's coach made her put in the amanar vault even in lesser competitions to make sure she had enough mileage out of it? I admire her for that. Wagner could have gone for 3x3 in easier competitions the entire season, and she didn't even bother to do 2A-3T. And people were ready to crown her then. Anyway, I don't see her placing 4th. I see maybe 7th or 8th with the way things are going. Maybe even worse.
I think what we have here is a training plan veering away from the ideal. Up until GPF, Ashley had been training well, with the strategy of solid clean programs that earn +GOE. The putting in difficult content for mileage technique doesn't work for ever body. In fact, if you look at Ashley's history, putting in difficult content when it was not ready (i.e. not mastered) actually resulted in her rushing through everything else and two footing the second jump.
As Moonlightskater, a poster who was at Skate America noted way earlier, Ashley was practicing 3-3s and 2A-3Ts and reeling out a few nice ones. So it's not a matter of not being able to do it -- it's a matter of mastering it. Big difference.
Then came the hip pointer in the FS (the 3S fall, in my view was rushed timing, not a reflection of some bigger problem) from that freak fall. And the food poisoning. Again, I know I keep harping on this, but when my husband had food poisoning it was not good. He was totally out of it for days. Think about it from an athlete's stance....when you're holed up trying to get better, those are days off your routine and you basically have to force your body to ramp up again. (I guess I'm coming from the standpoint that I tried running 2 miles after two weeks away and let me tell you, it was not pretty).
But luckily for Ashley she was well trained enough to do the SP well and get through the FS. So I think if you give her six weeks, she will be fine, honestly.
But I guess we will see come Worlds.
Coming into Nationals, I'd definitely agree with you that Ashley's training was simply suffering because of health issues and also, probably, general fatigue from all the traveling this season.
But, coming out of Nationals, my concern is Ashley's confidence may go downhill, following the two consecutive 2-fall long programs, not to mention the emergence of Gracie Gold as the hot new thing. Confidence has been the biggest factor for Ashley the last few years. When she's confident and feeling good, she's awesome. When she's doubting herself and feeling down, she suddenly drops from being a near-great to a fairly average skater. Her success has been based on her confidence and consistency. So, yeah, I'm kind of worried at this point. I know she can regroup in time for Worlds physically, but I'm not so sure about the mental aspect.
Ashley will peak at world's and earn a medal probably considering the weak field. he has the experience and ability; she can hold off the russians and KORPI.
I think that sufficient training will take care of the confidence aspect for Ashley. Mr. Nicks is known for doing run-throughs and drilling consistency. I believe the training Ashley did with him last year was the source of her confidence at the end of the season, and I have no reason to believe his training style has changed so drastically as to not be able to provide the same benefits. She just needs to be able to get the training in.
Too many times during the GP Series, I've read "It was smart of fillintheblank not to attempt the 3-3 because she didn't need it to win." Same thing on the men's side with the quad.
The problem with this line of thinking is that the skater doesn't have the opportunity to develop confidence that they can perform the jump under competition pressure. I don't think (but admit that I could be wrong) that Ashley hasn't done a 3-3 or even a 2A-3T in competition all season long.
Do we really believe she can unveil a SP 3-3 and a LP 3-3 and 2A-3 at the WC? I don't believe it, but I hope I'm wrong about that.
Yeah, she didn't need it to win at SA and in France and at Nationals, but what about when she DOES need it?
Patrick Chan, Daisuke Takahashi, Takahito Mura, Javier Fernandez, Yuzuru Hanyu, Tatsuki Machida and Takahiko Kozuka were the GP(F) gold medalists this season. All went for the quad. Just sayin'
Well, the thing is I fully expected her to go for it at Nationals, as did she. The problem was a nasty fall at the GPF causing hip pointer and food poisoning slowing her training down. So now I don't expect her to go for the 3-3 (I do expect the 2A-3T though). Now she does need it. Is it too little too late? Very possibly. We won't know until Worlds.The problem with this line of thinking is that the skater doesn't have the opportunity to develop confidence that they can perform the jump under competition pressure. I don't think (but admit that I could be wrong) that Ashley hasn't done a 3-3 or even a 2A-3T in competition all season long.
Do we really believe she can unveil a SP 3-3 and a LP 3-3 and 2A-3 at the WC? I don't believe it, but I hope I'm wrong about that.
Yeah, she didn't need it to win at SA and in France and at Nationals, but what about when she DOES need it?
Thanks for the correction. I was inadvertantly mixing my thoughts here with another thread... one which included discussion about how Jeremy Abbott should have foregone the quad attempt at US Nationals. In that context, my comment made a little more sense, which you would have detected had you been a mind reader.
The main point is this: Confidence in difficult technical parts of a program is gained when skaters have performed in competition. It's usually a let-down when we assume they're going to pull it out when they need it most, and they're attempting for the first time under competitive pressure.
Run-throughs at practice are one thing; knowing you can do it under judging scrutiny is another.
Abbott can't do a quad. Opening his program with a guaranteed fall takes the wind of of his sails choreography and sets the stage for other technical errors later in the program. (JMO.)
Abbott can do a quad. He's done it in past years and hit a few in practice at Skate America (which I had the fortune of getting to watch live). He can't currently hit one consistently. Even in the practice I saw he popped most of his attempts and only landed a few of the quads. I worry about his practice habits on that jump, and in general. He pops in practice A LOT.
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