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Thread: What are Mao Asada's chances of becoming Olympic Champion in 2014?

  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Please, Kim had atleast 3 significant errors over the two programs, Ando had only 1. In the short Kim didnt do her intended 3/3, practically fell on her triple lutz and still beat a clean Ando. Ando's LP was cleverly constructed to get a very high TES base value, and Kim still had more mistakes, and higher GOE on her successful elements. In general Kim's overall performances were about 55% of her Vancouver level and 70% of her normal pre Vancouver level. That same year Miki was beating Asada even when she skated very well with the triple axel (eg- Nationals and Four Continents).
    Do I understand correctly that you consider Yuna's performance in 2011 Worlds as "bombing"? And yes, I am aware that Miki beat Mao that season, but this fact has nothing to do with what I said. I hope she will improve and skate better than she did 2 years ago. This means fix under-rotations and stop popping the jumps. If she starts doing that, she won't need 3A, and I believe this goal is within her reach.

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    Quote Originally Posted by babayaga View Post
    Do I understand correctly that you consider Yuna's performance in 2011 Worlds as "bombing"?
    Considering she has only done about 2 competitions worse since turning senior at most, yes I would say she bombed. Even if you disagree she showed up in crummy shape and her performance level was way way below her norm even in addition to all the mistakes she made, so unless you just presume she will only train a week before Worlds like she did then, the competition has no real bearing. Also since you were oddly using that as some reference to what Mao without her triple axel could beat Yu Na with, the fact the same Miki Ando a 45% Kim very nearly beat was dominating Asada all season even skating well with her triple axels has everything to do with whatever point you are trying to make by that. It is much easier for Kim to improve on her hideous (for her standards) 2011 Worlds level than Asada to improve so much to score better without triple axels then even the times she skated reasonably well with them.

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    An opinion about Yu-Na's perforamnce level is totally objective i.e. I reckon her Homage to Korea at 2011 Worlds was superior to any FS she'd ever skated before in terms of performance level, projection, expressing emotion and theme of the program.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Considering she has only done about 2 competitions worse since turning senior at most, yes I would say she bombed. Even if you disagree she showed up in crummy shape and her performance level was way way below her norm even in addition to all the mistakes she made, so unless you just presume she will only train a week before Worlds like she did then, the competition has no real bearing. Also since you were oddly using that as some reference to what Mao without her triple axel could beat Yu Na with, the fact the same Miki Ando a 45% Kim very nearly beat was dominating Asada all season even skating well with her triple axels has everything to do with whatever point you are trying to make by that. It is much easier for Kim to improve on her hideous (for her standards) 2011 Worlds level than Asada to improve so much to score better without triple axels then even the times she skated reasonably well with them.
    I'll explain. As I mentioned in my first post in this thread I will consider Kim the favorite to win in 2014 if she decides to participate. If she skates clean, she wins. However, I do not agree that she has to completely bomb in order for Mao to beat her, a couple of mistakes would do (if Asada is clean). And I do not consider her skate at 2011 Worlds terrible at all and I don't think she was in bad shape. She and her coach repeatedly said she was in a perfect condition before the competition and Yuna looked very well-trained in practices.
    Anyway, I do not want to turn this into Yuna/Mao thread too. Luckily there will be many more than these two fighting for the gold this time. This means that if either one makes mistakes not only they won't win, but can end up off the podium altogether. And I agree with you that it's an uphill battle for Mao at this point but I believe she's got the talent to get there.

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    I think it would be quite difficult for Mao to win in 2014, simply because it's tougher for older skaters, and that includes Yuna. 23 is the beginning of a young woman's life, but it's pretty much the end for female skaters, esp. if their technique in jumps is unsound as Mao's is on certain important jumps like the lutz and axel ( she lacks scale on the axel compared to her earlier years and downgrades will be dinged even harsher this time). Skaters who won worlds and olympics at advanced years like Ando, Kostner, and Arakawa are the exception, but what they all had in common was excellent basic technique in their jumps. In fact, I think Gold has a better chance of medalling than Mao. And despite their struggles, Adelina and Liza still have better chance than Mao- being younger, being Russian, and knowing only CoP their whole lives. There will be no fondness or sentimentality in Sochi for any past champion imo- it will be a freeforall and only the toughest skater will be crowned, favorites be damned.

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    If Liza keeps improving her presentation she has a chance, and Julia definitely has a chance if she survives puberty well and keeps maturing. Adelina is a major long shot IMO. She is already not the jumper she used to be. If I were to guess now I would even predict a team of Julia, Liza, and Alena Leonova, and no Adelina, but we will see, there will probably be 5 or more with a shot to make the Russian team with possibly only 1 skater (whoever does best between now and then) a lock before Nationals.

    I would like to see Mao win in 2014 in a sense but I think it is a long shot at best. I would give Yu Na and Julia better chances, and Wagner, Kostner, and Liza IF she keeps improving her presentation about the same odds.

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    I dunno, take a look at this:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSM4o5nHboc

    Only a few weeks ago- her 3t looks pretty big (though wonder what happened to her 3lz-3lo), so does her flip (or is it a lutz, not sure with that entry and her slight flutzing). But I'm not sure she'll be getting a 3a any time soon (maybe never). Imo, Gold has a better chance of getting a 3a.
    But Adelina still has dynamic qualites, great flexibility, her footwork may be the strongest and most dynamic of all the senior ladies, she's still quite young, and perhaps in need of better programs. She's def. not out of the picture yet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    If Liza keeps improving her presentation she has a chance, and Julia definitely has a chance if she survives puberty well and keeps maturing. Adelina is a major long shot IMO. She is already not the jumper she used to be. If I were to guess now I would even predict a team of Julia, Liza, and Alena Leonova, and no Adelina, but we will see, there will probably be 5 or more with a shot to make the Russian team with possibly only 1 skater (whoever does best between now and then) a lock before Nationals.

    I would like to see Mao win in 2014 in a sense but I think it is a long shot at best. I would give Yu Na and Julia better chances, and Wagner, Kostner, and Liza IF she keeps improving her presentation about the same odds.
    We might be assuming Russia can hold on to three spots; things don't look all that great. Their ladies are facing puberty for the most part and it isn't really pretty. This could be a huge break and allow the US to regain their superiority and the three lady spots. USA could be the power house they once were but I do admit it probably will be only one of them can survive - Russia or the USA. The success of one probably or could affect the success of the other for three ladies spots.

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    ^ you're saying if Tuk, Julia or Adelina will not be successful after Olympics , figure skating in Russia will die down ?

    Quote Originally Posted by guanchi View Post
    I think it would be quite difficult for Mao to win in 2014, simply because it's tougher for older skaters, and that includes Yuna. 23 is the beginning of a young woman's life, but it's pretty much the end for female skaters, esp. if their technique in jumps is unsound as Mao's is on certain important jumps like the lutz and axel ( she lacks scale on the axel compared to her earlier years and downgrades will be dinged even harsher this time). Skaters who won worlds and olympics at advanced years like Ando, Kostner, and Arakawa are the exception, but what they all had in common was excellent basic technique in their jumps. In fact, I think Gold has a better chance of medalling than Mao. And despite their struggles, Adelina and Liza still have better chance than Mao- being younger, being Russian, and knowing only CoP their whole lives. There will be no fondness or sentimentality in Sochi for any past champion imo- it will be a freeforall and only the toughest skater will be crowned, favorites be damned.
    I beg to differ there have been plenty of skaters in their mid or late 20's still getting successful, doesn't necessarily mean good technique
    Akiko, Maria , Shizuka even Carolina have been successful

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    Irina Slutskaya at the age of 26 and 27 went undefeated for two and a half season being rock solid on her jumps and having a night off at only one competition (unfortunately the most important one).

    Years ago after her win in Torino Shizuka still nails triple-triples and does all the features for spins and bullets for higher GOE.

    Carolina, Maria and Akiko have been already mentioned. Advanced age doesn't really count that much if you train properly. It's just that we don't see a lot of successful "old" skaters simply because they usually retire if they accomplish their goals at a young age. Shizuka and Akiko had been waiting for years before their moment came.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bartek View Post
    An opinion about Yu-Na's perforamnce level is totally objective i.e. I reckon her Homage to Korea at 2011 Worlds was superior to any FS she'd ever skated before in terms of performance level, projection, expressing emotion and theme of the program.
    I very much agree with this opinion, Bartek. I loved Yu-na Kim's programs at 2011 Worlds and felt a whole different level of maturity and emotional power in her skating. There were definitely some problems/omissions with the jumps, but I certainly don't see her as "bombing" at 2011 Worlds. As proved by her silver medal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by eyria View Post
    I very much agree with this opinion, Bartek. I loved Yu-na Kim's programs at 2011 Worlds and felt a whole different level of maturity and emotional power in her skating. There were definitely some problems/omissions with the jumps, but I certainly don't see her as "bombing" at 2011 Worlds. As proved by her silver medal.
    Yu Na from Vancouver would have won the 2010 Worlds by about 40 points, and Yu Na from virtually every competition the 3 years preceding Vancouver would have won the 2010 Worlds by over 20 points. A silver medal in such a poor Worlds as proved by an only 5 triple Ando who can do absolutely NOTHING but jump winning those Worlds.

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    ^ Mao scored 197,58 points at 2010 Worlds. When you look at Yu-Na's results from 3 years preceding Vancouver you see that she scored more than that only twice (2009 Worlds and 2009 TEB) and you're claiming she would've won 2010 Worlds by over 20 points. That's ridiculous.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    If I were to guess now I would even predict a team of Julia, Liza, and Alena Leonova, and no Adelina, but we will see, there will probably be 5 or more with a shot to make the Russian team with possibly only 1 skater (whoever does best between now and then) a lock before Nationals.

    .
    I don't think the Russian are going to leave Adelina off the National team, when she usually wins Russian Nationals over Liza, Leonova and Julia.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    ^ you're saying if Tuk, Julia or Adelina will not be successful after Olympics , figure skating in Russia will die down ?
    successful
    I didn't get that from the comments.

    Russia losing three spots with leonova and just one non makarova skater seems unlikely. Unless you think that leonova will miss the top 10 as well as tuktamisheva and or sotnikova will also miss the top 10.

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