I think John Nicks has his work cut out for him. Ashley has to go into Worlds like she is skating for the world championship. If she backs in hoping not to fall, there's trouble ahead.
I think John Nicks has his work cut out for him. Ashley has to go into Worlds like she is skating for the world championship. If she backs in hoping not to fall, there's trouble ahead.
I think she will be more aggressive at Worlds. She has nothing to defend so she will have less pressure than she did at Nationals. With Yuna, Mao, and Caroline all skating reasonably well lately Ashley knows she has attack her programs. My worry for Ashley is that she could find herself far back in the standings even with a clean SP. In addition to the top names beating her on PCS, anyone who does a 3/3 can also place ahead of Ashley in the SP as we saw at TEB and at Nationals where a clean Agnes would have beaten Ashley. So without a 3/3, Ashley could find herself behind the top 3 favorites, two Russians, Gracie, Kaetlyn, and Akiko with a clean program.Originally Posted by Mathman
You are assuming all these would skate clean. I don't know about that, ice IS slippery.
Also, at Nationals, Wagner was battling salmonella from the previous week and still recovering from the hip pointer (training-wise, at least). Assuming she can avoid more rancid chicken ceasar salad, she SHOULD be in better fighting shape.
True, but the women are attempting content in the SP that they are quite comfortable with; we see a number of 3T-3T combos and 3L. I don't think we will see many mistakes in the SP. I still think Ashley will need a 3-3 in the short to be in the top 6.
You are assuming Ashley would skate clean. I don't know about that, either. Remember, she's not a SP skater. She didn't do so well in the SP last year, right?
So, giving the same consideration, if all clean, she will be around 7 or 8.
If all make one mistake, she will be around 7 or 8.
If she's clean, and all make mistake, then she maybe stay in the top 3.
I basically agree except if all clean (without triple-triple) I see her more 5-7 than 7 or 8. One mistake I agree 7 or 8, maybe 9 depending how others do. Her only hope of podium here though is if others make mistakes. That said it seems likely Mao will, shich could open up a spot for Ashley or someone else strong enough to take it.
For SP only, here are some who will place higher than her if they are clean and she is clean.
Mao,yuna, Carolina, adelina, Liza, kiira, akiko, maybe even Gracie and the Canadian girl as well.
There are about 9 girls who can get ahead of her.
Maybe with enough push, her pcs will cancel out some of her tes deficit, that's why I think at best, she can hope for 7 or 8. At worst, could be out of top 10, even when she is clean.
THIS. Precisely this...
I guess we are counting a bit differently. I think a clean Ashley beats a clean Liza and Akiko for sure. I wish it were not so about Akiko but the judges do not like her for some reason, and I don't think Liza will get PCS high enough to place over clean Ashley. I think a clean Ashley probably beats a clean Gracie and Osmond as well. I think a clean Ashley possibly beats a clean Kiira.
However, I take your point. I guess we'll see what happens
ETA: For this post I am also addressing SP only.
Last edited by tulosai; 02-08-2013 at 02:29 PM.
The big question Wagner will be facing is whether to go for the 3-3 and 2A/3T. I don't know how consistent or comfortable she is with those jumps, especially considering her recent setbacks. Like MM implied, I think she'll just have to take a deep breath and go for broke, holding nothing back. Only then will she have some sort of shot, assuming she doesn't screw up.
Gold will obviously go for it all - I will wait until after Four Continents for final thoughts on her.
If she goes for broke, it will take at least a few melt down for her to make the podium. She's second tier. Only way is to out TES the top girls. Problem is the top girls currently out TES her. And with PCS disadvantage, it is grim and dim prospect.
I know, RIGHT.
Next year's Olympics could be a shark tank.
You've got.
Yu-Na Kim, the reigning Olympic Champ who can put up unreal scores.
Mao Asada, the two time world and two time GPF champions who can do three triple axels in a single competition.
Carolina Kostner, the PCS Queen, who is at the peak of her career.
Kaytlyn Osmond, Canadian star, who is surprisingly good, and dominant.
Julia Lipinskaia, the Junior World Champion who put up a 187 spot (Junior World Record). One of the best spinners.
Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA. Absolute beast. Can give you 7 triples every day.
Adelina SOTNIKOVA, THREE time Russian national champion whose personal best score is eighth in the world.
Kanako Murakami, 2010 Junior World Champion, and 2010-2011 GPF Bronze MEdalist. Has infinite potential.
Akiko Suzuki, a skater who found her mojo after 24. Absolutely on Fire.
Ashley Wagner, this girl is ferocious to compete with when she's on.
Gracie Gold. 3Lz-3T, 2A-3T, combinations make her a 130+ LP force to be reckoned with.
And the great thing is at least 6 of these skaters will be staying on for Pyongchang. It should be a wild ride.
Love this analysisI cant wait for the 2014 olys it is going to be so exciting!
I think this might be a worlds Ashley will want to forget, not as bad as czisny's last year, of course, but embarrassing. Going to worlds not winning the lp at her own nationals does not bode well. As one writer put it, Gracie stole her thunder. Psychologically, there is no way she is going to forget the falls she has had in her last two events, one resulting in a serious injury. I think she will skate conservatively and hold back, and as one poster indicated that could really be problematic. I think she should probably have gone to 4CC and in a less pressured competition than worlds hopefully had a good skate and completely regained her confidence. I expect Gracie will out rank her at worlds.
It seems like a lot of people are worried, and some have written out Wagner completely as a top contender. I would love nothing more than for her to do well and show everyone what's what, but then again, I want them all to do well. I'm not holding my breath, but I'll be very happy if Ashley does well. I just want everyone to be on their A-game, then I'll be happy no matter who medals.
Posting Permissions
Bookmarks