Any realistic attempt to figure out Mao's chances - or other skaters - depends alot on who is working the tech panel as well as the judges.
Too much still depends on where events are held.....
Just look at Finlandia for an example. Then compare that to what we will see at the GP. Then we will see Euros and 4CC judged totally differently and Worlds again could seem different. Yet it is the same sport with the same system......
But you can bet Sochi will have some amazingly high scores even if it is poorly skated..
The judging system doesn't matter nearly as much as who is in charge of it. In case nobody noticed it's mostly the same folks who were told to cleanup their act or be banned from the Olympics.
Making something more secretive is not to be confused with making it more fair...or God forbid...more accurate.
Last edited by janetfan; 10-13-2012 at 12:42 PM.
But ando in 2010 was still making a huge error by doing 3 lz 3 loop that she always ured and the rules were so strict that loop was was worth 2 loop plus you add the negative goe it was a mistake. She got smarter and just did 3 lz 2 loop plus did five jumps just when the bonus started. 2011 world ando was much smarter than 2010 Olympic ando.
Yeah she wasn't going to do that much better at the Olympics. Top 3 was all settled with them mostly getting 8's in pcs and 30+ in that area but she was much smarter in Moscow about points and everything. She learned and morozov learned from vancouver. Her 2011 win was done in a way that may not have been inspiring but worked. Yuna with the single flip after he 3/3 cost her the win.
The scores will be laughably obscene.
And figure skating will take another big step backwards.
Not sure if the sport can withstand the greatness of Patrick's consistently sloppy skating.
But there is always snowboarding for N. American fans that are more into real spot
Last edited by janetfan; 10-13-2012 at 04:26 PM.
not as bad you might think.
she is still in the running.
kinda of agree with janetfan.
unforunately skating community doesn't realize they are taking a step backward ever time they cheat, overlook, manipulate, finesse a score for their favorite instead of true score, or push a skater just because of something, someone, federation and they a mildly okay at best,( i can think of a few current U.S. ladies they fit that bill, ).
they want to win, not who skates well,. They have to look at everyones mistakes regardless and not just the ones they don't want up on top. all of them
it doesn't help the big 4 (u.s., canada, japan, russia, ) throws their weight around too much to get what they want and don't help out the lesser countries that are starting out. (doesn't help they want to cut down from 24-18 and state they are growing when in fact they are really shrinking - gp event skaters from 12-10 and to 8 in pairs, & dance. how is that growing
Back to the post title. Mao will win if she skates the best. The judges are willing to give her the marks but she has to land those jumps and skate with conviction. Over the last few yearsi have seen the joy and conviction wane. Of course, if YUNA can match her well she might have a problem but this is not a situation where judges are hostile to Mao.
Miki from 2011 Worlds was much better skater than Miki from Vancouver. Her spins improved tremendously and she used the system a lot better. Besides, her short program was simply beautiful.
I agree about Miki, though.
This question cannot be answered without a lot of tenuous assumptions about how Asada versus the rest of the field will skate from here on to Sochi. Had anyone asked the same questions about Vancouver in 2008, Mao would have been the number #1 favorite to win. She was the World Champion and far more heavily favored by the judges at the time.
If we assume she continuous to improve and skates clean in Sochi...
If we assume the Russian prodigies do not live up to their promise...
If we assume her other potential senior rivals Carolina, Ando, Kim, etc. don't skate their best, retire or withdraw...
If we assume no new rules will be introduced next year that could hurt her chances...
If we assume she sustains no major injury between now and Sochi...
etc. You get the idea. Then her chances of winning are good. There's one thing she's got going for her, she does have the fiery motivation to win at Sochi. Her other older rivals like Carolina Kostner or Yuna Kim may not be so committed, especially Yuna, considering they already got what they wanted (World titles and Olympic gold).
You really should ask this question after this season's World Championship. There's always been a strong correlation between the Olympic champion and pre-Olympics World champion, even in the post-figures 6.0 era and in the CoP era (Michelle Kwan notwithstanding). Even in the last two decades, that has held true for Yamaguchi, Baiul, Lipinski, and Kim (4 out 6 Olympics since the elimination of figures). I expect this season's World Champ will have the strongest chance of winning Sochi if she skates relatively clean.