State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

[flutzy13]

My thoughts on the 3rd spot

I think Wang or Miller should be in the conversation but probably will not be. I find them to have way more potential than some of the seniors that have been around longer. Miller performed to her music better than anyone at nationals, in my opinion. She had that Lipinski star quality.

I did find Gao impressive (artistic and decently consistent) and she's becoming a sentimental fave with all the 5th places. The year off from Harvard could be the difference.

I'm kind of over Agnes- she's had so many chances and not delivered on stages way smaller than the Olympics. Unless she can put down a clean long next year at Nationals and her GP, just no. I fear USFSA may not be on the same page.

Hicks- out of the top 10 at Nationals, she was by far the least pleasant to watch. Then her big jumps (which are her ticket) failied her at Junior Worlds. It pains me to think of watching her at the Olympics over Gao, Miller, Wang, Nagasu.

Siraj & Cesario- neither really shined at Junior Worlds. So probably not in the conversation.

Nagasu- USFSA seemed to send a harsh message that they were done with her and she no longer has the Frank factor. She will have to have the skate of her life at nationals and give them no reason whatsoever to question her jumps.

Czisny- I don't think she's coming back but maybe three spots changes that. We'll see. If she's clean at nationals, I could see judges really getting behind her or dumping her totally

Flatt-No comment. I wish her well at Stanford and am genuinely glad she seems so happy there.

My dream team- Ashley, Gracie, Hannah
My more realistic team which would also be great- Ashley, Gracie, Christina

[R.D.]

Here's something to chew on:

With the exception of the 2008 team, which had Meissner, Liang and Wagner, every team since then up to this year has had either Flatt, Czisny or both of them on it. The first year without either Flatt or Czisny on the team, the US regains the 3rd spot.

Moral of story? Keep Flatt and/or Czisny off the World team at all costs and odds are we'll be fine

If either of them is 3rd next year, go ahead and send them to Sochi, but for the love of God substitute someone else in for the World team...

[R.D.]

Polina Edmunds was born on May 18, 1998, so she will be old enough (barely).

But given the girl has no international experience whatsoever (though she probably should have gotten some JGPs last falls), I think she would have to have the SOHL to make the Olympic team.

Someone like Edmunds would be on the 2018 cycle, not 2014.

[chuckm]

2008: Meissner 7th, Liang 10th, Wagner 16th
2009: Flatt 5th, Czisny 11th
2010: Nagasu 7th, Flatt 9th
2011: Czisny 5th, Flatt 12th (injured)
2012: Wagner 4th, Czisny 22nd (injured)

Flatt won't be back for the Sochi season. She has said that she still suffers from tendonitis and back spasms, and if she could skate without pain, she would, but for now she's concentrating on school.

However, we don't know if Czisny will come back. She will be 26 in June and has had two surgeries on her hip. If she does come back, I'm afraid USFS will welcome her with open arms. I just hope they won't give her the 3rd spot unless she can prove that she is both physically and mentally competitive.

[Mrs. P]

Here's something to chew on:

With the exception of the 2008 team, which had Meissner, Liang and Wagner, every team since then up to this year has had either Flatt, Czisny or both of them on it. The first year without either Flatt or Czisny on the team, the US regains the 3rd spot.

Moral of story? Keep Flatt and/or Czisny off the World team at all costs and odds are we'll be fine

If either of them is 3rd next year, go ahead and send them to Sochi, but for the love of God substitute someone else in for the World team...

I really don't think Flatt is returning anyway. She was quite noncommittal when asked about a comeback. And it wasn't even that "I'm going to try to keep you all on my toes" statement ala Joannie Rochette.

"At this point, I'm obviously very busy with school and everything," she said. "At the same time, skating is near and dear to my heart, and I'd like to be involved as long as I possibly can. If I'm able to train without pain, that would be incredible. If I can do that, I would definitely consider competing through next year, but my health and academics come first; I wouldn't be at Stanford if that weren't the case."

[R.D.]

I think Flatt is done too but you never know - perhaps the news of a 3rd spot opening up might have her reconsidering. Still, even if she made the effort I think she'd fall short. We have new contenders now and the one thing Flatt used to have going for her is consistency, but even that's gone now so there's nothing left for her to offer (sorry if that sounds harsh).

As for Czisny, all indications point to her going for it next season. I think she was going to try regardless, but now with a 3rd spot I think she will almost certainly continue unless she physically can't. She is capable of top 3 but again, she needs to control her nerves. Not convinced she can do that, especially since she had decent shots in 2006 and 2010 and squandered both opportunities. And she (like Wagner) will need more difficult content to keep up with Gold, Hicks and Zawadzki.

[Mrs. P]

I think Flatt is done too but you never know - perhaps the news of a 3rd spot opening up might have her reconsidering. Still, even if she made the effort I think she'd fall short. We have new contenders now and the one thing Flatt used to have going for her is consistency, but even that's gone now so there's nothing left for her to offer (sorry if that sounds harsh).

As for Czisny, I take it from the message she sent me that she will go for it next season. I think she was going to try regardless, but now with a 3rd spot I think she will almost certainly continue unless she physically can't. She is capable of top 3 but again, she needs to control her nerves. Not convinced she can do that, especially since she had decent shots in 2006 and 2010 and squandered both opportunities. And she (like Wagner) will need more difficult content to keep up with Gold, Hicks and Zawadzki.

A message she sent you? Didn't know you guys were BFFs!

[R.D.]

A message she sent you? Didn't know you guys were BFFs!

nevermind, forget it. post has been edited.

[Mrs. P]

nevermind, forget it. post has been edited.

Aw, I really thought you had an inside on Miss Czisny. Anyway yeah, I think Czisny is going to go for a last ditch effort for her Olympic dream. Flatt has been to the Olympics and did two solid programs there, so I don't see anything motivating her to return.

[R.D.]

Aw, I really thought you had an inside on Miss Czisny. .

I've met my fair share of skaters (Czisny included), but I'm not exactly Phil Hersh

[ForeverFish]

Well, they did it! What a huge achievement, especially for Gracie at her first Worlds. I can't wait to see how she and Ashley stack up next year.

That being said, I've been contemplating the Olympic teams that the USFSA could make. Gracie and Ashley, barring injury, are on it for sure. Third place will be a toss-up between Gao, Nagasu, and Zawadzki, and at this point, I honestly can't predict who'd win. Gao has made major strides this season, and an off-year from Harvard could make all of the difference in her skating, but she still lacks the show quality that would boost her second mark. Nagasu was motivated enough at the start of this season, but having the flu at Nationals really disrupted her progress. The USFSA might be looking for her to retire so that the younger girls can have their time in the spotlight, and I think that she herself lacks the speed and energy that she had three years ago in Vancouver. And I'm not sure what it is about Zawadzki that makes the judges favor her so much, but she tends to melt down at high-pressure competitions. So there are serious drawbacks to all three.

My dream Olympic team:
Ashley, Gracie, Christina

More realistically:
Ashley, Gracie, Agnes

Dark horses for the 3rd spot:
Courtney Hicks, Samantha Cesario, Angela Wang, Hannah Miller

[pangtongfan]

If Flatt somehow returned she would do well to finish 12th at Nationals. She will never be on another World or Olympic team regardless what she decides at this point, and I think that is a large reason she has pretty much retired and is non enthused about any idea of coming back (along with prioritizing school, long standing injuries, etc...). Czisny would be more of a potential threat but at this point I dont see her being put on the Olympic team unless she skates like Nationals 2011 and others make mistakes, but with 3 spots they might be willing to send her behind Wagner and Gold as there isnt much risk and she always has potential to skate great and spring a strong result.

[silverlake22]

Is Edmunds old enough to go to Sochi? Will she skate as a Senior at Nationals?

Edmunds is the same age as Lipnitskaya and Pogorilaya, all 3 are old enough for Sochi but next season is the first that they are age-eligible for (all) senior international competitions. Given Edmunds won the junior ladies title at Nationals this year and has already competed domestically as a junior for 3 seasons now, I think she will definitely skate as a senior at Nationals, but internationally as a junior. I don't think she really has much of a chance to make the team, I was more saying that if she somehow could I would be happy. If she does really well on the JGP though and were to medal/win at the final, then skate a blinder at Nationals, idk, perhaps she could maybe get the 3rd spot. But it's a pipe dream really. Given that she's so young it's alright though, hopefully she will have her time to shine later.

[R.D.]

I think a HEALTHY Czisny v2.0 is the biggest threat to the skater pool gunning for that third spot and may even have Wagner looking in her rear view. But, given that it's an Olympic year, an even-numbered year at that, I don't think such a threat will materialize.

The dark horse at this point is probably Hicks.

[silverlake22]

A healthy Czisny whose skating consistently...after such a short recovery time from TWO consecutive injuries, an entire season off, and who has never been a particularly strong or consistent jumper or competitor and never had the toughest content, at the age of 27...I just don't see that happening. She may be gifted the 3rd spot but I doubt she will be threatening Ashley or whoever the 2nd member of the team may by - highly unlikely IMO. Can she even compete on the GP this season?