What are Mao Asada's chances of becoming Olympic Champion in 2014?

[mary01]

Pangtongfan, I love YuNa, but i'm curious as to how you arrive at 40% odds for her (so much better odds than anyone else on your list) after her 2+ years away from competitive skating. Have we seen her do enough recently to make the outcome so sure? Of course I'd love to see her do well, but at this point, is enough evidence in to give us such a good picture of YuNa as compared to everyone else?

As for Mao, I just cross my fingers and hope. Since YuNa already has a gold, this time around I want Mao to experience that for herself. If it's a matter of gaining additional power, surely she can improve her conditioning. This is a determined kid, and I don't think we've ever seen her go after something halfheartedly. I so love her style and artistry, and she also has the toughness of temperament that several of the current champions seem to lack.

I totally agree with everything you have said, I also hope that Mao will be the one to get the gold medal in 2014, knowing how hard she has and still works for it, and how much she has sacrificed to get.
if I had to make any odds I think the odds for kim would be rather slim, when I think of her two last outings and what she delivered there, add the two seasons where she practically was not competing make her chances even smaller. but everyone is entitled to there own opinion.

18 month from now is a long time, anything can happen until then, things can change very fast from now on, but right now Mao would be the skater i would put my money on. Remember she is the same skater who with her determination went from having a shaky start to the season, to be the first woman to land 3 3A at 2010 4cc, 2010 olympics, and 2010 worlds if this determination doesn't give one shivers i don't know what would give!

[Mao88]

All other Russians combined- 5%

I think Liza T has just as good a chance as Julia Lipnitskaya. A lot of doom merchants have been writing Liza off. However, she performed a superb SP today in the St. Petersburg Cup, scoring 69.43. Here are the protocols.

Positive GOE on all elements, including a 3Tx3T combination, 3R, and 2A. Very good PCS marks as well.

As for Mao, I just cross my fingers and hope. Since YuNa already has a gold, this time around I want Mao to experience that for herself. If it's a matter of gaining additional power, surely she can improve her conditioning. This is a determined kid, and I don't think we've ever seen her go after something halfheartedly. I so love her style and artistry, and she also has the toughness of temperament that several of the current champions seem to lack.

I think recruiting a specialist physical trainer to improve Mao's conditioning would be a very good move at this point. I think that her conditioning is the root cause of her problems and that a specialist physical trainer would be able to remedy that pretty quickly.

[pangtongfan]

I think Liza T has just as good a chance as Julia Lipnitskaya.

I am writing her off of winning the gold (well almost completely) since her PCS suck so much for the very top level of skater, and with only 1 year left to improve them can only improve so much, that it would need to be a splatfest for her to ever win the gold. A medal perhaps. You cant win the Olympics just by jumps alone anymore.

[pangtongfan]

I don't know how big a chance YuNa has, and I haven't seen her skating recently. But, I can tell you this. Without some confidence on her own technical level, she would not have made a decision to come back.

Exactly. I dont think she would come back for the Olympics unless she felt truly ready, and if she does she is still way better than everyone else out there now, or anything we have seen since Vancouver. She nearly won the 2011 Worlds and won the LP at the 2010 Worlds basically halfing it around. Assuming she comes back in decent shape she is the clear favorite.

[sky_fly20]

Mao has a good momentum for 2014, she looks to be back in competitive form and mentally this season
I think her biggest competitor at Worlds will be Ashley

[Mao88]

I am writing her off of winning the gold (well almost completely) since her PCS suck so much for the very top level of skater, and with only 1 year left to improve them can only improve so much, that it would need to be a splatfest for her to ever win the gold. A medal perhaps. You cant win the Olympics just by jumps alone anymore.

This is complete nonsense. Tuk's PCS is improving at quite a rate. Today she scored mostly 8's, with a total PCS score of 33.14.

Here is the video of her short program

Remember, she beat Kostner, Czisny, Wagner, Suzuki, Leonova, Murakami, and Nagasu last season (which incorporates the entire top 5 at 2012 Worlds!!) when her PCS was less developed than it is now. Add another 18 months of development and she will be a real threat for Gold in Sochi.

Mao has a good momentum for 2014, she looks to be back in competitive form and mentally this season

Hope your right

[christinaskater]

Never ignore Akiko! When she nails this program, it's going to give her huge scores!

[plushyfan]

I would like to see Mao's gold. But the russian wonder girls also have real chance.

[l'etoile]

Ice is so slippery; it is about timing too. For example Chan may have peaked too soon leaving the door for Tak or Hanyu. There may not be enough time for the Russian ballerinas to get to the top. Actually Wagner looks real good time wise and peaking. Mao is a bit concerning because she still hasn't fixed her jumps or made a real commitment do I drop some problem triples and focus on the triple axel and doing two in the free skate? Do I fix my flutz and do a triple triple for the short. She has switched her focus several times fromt he 3A to the other jumps but neither are consistent and it affects her whole program. There is still time and we really have to see HYuna skate before we make predictions of her rise to the top again. At least Johnny Weir has skated, legit or not Evan and Yuna like Miki are or were all talk. Remember Sasha Cohen well she did skate eventually but it was too late for her Olympic2010 dreams. maybe that's the problem skaters are too fickle maybe in part there isn't the money for pro comps and shows.

Yuna has track of record of keeping her words. She kept her promise to attend Worlds even when she was understandably exhausted after her victory in Vancouver -she was the first female olympic champion to go for the worlds after OGM since Christi Yamaguchi. She kept her promise to show at 2011 Worlds when most of people were all doubting and wondering if it was just all talk during the whole season, even right until Worlds started.

All I can say for now about anyone's chance for OGM: like you aptly quoted, "Ice is slippery."

[l'etoile]

Mao is a fighter and a determined skater, and she unlike MANY others has the whole package, both her technical content and presentation score could go sky high. Mao is the only skater i see as a real contender to the gold medal, at such an early stage.

don't forget this is still the first competition of the season, so all the flaws that she had here will be adjusted as the season goes by.

for me all the other skaters lack something either on the technical department or on their PCS. and then there is skaters like kim who is a big question mark for me!

I totally agree with everything you have said, I also hope that Mao will be the one to get the gold medal in 2014, knowing how hard she has and still works for it, and how much she has sacrificed to get.
if I had to make any odds I think the odds for kim would be rather slim, when I think of her two last outings and what she delivered there, add the two seasons where she practically was not competing make her chances even smaller. but everyone is entitled to there own opinion.

18 month from now is a long time, anything can happen until then, things can change very fast from now on, but right now Mao would be the skater i would put my money on. Remember she is the same skater who with her determination went from having a shaky start to the season, to be the first woman to land 3 3A at 2010 4cc, 2010 olympics, and 2010 worlds if this determination doesn't give one shivers i don't know what would give!

I so admire your dedication for your loving skater. It's really wonderful to see that Mao has wonderful supporters as likes of you

[babayaga]

I think if Kim returns she will be the main threat for the gold. I don't know what percentage I would give her, but I would personally consider her the favorite. Adelina and Lisa both have chances but neither looks as good as they seemed to be a couple of years ago when everyone talked about their super-difficult triple-triples and triple axels. Lisa's triple axel never materialized and Adelina seem to have lost her 3Lz-3L completely. Hope that Lisa will at least regain her 3L-3T, it was beautiful. So these two don't have technical advantage anymore to beat Yuna if she returns. Julia's form in 18 months is a big question mark, she is going to continue growing. All of this makes it much easier for Mao to fight for medals, since she will not be too far behind Russian girls technically (even without 3-3 and 3A) and should have an advantage in PCS. Overall I think she has a pretty good chance, but it will be more clear after we see her GP performances.

[lilbit]

I like Mao. I hope she wins.

[gmyers]

Kim Yu Na makes a lot of mistakes more than she is clean. 2010 was one of the most atypical Yuna perforamnces in her career. She was so clean at the Olympics it was remarkable and really rare. If she could repeat that again it would be amazing. So Mao could really win in 2014 just like she showed she could beat Yuna before. Not doing a 3A should be even better for Mao. So high risk even when she could do it more than she failed at it. Now she can barely do it even if she did her best one at 2012 4CC. So she never really has to do a 3A again and it is such a rare but not really benefical element to have. Mao didn't do one in her 2008 title and 1 in her 2010 title I think.

Then with Liza and Adelina and Julie i don't think its fair to say that all of their carreers will end before Sochi because of growth. I think that maintaining even a lesser level will keep them contenders and hope they do well. BUt even then Alena is not to be written off. Everyone keeps writing Alena off and saying she has no future for 2 years now and she placed 4th at 2011 worlds and second at 2012 worlds with winning the SP so don't forget Alena.

[pangtongfan]

Mao skates totally clean as rare in her career as Yu Na in hers, even when she was in her prime. Yu Na does not have to skate up to her Vancouver level to win, not at all. Her level in nearly all competitions in 07/2010 was such there was little chance of anyone beating her. She has had bad luck in her career at Worlds, skating well below her usual level (not her Vancouver level) in 2007 and 2008 due to major injury, and in 2010 due to all that she had to do in the month after her Olympic Gold before Worlds (2011 she just wasnt that trained or into it). Lastly Mao without a triple axel would be pretty easy for Yu Na to beat.

[gmyers]

Mao skates totally clean as rare in her career as Yu Na in hers, even when she was in her prime. Yu Na does not have to skate up to her Vancouver level to win, not at all. Her level in nearly all competitions in 07/2010 was such there was little chance of anyone beating her. She has had bad luck in her career at Worlds, skating well below her usual level (not her Vancouver level) in 2007 and 2008 due to major injury, and in 2010 due to all that she had to do in the month after her Olympic Gold before Worlds (2011 she just wasnt that trained or into it). Lastly Mao without a triple axel would be pretty easy for Yu Na to beat.

It is very true that Mao has not been very clean in a lot of performances but almost always that had to with 3A failure. Not at the 2010 Olympics though. That was all because of her popping a 3T into a 1T. She has expanded the number of non axel triples she is doing. Yuna will probably have both flip and lutz and clean flip and lutzs with no edge calls like Mao. If Yuna singles a jump that is usally a pathway for a Mao victory over Yuna but if that happens it is not the 3A that allowed Mao to beat Yuna if I remember the scores correctly.