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Thread: What are Mao Asada's chances of becoming Olympic Champion in 2014?

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by gmyers View Post
    It is very true that Mao has not been very clean in a lot of performances but almost always that had to with 3A failure. Not at the 2010 Olympics though. That was all because of her popping a 3T into a 1T. She has expanded the number of non axel triples she is doing. Yuna will probably have both flip and lutz and clean flip and lutzs with no edge calls like Mao. If Yuna singles a jump that is usally a pathway for a Mao victory over Yuna but if that happens it is not the 3A that allowed Mao to beat Yuna if I remember the scores correctly.
    The only competition Mao has ever beaten Yu Na in without a triple axel was the 2008 Worlds where Yu Na was injured and skated so badly that a 5 mistake Kostner finished above her (and nearly beat Mao).

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    The only competition Mao has ever beaten Yu Na in without a triple axel was the 2008 Worlds where Yu Na was injured and skated so badly that a 5 mistake Kostner finished above her (and nearly beat Mao).
    If you replaced those mao 3 axels with other triples even with edge calls would Mao still have won? I think the answer is yes because if you look at 2010 worlds she really only did one 3A! She wasn't credited for them a lot of the time. Yuna put herself in such a huge hole in 2010 SP that the 3A's Mao actually didn't do were not the deciding factor. Her performance at 2010 worlds even against post Gold medal Yuna was still more of a Mao victory and that was with 1 credited 3A.

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Mao skates totally clean as rare in her career as Yu Na in hers, even when she was in her prime. Yu Na does not have to skate up to her Vancouver level to win, not at all. Her level in nearly all competitions in 07/2010 was such there was little chance of anyone beating her. She has had bad luck in her career at Worlds, skating well below her usual level (not her Vancouver level) in 2007 and 2008 due to major injury, and in 2010 due to all that she had to do in the month after her Olympic Gold before Worlds (2011 she just wasnt that trained or into it). Lastly Mao without a triple axel would be pretty easy for Yu Na to beat.
    what the hell, Mao has skated a lot of clean programs and when i say clean i mean no popped jump no doubles, or mistakes that are visible to the naked eye, unlike kim where most of her performances consists of those kind of mistakes. by the Mao was the one skater who dominated from 2007-2009, it was after 2009 worlds that kim really began to dominate,and that beeing said it was all due to the (flaws) rules of the cop that where in kims favors, which resultet in those unreasonable scores!
    and then there is all the excuses you have for kim skating below her usuel level (in your oppinion), well If we had to see it like that,I think Mao's "excusses" knowing her unusuel circumstances the last to seasons speaks for itself, so lets keep the excuses aside and just accept reality as it is. lastly you claim that Mao without the axel would be pretty easy for kim to beat, because Mao's jump layout now is getting stronger, (why) because her programs don't carry the same amount of risk without the axel. and even if she decides to include it one axel, would still be much more likely to succed, then two which also make her succes rate much higher then before. secondly Mao's even from the beginning of season has 7 tripple program and i doubt kim is going to include seven tripples, and when it comes to spins, and steps Mao also has an advantage knowing that she will likely get level 4 on her spins and steps. then there is the PCS well we all know that the judges love kim, and her PCS would therefor probably remain but Mao's PCS is not shady in comparison. so where you get this idea that Mao would be easy for kim to beat and not the other way around i don't see,but like i said before everyone is entitled to their own opinion!
    Last edited by Tonichelle; 10-11-2012 at 09:11 PM. Reason: do not insult your fellow posters. stick to the topic of the post. review the guidelines if this is confusing.

  4. #34
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    It'll be interesting for sure.

    The first thing we need to remember: it's rare for an Olympics to be as good as Vancouver. It's rare to have that many skaters give SOHL. If you're lucky, you get a 1998 where the top two do astonishingly well. Maybe a 2002 or 2006, where the winner is all right but doesn't seem to control her own destiny as solidly. But we get 1994 or 1992 or 1988 too. The other thing we need to recall is that it's rare for an Olympics to utterly conform to the narrative of the quad as this past one did (Asada vs Kim).

    The reason is that I genuinely think Asada needs that kind of perfect night/skate to win. Given how rare it is.....

    On the other hand, if not Mao, than who? Suzuki? Only if she wins 2013 Worlds (possible) will she have the weight of her federation behind her. Right now she seems more like Takahiko Kozuka - a skater who could easily dropped for the flavour of the month or an old stalwart (even though she's older than Mao, Asada's been in our consciousness a lot longer).

    One of the Russians, perhaps? Possibly, maybe probably. The thing is that "insert name here" doesn't win. I just don't know which Russian lady would win (Lipnitskaia, Sotnikova, Tuktamisheva, Leonova....). Right now, they're a bit interchangeable (except Leonovoa, and she's the one that seems least likely to do so) to me, though I do like Sotnikova. I read elsewhere that Lipnitskaia wasn't eligible, but if they follow the same rule as they did in Vancouver (older than 15 by July 1, 2013) she's fine (her birthday is in June, as per wikipedia).

    Kostner? I don't think so. I think she'll probably outdo her results in Torino and Vancouver, though.

    Wagner or Gold? You know, I can see it (particularly Wagner). If either she medals at Worlds (or better yet, wins), the momentum and conviction she would have alongside the US Federation's political power would be a potent combination.

    Kim? Still don't know if she's guaranteed to compete.

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by mary01 View Post
    what the hell, Mao has skated a lot of clean programs and when i say clean i mean no popped jump no doubles, or mistakes that are visible to the naked eye, unlike kim where most of her performances consists of those kind of mistakes. by the Mao was the one skater who dominated from 2007-2009, it was after 2009 worlds that kim really began to dominate,and that beeing said it was all due to the (flaws) rules of the cop that where in kims favors, which resultet in those unreasonable scores!
    and then there is all the excuses you have for kim skating below her usuel level (in your oppinion), well If we had to see it like that,I think Mao's "excusses" knowing her unusuel circumstances the last to seasons speaks for itself, so lets keep the excuses aside and just accept reality as it is. lastly you claim that Mao without the axel would be pretty easy for kim to beat, because Mao's jump layout now is getting stronger, (why) because her programs don't carry the same amount of risk without the axel. and even if she decides to include it one axel, would still be much more likely to succed, then two which also make her succes rate much higher then before. secondly Mao's even from the beginning of season has 7 tripple program and i doubt kim is going to include seven tripples, and when it comes to spins, and steps Mao also has an advantage knowing that she will likely get level 4 on her spins and steps. then there is the PCS well we all know that the judges love kim, and her PCS would therefor probably remain but Mao's PCS is not shady in comparison. so where you get this idea that Mao would be easy for kim to beat and not the other way around i don't see,but like i said before everyone is entitled to their own opinion!
    Kim's jumps are much better quality than Asada's and get much higher GOE. Her PCS are generally higher. Her spins and steps do not score lower, I am not sure where you get that idea. Mao also flutzes, has trouble with various triples, and isnt as consistent with 3/3s as a semi fit Kim. So yes Mao without the triple axel isnt beating Kim unless she bombs. It only took one discounted spin for a very good Mao to lose to Wagner without her 3axel.


    Mao did not dominate 2007-2009. She did not dominate any season in her career. 2006-2007 Mao lost to Miki Ando twice, including at the Worlds. Kim won the GP final. Mao was dominant with a 3rd at Skate America, 2nd at the GP final, and 2nd at Worlds, you are crazy. In 2007-2008 Kim was the dominant skater all season until Worlds, and even at Worlds Asada won with a 2nd in the SP to Kostner and 2nd in the LP to injured Kim. In 2008-2009 Kim had the overall edge all season long, Asada came out ahead at the GP final, but otherwise Kim was the top skater from beginning to end. Asada was 1-3 vs Joannie Rochette this year, so please dont pretend she was even close to Kim even before Worlds. So in short 08-09 and 09-2010 Kim was by far the dominant skater of the season, and 06-07 and 07-08 there was no dominant skater (although 07-08 it was Kim until Worlds). Lastly the dominant Asada is the only 2 time World Champion in history to win neither of her titles by winning a single program, placing 2nd in both the short and long at both the 2008 and 2010 Worlds she won. Kim lost only 3 events from fall 2007-2011 Worlds, that in any sense of the World is both dominant and much more "dominant" than Asada has ever been.
    Last edited by Tonichelle; 10-11-2012 at 09:08 PM. Reason: remember to stick with the posts, and do not insult each other. review the guidelines.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Kim's jumps are much better quality than Asada's and get much higher GOE. Her PCS are generally higher. Her spins and steps do not score lower, I am not sure where you get that idea. Mao also flutzes, has trouble with various triples, and isnt as consistent with 3/3s as a semi fit Kim. So yes Mao without the triple axel isnt beating Kim unless she bombs. It only took one discounted spin for a very good Mao to lose to Wagner without her 3axel.
    To be completely fair we should remember that Kim lost to Ando who didn't have a 3-3 and only did 5 triples in LP. Kim made only one costly error and did not bomb at all. I don't see why Mao wouldn't be able to skate at the level that Miki skated 2 years ago.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Kim's jumps are much better quality than Asada's and get much higher GOE. Her PCS are generally higher. Her spins and steps do not score lower, I am not sure where you get that idea. Mao also flutzes, has trouble with various triples, and isnt as consistent with 3/3s as a semi fit Kim. So yes Mao without the triple axel isnt beating Kim unless she bombs. It only took one discounted spin for a very good Mao to lose to Wagner without her 3axel.
    I don't see where kim's jumps have better quality, Mao has great height on her jumps, good air positioning, good steady landings and generally solid jumps. Goe is therefor the easiest tool to manipulate the scores, one advice i would give is to look at the goe if one wants to see who the judges favor. simply because the goe on the same element can variate big time depending on the judge judging it, and yes kims steps do score lower she usuelly doesn't receive level 4, i atleast don't remember her ever receiving it, and if she has it's still not regurlary like Mao has. and yes Mao flutzes (through the edge is improving) but she still lands the lutz consistently, unlike kim who's salcow usuelly is doubled or popped. and yes maybe Mao may not by as consistent with the 3-3 since it's been awhile since she included it in her arsenal, but her overall jump layout makes up for it. and yes Mao lost alot of points because of that spin, but it's still the beginning of the season and i am pretty sure that, that spin mistake will not be repeated again. and that beeing said, we have yet to see what shape kim will show up in, and see if she will be able to deliver after her absence!

  8. #38
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    Mao's jumps don't have the same flow out as Kim, I'd argue. It'd be interesting to do a jump by jump comparison and see which ones actually tick the GOE boxes better.

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    Quote Originally Posted by babayaga View Post
    To be completely fair we should remember that Kim lost to Ando who didn't have a 3-3 and only did 5 triples in LP. Kim made only one costly error and did not bomb at all. I don't see why Mao wouldn't be able to skate at the level that Miki skated 2 years ago.
    Are you saying 2011 Worlds, which YuNa didn't want to go? It was her first competition of the season and she didn't have a sufficient motivation. She wasn't prepared sufficiently. This time, she will be much more prepared, because she learned a lesson then.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    Mao's jumps don't have the same flow out as Kim, I'd argue. It'd be interesting to do a jump by jump comparison and see which ones actually tick the GOE boxes better.
    Please no I still have nightmares about all the "Mao Asada cheated jumps!!" youtube videos that were posted every day a few years ago in crazy quantities. I do agree that Yuna's jumps are more impressive.

  11. #41
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    Mao's jumping ability was at the peak in 2005-2006 season, after that it has been degrading slowly but continuously. I think it is a physical process.
    Last edited by cosmos; 10-11-2012 at 09:50 PM.

  12. #42
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    Mao or Lipnitskaya, Adelina or Liza or Wagner.

  13. #43
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    Mao could win, the real question is if Kim will show and if so what kind of shape will she be in. I don't think anyone is expecting her to be in vancouver form, but anywhere decent = gold for Kim. So unless she bombs, or does not show at all, injury etc, Mao has a good chance if can improve before then and package herself well.

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    In 2011 Kim also couldn't depend on 2A's as much as she did before. The use was restriced. She needed to expand her jumps. In 2011 Mao had a 3A<<. It wasn't a benefit. Did lutz and flip. But in 2009 and 2010 everyone did point out 3A+2T was not actually a good mathematical combo because it was worth less than a triple triple. All 3A ever did was keep Mao close to Kim so if Kim made a mistake Mao could benefit and she did benefit even if Mao didn't even actually do a 3A!!

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by babayaga View Post
    To be completely fair we should remember that Kim lost to Ando who didn't have a 3-3 and only did 5 triples in LP. Kim made only one costly error and did not bomb at all. I don't see why Mao wouldn't be able to skate at the level that Miki skated 2 years ago.
    Please, Kim had atleast 3 significant errors over the two programs, Ando had only 1. In the short Kim didnt do her intended 3/3, practically fell on her triple lutz and still beat a clean Ando. Ando's LP was cleverly constructed to get a very high TES base value, and Kim still had more mistakes, and higher GOE on her successful elements. In general Kim's overall performances were about 55% of her Vancouver level and 70% of her normal pre Vancouver level. That same year Miki was beating Asada even when she skated very well with the triple axel (eg- Nationals and Four Continents).
    Last edited by Tonichelle; 10-12-2012 at 12:29 AM. Reason: Once again: do not insult other members in your post. Stick to what they said, or take it to PM.

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