It depends on a lot of things. If one or more of the top ladies are doing consistent triple-triples, it will be hard for Mao (or anyone else) to win. But COP has made skating so unpredictable. Clean programs are rarity. There is so much potential for skaters to make mistakes that Mao can't be counted out, if she is the one skater to skate two clean programs. She needs to forget about the triple axel. She can do just as well with a double axel-triple toe as she can with her under-rotated or two-footed triple axel.