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Thread: What are Mao Asada's chances of becoming Olympic Champion in 2014?

  1. #46
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    I think Mao would have to improve a lot to have a chance at gold. Two years before Vancouver she was still doing 3/3s, and then she lost them and tried unsuccessfully to improve her lutz. Her current level is off her 2010 level, and far off her 2008 level. If I were her, I'd just settle for taking the edge call on the lutz and work on getting a 3/3 back because she could build up quite a lead in the SP with a 3A and a 3/3.

  2. #47
    Simply the best. l'etoile's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gmyers View Post
    In 2011 Kim also couldn't depend on 2A's as much as she did before. The use was restriced. She needed to expand her jumps. In 2011 Mao had a 3A<<. It wasn't a benefit. Did lutz and flip. But in 2009 and 2010 everyone did point out 3A+2T was not actually a good mathematical combo because it was worth less than a triple triple. All 3A ever did was keep Mao close to Kim so if Kim made a mistake Mao could benefit and she did benefit even if Mao didn't even actually do a 3A!!
    Is that why ISU valued up the points of 3A by 1.2pts right after Vancouver? IMO, it's "if Kim made numerous, serious mistakes, Mao could benefit for having two perfectly clean skates even if she didn't actually do a 3A" which is to say for everyone else in the field.

    I do agree that Mao has enough cushion for PCS. It was interesting to see that in 2011 worlds, Mao with 4 major mistakes - two dgs, edge calls, singling salchow - earned 45 pts for TES but 60 pts for PCS.
    Last edited by l'etoile; 10-12-2012 at 01:27 AM.

  3. #48
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    Mao did not dominate 2007-2009. She did not dominate any season in her career. 2006-2007 Mao lost to Miki Ando twice, including at the Worlds. Kim won the GP final. Mao was dominant with a 3rd at Skate America, 2nd at the GP final, and 2nd at Worlds, you are crazy. In 2007-2008 Kim was the dominant skater all season until Worlds, and even at Worlds Asada won with a 2nd in the SP to Kostner and 2nd in the LP to injured Kim. In 2008-2009 Kim had the overall edge all season long, Asada came out ahead at the GP final, but otherwise Kim was the top skater from beginning to end. Asada was 1-3 vs Joannie Rochette this year, so please dont pretend she was even close to Kim even before Worlds. So in short 08-09 and 09-2010 Kim was by far the dominant skater of the season, and 06-07 and 07-08 there was no dominant skater (although 07-08 it was Kim until Worlds). Lastly the dominant Asada is the only 2 time World Champion in history to win neither of her titles by winning a single program, placing 2nd in both the short and long at both the 2008 and 2010 Worlds she won. Kim lost only 3 events from fall 2007-2011 Worlds, that in any sense of the World is both dominant and much more "dominant" than Asada has ever been.
    you know what i find it soo amusing it's how denial you are, and how selective you are, you only chose to mention half of what really happened.

    2007-2008
    Mao won every competition she entered except the GPF (where she placed second) that's five out of six competition that she won, where as yuna only won three competitions in the same season and those where in the GP and GPF, which clearly shows that Mao was the most dominating skater that season

    2008-2009
    Mao won 4 competitions and a silver and a bronze and yuna also won 4 competition and a silver (they both dominated)

    2009-2010
    Mao won Nationals, 4CC, and Worlds, yuna won the Olympics and in the Granprix circuit (both winning two each of the most important competitions)

    overall results:
    Mao Asada won 6 big competition ( GPF twice, 4CC Twice, Worlds twice)
    Yuna Kim won 6 big competitions (3 GPF, 4CC once, Worlds once, OL once)
    Last edited by mary01; 10-12-2012 at 02:04 AM.

  4. #49
    Simply the best. l'etoile's Avatar
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    If you give 4cc and Oly games the same weight, yeah you're totally right!

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    mary01, talk about selective. Wow.

  6. #51
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    Let's see how the season goes first. Also, I don't think we should underestimate Lipnitskaya's chances. She has the jumps and there is time for her PCS to improve. Also, if she emerges as a contender she will have the backing of the host country.

  7. #52
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    Mao would have a fair chance to win, like everyone else, if she can regain either 3-3 or 3a, as I don’t see any currently competing lady becoming the clear favorite leading to Sochi. At Japan Open she was in descent shape, with seemingly more muscle mass in her lower body than before, although I couldn't see significant improvements in her jumps yet.

    Yu-Na will be a contender too. Unlike 2010 and 2011 WCs where her mind was travelling with little to gain and something to lose, she has legitimate motivation – to be the first defending champion going for a repeat since Katarina Witt, and keeping the interest in the sport at home leading up to the 2018 Pyeongchang Games. I think all the doubts and speculations would be actually relieving to her, as it would provide some headroom for her to build up for the Olympic season. Barring an injury she will skate at the coming Worlds, and we'll find out what shape she’s in.

  8. #53
    Simply the best. l'etoile's Avatar
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    As I marked above, I truly admire such strong support you give for Mao, mary01. But unfortunately...

    Quote Originally Posted by mary01 View Post
    you know what i find it soo amusing it's how denial you are, and how selective you are, you only chose to mention half of what really happened.
    Who is choosing to mention only half of what really happened?

    2007-2008
    Mao won every competition she entered except the GPF (where she placed second) that's five out of six competition that she won, where as yuna only won three competitions in the same season and those where in the GP and GPF, which clearly shows that Mao was the most dominating skater that season
    Mao attended 4cc where she was the only contender there(please remember that Yuna withdrew due to injuries), a snoozefest(sorry for the contestants at 4cc), if you will. Mao attended Japanese Nationals which is, Nationals! In this season, Yuna competed at four events. So it's 4 out of 5 ISU sanctioned competitions vs 3 out of 4 ones. Mao was the most dominating skater?

    2008-2009
    Mao won 4 competitions and a silver and a bronze and yuna also won 4 competition and a silver (they both dominated)
    Why four wins? Nationals, really? So it becomes three wins out of six ISU sanctioned competition which includes World Championships where she didn't even make the podium. Yuna competed in five competitions that season, therefore, it would be 3 out of 6 vs 4 out of 5. Not to mention how Yuna won those competitions. Both dominated?

    2009-2010
    Mao won Nationals, 4CC, and Worlds, yuna won the Olympics and in the Granprix circuit (both winning two each of the most important competitions)
    Again, why keep including Nationals? And again, she was the only contender at 4cc, another snoozefest(again, sorry). Yuna was dominant without any doubt.

    overall results:
    Mao Asada won 6 big competition ( GPF twice, 4CC Twice, Worlds twice)
    Yuna Kim won 6 big competitions (3 GPF, 4CC once, Worlds once, OL once)
    If you're so eager to only look at those numbers, how about comparing the number of times Yuna and Mao made the podium out of all the competition they entered in that quadrennial? I'd also dig into quality of those wins if I want to make it convincing that a skater dominated a particular season. How about setting up a poll for each season in the Voting Booth? People will give their assessment more than enough. IMO that'll ease your mind and settle things.

    And is it me or are you intentionally not capitalizing Yuna's name? Throughout this thread, you don't capitalize Yuna's name but others' you do capitalize.


    P.S: My Yuna uber fire just kept pouring out I couldn't help it. I hate it when I do that, it takes up all of my energy and I know that this kind of "quarrel" makes people annoyed so very much. Sorry for making it such a fuss.
    Last edited by l'etoile; 10-12-2012 at 11:44 AM.

  9. #54
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    Can we not turn this into a Yuna vs Mao debate?

    I don't know what Mao's chances are to be Olympic Champion in 2014, however, I do hope that she has the skate of her life.

  10. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by chloepoco View Post
    Can we not turn this into a Yuna vs Mao debate?

    I don't know what Mao's chances are to be Olympic Champion in 2014, however, I do hope that she has the skate of her life.
    Me too......but I wish that for alot of them.

    But Mao is very special with skills and abilities above and beyond the current scoring system.

  11. #56
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    Just for fun lets use some of Mary01's logic on past skaters though:

    1994-1995 pairs- Eltsova & Bushkov won 4 competitions that year, 3 grand prix events, their Nationals, more than anyone else, so were the dominant pair this year despite placing 4th at Europeans and Worlds.

    1996-1997 ladies: Irina Slutskaya won 5 competitions (3 grand prix events, her Nationals, Europeans). So she was the dominant skater this year over Tara Lipinski who won only 3 (Nationals, GP final, Worlds), or Kwan (2 grand prix events).


    LOL at someone even trying to argue Mao as dominant in 08-09 when she went 1-3 vs Joannie Rochette and didnt even medal at Worlds, and compare that to Yu Na who won all her events but one. Classic.
    Last edited by Tonichelle; 10-12-2012 at 03:13 PM. Reason: Do NOT attack other posters. If you have a genuine concern use the report post function.

  12. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by miki88 View Post
    Let's see how the season goes first. Also, I don't think we should underestimate Lipnitskaya's chances. She has the jumps and there is time for her PCS to improve. Also, if she emerges as a contender she will have the backing of the host country.
    She is quite artistic for her age I find. She reminds me of a young Sasha Cohen except with way better jumps and edges. Her PCS are already better than the other young Russians, only Sotnikova comes close but without near the jumps anymore.

  13. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    She is quite artistic for her age I find. She reminds me of a young Sasha Cohen except with way better jumps and edges. Her PCS are already better than the other young Russians, only Sotnikova comes close but without near the jumps anymore.
    I have seen Sasha at 15 but Julia is what - only 14?

    Even so I don't see Julia anywhere near as interesting a skater to watch yet. That could change - but for now I see little in Julia's skating that equals the exquisite stylings Sasha had at such a young age.

    IMO Sasha was already an artist at 15 and Julia is skating through the music with little or no projection to the audience.

    To be honest I find Julia's skating to be a perfect example of "JUNIOR SKATER."

    That could change and I hope it does. She has many nice qualities - but commanding the ice is not one of them yet.

    Here is Sasha at 15..........notice her jumps actually get off the ice

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-loMk4Zrko
    Last edited by janetfan; 10-12-2012 at 03:10 PM.

  14. #59
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    I dont feel Sasha was a true artist at 15. She was already very polished, had beautiful lines, great flexability, and a certain elegance, but she often skated through the music too. Just look at her Carmen in 2002 (now age 17) which was just horrible as far as choreography and interpretation. She only became a true artist once she went to Tarasova and in the ensuing years.

  15. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by janetfan View Post
    I have seen Sasha at 15 but Julia is what - only 14?

    Even so I don't see Julia anywhere near as interesting a skater to watch yet. That could change - but for now I see little in Julia's skating that equals the exquisite stylings Sasha had at such a young age.

    IMO Sasha was already an artist at 15 and Julia is skating through the music with little or no projection to the audience.

    To be honest I find Julia's skating to be a perfect example of "JUNIOR SKATER."

    That could change and I hope it does. She has many nice qualities - but commanding the ice is not one of them yet.

    Here is Sasha at 15..........notice her jumps actually get off the ice

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-loMk4Zrko
    I agree with your assessment of Julia vs Sasha, but Julia has something Sasha didn't have - consistency and nerves of steel. The look in her eyes when she takes the ice says she came to skate well, she always looks calm and focused. My only concern is that she might start growing into a woman right before the Olympics and she won't have enough time to adjust.

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