and then there is all the excuses you have for kim skating below her usuel level (in your oppinion), well If we had to see it like that,I think Mao's "excusses" knowing her unusuel circumstances the last to seasons speaks for itself, so lets keep the excuses aside and just accept reality as it is. lastly you claim that Mao without the axel would be pretty easy for kim to beat, because Mao's jump layout now is getting stronger, (why) because her programs don't carry the same amount of risk without the axel. and even if she decides to include it one axel, would still be much more likely to succed, then two which also make her succes rate much higher then before. secondly Mao's even from the beginning of season has 7 tripple program and i doubt kim is going to include seven tripples, and when it comes to spins, and steps Mao also has an advantage knowing that she will likely get level 4 on her spins and steps. then there is the PCS well we all know that the judges love kim, and her PCS would therefor probably remain but Mao's PCS is not shady in comparison. so where you get this idea that Mao would be easy for kim to beat and not the other way around i don't see,but like i said before everyone is entitled to their own opinion!
Last edited by Tonichelle; 10-11-2012 at 09:11 PM. Reason: do not insult your fellow posters. stick to the topic of the post. review the guidelines if this is confusing.
It'll be interesting for sure.
The first thing we need to remember: it's rare for an Olympics to be as good as Vancouver. It's rare to have that many skaters give SOHL. If you're lucky, you get a 1998 where the top two do astonishingly well. Maybe a 2002 or 2006, where the winner is all right but doesn't seem to control her own destiny as solidly. But we get 1994 or 1992 or 1988 too. The other thing we need to recall is that it's rare for an Olympics to utterly conform to the narrative of the quad as this past one did (Asada vs Kim).
The reason is that I genuinely think Asada needs that kind of perfect night/skate to win. Given how rare it is.....
On the other hand, if not Mao, than who? Suzuki? Only if she wins 2013 Worlds (possible) will she have the weight of her federation behind her. Right now she seems more like Takahiko Kozuka - a skater who could easily dropped for the flavour of the month or an old stalwart (even though she's older than Mao, Asada's been in our consciousness a lot longer).
One of the Russians, perhaps? Possibly, maybe probably. The thing is that "insert name here" doesn't win. I just don't know which Russian lady would win (Lipnitskaia, Sotnikova, Tuktamisheva, Leonova....). Right now, they're a bit interchangeable (except Leonovoa, and she's the one that seems least likely to do so) to me, though I do like Sotnikova. I read elsewhere that Lipnitskaia wasn't eligible, but if they follow the same rule as they did in Vancouver (older than 15 by July 1, 2013) she's fine (her birthday is in June, as per wikipedia).
Kostner? I don't think so. I think she'll probably outdo her results in Torino and Vancouver, though.
Wagner or Gold? You know, I can see it (particularly Wagner). If either she medals at Worlds (or better yet, wins), the momentum and conviction she would have alongside the US Federation's political power would be a potent combination.
Kim? Still don't know if she's guaranteed to compete.
Mao did not dominate 2007-2009. She did not dominate any season in her career. 2006-2007 Mao lost to Miki Ando twice, including at the Worlds. Kim won the GP final. Mao was dominant with a 3rd at Skate America, 2nd at the GP final, and 2nd at Worlds, you are crazy. In 2007-2008 Kim was the dominant skater all season until Worlds, and even at Worlds Asada won with a 2nd in the SP to Kostner and 2nd in the LP to injured Kim. In 2008-2009 Kim had the overall edge all season long, Asada came out ahead at the GP final, but otherwise Kim was the top skater from beginning to end. Asada was 1-3 vs Joannie Rochette this year, so please dont pretend she was even close to Kim even before Worlds. So in short 08-09 and 09-2010 Kim was by far the dominant skater of the season, and 06-07 and 07-08 there was no dominant skater (although 07-08 it was Kim until Worlds). Lastly the dominant Asada is the only 2 time World Champion in history to win neither of her titles by winning a single program, placing 2nd in both the short and long at both the 2008 and 2010 Worlds she won. Kim lost only 3 events from fall 2007-2011 Worlds, that in any sense of the World is both dominant and much more "dominant" than Asada has ever been.
Last edited by Tonichelle; 10-11-2012 at 09:08 PM. Reason: remember to stick with the posts, and do not insult each other. review the guidelines.
Mao's jumps don't have the same flow out as Kim, I'd argue. It'd be interesting to do a jump by jump comparison and see which ones actually tick the GOE boxes better.
Mao's jumping ability was at the peak in 2005-2006 season, after that it has been degrading slowly but continuously. I think it is a physical process.
Last edited by cosmos; 10-11-2012 at 09:50 PM.
Mao or Lipnitskaya, Adelina or Liza or Wagner.
Mao could win, the real question is if Kim will show and if so what kind of shape will she be in. I don't think anyone is expecting her to be in vancouver form, but anywhere decent = gold for Kim. So unless she bombs, or does not show at all, injury etc, Mao has a good chance if can improve before then and package herself well.
In 2011 Kim also couldn't depend on 2A's as much as she did before. The use was restriced. She needed to expand her jumps. In 2011 Mao had a 3A<<. It wasn't a benefit. Did lutz and flip. But in 2009 and 2010 everyone did point out 3A+2T was not actually a good mathematical combo because it was worth less than a triple triple. All 3A ever did was keep Mao close to Kim so if Kim made a mistake Mao could benefit and she did benefit even if Mao didn't even actually do a 3A!!
Last edited by Tonichelle; 10-12-2012 at 12:29 AM. Reason: Once again: do not insult other members in your post. Stick to what they said, or take it to PM.