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Thread: State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

  1. #1066
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krislite View Post
    Depends on how she UR's them. If it doesn't result in a glaring error (step-out, hand down, fall), the GOE penalty may not be too bad.
    But it DOES matter. If she tries 3f+3t and gets 3f+3t<, the total points for that combo would be less than a clean 3f+2t. Same with 2a+3t<. Ashley above all needs to be completely clean to place high in this group of ladies.

  2. #1067
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    Quote Originally Posted by Serious Business View Post
    With the kind of ironic luck US women have been having at Worlds the last few years, Gracie will skate lights out to a surprise 5th place finish, while Ashley bombs into 9th place. *sadtrombone*
    I know I shouldn't but that did make me laugh...

    Sad trombone indeed!

  3. #1068
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    Actually, I worry that Asada's eight-triple free skate is too ambitious. If she hits every single element, she's definitely on the podium and maybe even the world champion. If she falters or missteps, the judges are sure to hammer her down -- she may not even finish in the top five with the level of skating that's going to be present.
    The level of skating or the level of jumping?

    If, for example, Asada attempts 8 triples and falters on 2 of them, that would still give her 6 successful triples. Few of her competitors would do more. And of those who do land 7 triples cleanly, the quality of Asada's skating might be superior enough to garner higher PCS. Depends who outjumps her and what else they do and how well. E.g., with 2 jump mistakes and only 4 clean triples she was able to win silver in Vancouver.

  4. #1069
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    Title of this thread seems so SERIOUS

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    Quote Originally Posted by bibi24 View Post
    Title of this thread seems so SERIOUS
    Well, it's a pretty dire situation. If Worlds were held in November we'd be in pretty good shape, but since then our top ladies have skated worse and the other top contenders have improved substantially.

  6. #1071
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    Quote Originally Posted by bibi24 View Post
    Title of this thread seems so SERIOUS
    Indeed. Just like my forum name. The State of American Women Skating is serious, like a funeral, 'cause it's dying. But it could always be worse! Just look at the American Men! That's beyond a funeral. The body is lost at sea for years and counting. But whatever you do, don't look at American pairs, where it's a truly gruesome massacre.

  7. #1072
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    Quote Originally Posted by gkelly View Post
    The level of skating or the level of jumping?

    If, for example, Asada attempts 8 triples and falters on 2 of them, that would still give her 6 successful triples. Few of her competitors would do more. And of those who do land 7 triples cleanly, the quality of Asada's skating might be superior enough to garner higher PCS. Depends who outjumps her and what else they do and how well. E.g., with 2 jump mistakes and only 4 clean triples she was able to win silver in Vancouver.
    Both.

    Unfortunately, jumping mistakes do influence PCS--Interpretation will be lower if the program isn't skated how it was meant to be. A difficult program can bring more rewards, but also more risk, because it gives the judges leeway to be extremely picky. In Vancouver, Asada's main (some might even say only) rival was Kim. At Worlds, though, more than one lady can knock Asada right off the podium if she isn't clean--Kostner, Kim, Wagner (2012 4CC, anyone?), and maybe even a squeaky Tuktamysheva. It's better, IMO, to have six or seven triples one can land consistently. And we all know the triple axel, Asada's biggest weapon, has given her grief in the past.

  8. #1073
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    Well...post Worlds...

    On one hand I was a little let down by Wagner's performance (thought she could have done better - much better), but on the other I'm thrilled that FINALLY we have that 3rd spot back - and just in time for the Olympics! FINALLY! I'm sure Zawadzki, Gao, Czisny et al. must be thrilled at this result because it means their chances at the Olympic team just improved a little. STILL going to be a blood bath at Nationals next year because even with 3 spots you have maybe 6 different women in contention.

    Hopefully we won't waste it and let's choose three of the most deserving skaters next year to go.

  9. #1074
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    I hope you give Gao a chance to compete at Sochi

  10. #1075
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    Well...post Worlds...

    On one hand I was a little let down by Wagner's performance (thought she could have done better - much better), but on the other I'm thrilled that FINALLY we have that 3rd spot back - and just in time for the Olympics! FINALLY! I'm sure Zawadzki, Gao, Czisny et al. must be thrilled at this result because it means their chances at the Olympic team just improved a little. STILL going to be a blood bath at Nationals next year because even with 3 spots you have maybe 6 different women in contention.

    Hopefully we won't waste it and let's choose three of the most deserving skaters next year to go.
    Ashley could have done a bit better---maintain her 4th place from last year, but I say 5th with a loaded field isn't bad.

    To be honest, I think Ashley is happy that she can say that she was part of the team that helped get three spots back instead of being known as the skater who was part of the team that lost it. I mean think about it that was in 2008---can you imagine the burden she probably felt all those years -- especially since it cost her a spot at the Olympics.

  11. #1076
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    Ashley could have done a bit better---maintain her 4th place from last year, but I say 5th with a loaded field isn't bad.
    Not since Kwan/Cohen years has an American lady been able to maintain or improve her World placement in consecutive trips. From the glass half-full perspective, however, Wagner IS the first to maintain top 5 finish in consecutive years since Meissner 2006-07.

    To be honest, I think Ashley is happy that she can say that she was part of the team that helped get three spots back instead of being known as the skater who was part of the team that lost it. I mean think about it that was in 2008---can you imagine the burden she probably felt all those years -- especially since it cost her a spot at the Olympics.
    Yes, I agree. It wasn't her night but she held it together enough to maintain her 5th place. It was Gracie Gold moving up from 9th to 6th that really sealed the deal. Although she only needed to move up to 8th for the 3rd spot. So they both did their part and they can be proud of that. Small steps is what it will take - if no medal, at least get 3rd spot back and then hopefully, use it to increase chances of podium finish the next year!

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    Imagine, though - if Gold really learns how to compete - I would NOT be shocked to see her leapfrog Wagner and become the top US lady, at least internationally. She actually beat Wagner in the FS by 2 points (but didn't pass her overall due to the SP).

  13. #1078
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    Imagine, though - if Gold really learns how to compete - I would NOT be shocked to see her leapfrog Wagner and become the top US lady, at least internationally. She actually beat Wagner in the FS by 2 points (but didn't pass her overall due to the SP).
    Oh I can imagine it. Gracie scored 125 for a program with just a few little mistakes. Goes to show that perhaps that 130+ score she got at Nationals isn't all that inflated.

    That said, I really do think Ashley was quite affected by the injury/sickness -- so I'm happy she held it together for two consecutive top 5 finishes. Also great news both Gracie and Ashley will be seeded for GP, which means they won't have to face each other (which could bode well as far as trying to get more US ladies to the GPF...)

    I'm hoping Ashley will stay healthy for next year ---I think she knows she needs a consistent 2A-3T + 3-3. I have a feeling that she will be hungry for more.....

  14. #1079
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    I mean, Wagner's FS at Worlds was an improvement over GPF and Nationals - but still not at the level she was at during the GP. (With a repeat of TEB FS she would have medaled...) Wagner has always peaked earlier in the season before tapering off, usually at Nationals (which is why she would miss the Olympic / World team several times)...she needs to pace her training better so she peaks later on.

    It was a good thing Gold went to 4CCs...looks like she got the remaining rough showings out of her system before worlds.

    It remains to be seen whether Wagner can remain healthy for the Olympic season...but honestly, she will need to up the ante (this would increase risk of injury, of course, but it's a necessary evil) to remain competitive even nationally. Gold will outjump her, and you've skaters like Hicks knocking on the door. If you don't adapt, you'll get left behind- unless, of course, your name is Yuna Kim (and it certainly isn't for any of the Americans...)

    Oh yeah, I should point out that some folks wanted C Gao to go to Worlds after seeing Gold at 4CC...well, she wouldn't have finished 6th, that's for sure...she'd probably be closer to 10th, similar to how the Russian kids did.

  15. #1080
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    I mean, Wagner's FS at Worlds was an improvement over GPF and Nationals - but still not at the level she was at during the GP. (With a repeat of TEB FS she would have medaled...) Wagner has always peaked earlier in the season before tapering off, usually at Nationals (which is why she would miss the Olympic / World team several times)...she needs to pace her training better so she peaks later on.

    It was a good thing Gold went to 4CCs...looks like she got the remaining rough showings out of her system before worlds.

    It remains to be seen whether Wagner can remain healthy for the Olympic season...but honestly, she will need to up the ante (this would increase risk of injury, of course, but it's a necessary evil) to remain competitive even nationally. Gold will outjump her, and you've skaters like Hicks knocking on the door. If you don't adapt, you'll get left behind- unless, of course, your name is Yuna Kim (and it certainly isn't for any of the Americans...)

    Oh yeah, I should point out that some folks wanted C Gao to go to Worlds after seeing Gold at 4CC...well, she wouldn't have finished 6th, that's for sure...she'd probably be closer to 10th, similar to how the Russian kids did.
    I think Ashley will learn from this season. You are correct about small steps. There was SO much pressure on her over repeating at U.S. Champion, getting back the three spots and also trying to ramp up after injury/sickness, she had a lot to juggle in one year. And from a mental standpoint, how do you exactly train for all that?

    I think now that she has this season behind her with some relative progress -- no medal at Worlds, but she did get two gold medals and a silver at the GP, something she has not done before -- including getting those three spots back and repeating as National Champion (yes, yes let's set aside the debate about the judging), I think she has more mental space to focus on mastering the 3-3/2A-3T.

    That is my hope anyway.

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