How many skaters have legitimate chances at 2014 Olympic Gold as it looks now. | Golden Skate

How many skaters have legitimate chances at 2014 Olympic Gold as it looks now.

pangtongfan

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Jun 16, 2010
How many skaters have legitimate chances at 2014 Olympic Gold as it looks now.

I was just thinking that right now it is looking like more skaters than any other Olympics in history will have a legitimate chance of the gold medal. Right now I would Ashley Wagner, Gracie Gold, Adelina Sotnikova, Yu Na Kim, Julia Lipnitskaia, Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, Mao Asada, Caroline Kostner, all have a chance at the gold at next years Olympics. Then I would say additional skaters who have no chance at the gold but a chance at a medal would be Akiko Suzuki, whoever the #3 Japanese is (Murakami, Imai, maybe in an unlikely event Ando), possibly even the #3 American, Korpi, Kexin, if she makes the Russian team Leonova, but that would drop the # of gold contenders to only 7 as she will bump off one of them. So basically as many as 8 gold contenders, and as many as 13 medal contenders. It is an interesting contrast to past Olympics:

1980:

Gold contenders- Poetzsch, Fratianne, Lurz. (3)
Medal/non gold contenders- Watanabe, Marie Allen, Biellmann. (6)


1984:

Gold contenders- Sumners, Witt. (2)
Medal/non gold contenders- Zayak, Chin, Kondrashova, Ivanova, Voderezova, Leistner, Rueben. (9)


1988:

Gold contenders- Thomas, Witt, Manley. (3)
Medal/non gold contenders- Ivanova, Trenary, Kadavy. (6)


1992:

Gold contenders- Yamaguchi, Ito, Harding. (3)
Medal/non gold contenders- Bonaly, Kerrigan. (5)


1994:

Gold contenders- Kerrigan, Bauil, Bonaly. (3)
Medal/non gold contenders- Sato, Chen, Chouinard. (6)


1998:

Gold contenders- Kwan, Lipinski. (2)
Medal/non gold contenders- Butyrskaya, Chen, Slutskaya, Bobek, Hubert, Gusmeroli, Szewcenko. (9, really 8 since Tanja withdrew)


2002:

Gold contenders- Kwan, Slutskaya, Hughes. (3)
Medal/non gold contenders- Cohen, Butyrskaya. (5)


2006:

Gold contenders- Slutskaya, Arakawa, Cohen. (3)
Medal/non gold contenders- Suguri, Kwan, Kostner, Meissner. (7, really 6 since Kwan withdrew)


2010:

Gold contenders- Kim. (1)
Medal/non gold contenders- Rochette, Asada, Ando. (4)
 
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gmyers

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Mar 6, 2010
Asada may not have been on Yuna's level but she was certainly on a higher level than ando or rochette! I think she was on the gold level.

All other years seem more right.

2012 sotnikova can't beat Osmond and Gao! You think that is like Mao being a non medalist at 2009 worlds or not medaling at 2009 cup of Russia??

There does seem to be a lot if good contenders but some have to show a senior win ability and lipnitskaia won over korpi but needs more like a gp as well as gold and this season too. I doubt 2014 gold medalist won't win anything until the 2013-2014 season!!
 

sky_fly20

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Nov 20, 2011
Kim Yuna
Julia, Ashley, Mao, Liza, Gracie and maybe Carolina
 
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Joined
Mar 11, 2011
So many, which is to tell we have incredibly deep field ib both singles disciplines. It's really amazing.
 

FSGMT

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Sep 10, 2012
The Ladies field will be SO exciting in Sochi!
But I think that, in 2010, Japanese fans still considered the Olympic gold a Mao vs Yu-Na battle, even if we knew that Yu-Na was far better than Mao, especially considering the 2009-2010 results before Olys...
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2009
Japanese fans weren't the only ones. I thought so, too, and I'm assuming a lot of other people did as well. I remember seeing a poster here say that YuNa and Mao were an entire different level of skater from everyone else, and I remember agreeing. Both were light-years ahead of the rest of the world in terms of quality. Add to that the slipperiness of ice and the uncertainty of life, and either of these stellar ladies could have won if certain conditions had been different. As it was, YuNa unquestionably dominated in Vancouver, and no one else has caught up to her in the intervening years.
 

drivingmissdaisy

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Feb 17, 2010
The Ladies field will be SO exciting in Sochi!
But I think that, in 2010, Japanese fans still considered the Olympic gold a Mao vs Yu-Na battle, even if we knew that Yu-Na was far better than Mao, especially considering the 2009-2010 results before Olys...

Yuna was far better but I think it's fair to say Mao was a legitimate contender for gold. It's not common for someone to skate the two best programs of their career at the Olympics, which is what Yuna accomplished.
 

pangtongfan

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Jun 16, 2010
Japanese fans weren't the only ones. I thought so, too, and I'm assuming a lot of other people did as well. I remember seeing a poster here say that YuNa and Mao were an entire different level of skater from everyone else, and I remember agreeing. Both were light-years ahead of the rest of the world in terms of quality. Add to that the slipperiness of ice and the uncertainty of life, and either of these stellar ladies could have won if certain conditions had been different. As it was, YuNa unquestionably dominated in Vancouver, and no one else has caught up to her in the intervening years.

I thought Asada and Rochette were neck and neck before Vancouver, and that is exactly how it turned out. Asada did a clean short with a squeeky clean triple axel combo and ended up only 2 points ahead of Rochette and her triple-double, and both made mistakes in the long, Asada did her 2 triple axels, and barely stayed ahead of Rochette. Actually based on their skating coming into the Games I thought Rochette was more likely to get the silver than Asada, Asada raised her game up and skated better than she did most of the season, and still needed a couple carless errors from Rochette in the long to get the silver. Had Joannie's Mom not died before the Games I think she would have skated a bit better and been 2nd to be honest.

I never thought Kim could lose the Gold unless she bombed. I always viewed it as more a coronation than competition for her.
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2009
Yuna was far better but I think it's fair to say Mao was a legitimate contender for gold. It's not common for someone to skate the two best programs of their career at the Olympics, which is what Yuna accomplished.

That's exactly it, DrivingMissDaisy. A lot of splendid skaters have gone into the Olympics and skated adequately but not up to their potential. The pressure of that venue must be almost unbearable. Some of these skaters have even lucked out and won, because everyone else did even worse. But in Vancouver, YuNa really laid it down. No one could have beaten her that night--possibly no woman who has ever skated. As a viewer, I'll always be grateful to her for making the Olympic experience so wonderful for skating fans (not just her fans!). Often the Olympics can be a letdown to watch because skaters pull back or have a bad night or whatever, but YuNa left nothing undone. The great thing is that all the other final women skaters also pulled it out and skated magnificently, so the entire evening was an awesome experience for viewers (in the stadium and onscreen). How often does that happen? As I see it, there were no losers that night, and I can only hope for that kind of quality in Sochi.
 

Jammers

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Nov 4, 2010
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I'm afraid that because everyone skated so well in the final group which was probably the best collective skating ever in an Olympic games for the women that Sochi is going to be more like 1992. A splatfest.
 

FlattFan

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Jan 4, 2010
I wouldn't mind reliving 1992 if there's a Midori Ito moment in 2014 Sochi. Her unplanned second triple axel in the long program made it more memorable than anything in 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, and 2010.
In 2014, that would be a really well liked lady going for a quad in the last minute of the LP to put herself on the podium.
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2009
Flattfan, that's a lovely thought. Wouldn't it be wonderful to see such spirit and grit at Sochi?

I think Mao's three triple Axels in 2010 had some of that determination, and I was thrilled to see her go for them--and succeed.
 

ImaginaryPogue

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Jun 3, 2009
2014
Men: Chan, Hanyu and Takahashi

Ladies: Tuktamisheva, Lipnitskaia, Sotnikova, Wagner, Asada, Suzuki, Kim

Pairs: Volosozhar/Trankov, Savchenko/Szolkowy

Dance: Davis/White, Virtue/Moir

2010 Ladies: I think there's a bit of revisionism here, but an interesting type.

Heading into the season, it was absolutely Kim vs Asada. Yeah: Asada fell off the podium at Worlds, but she posted two massive scores at the World Team Trophy (about six points shy of what Kim posted at Worlds). She had peaked too late; heading into the Vancouver season she was still the last person to have beaten Kim (GPF 08/09). But then TEB happened. TEB was an epic event this season: two world champions (Kim, Asada), another world medalist (Kostner), another European medalist (Korpi). And Kim utterly destroyed Asada. It was a bigger victory than Worlds was. Asada barely made the top five at CoR. She was down and out. Meanwhile, Miki Ando was having a resurgent season, winning both her GPs. Suzuki won her first GP gold at CoC. It was a deep field, and while Asada wasn't going to be left off the team or anything, she wasn't proving to be OGM material at this point either.

But the thing was, Kim wasn't perfect this season at all. She had the wierd moment with the flip in France. Her Skate America LP fell apart. She went from a 30+ point victory in France over Asada to barely beating Ando at the GPF. The pressure of the season was getting to her. Let's not forget Rochette, who had only a slightly better first half to her season than Asada, but posting scores in China and the GPF that wouldn't get her anywhere near the podium. Yes, she had that epic Nationals long program - a clean, huge seven triple skate. But she also had the weight of expectations and her personal grief. The season didn't promise much.

So that's partially why the Olympics Ladies event was such a thriller. It's rare to have our expectations so thoroughly upended like that. It was the climax of a four year long narrative (the rise of the Asian ladies; Canada with a true medal contender, the decline of the Americans - no third spot for the first time ever). It was both culmination of an amazing four years (will Kim be this good again?) and the suggestion of four more exceptional ones (even if some of the ladies: Nagasu, Makarova didn't quite live up to our hopes). The other reason: well the top EIGHT personal bests were scored here. The top twelve long programs were completely without falls. We got class, courage, and conviction from this group of ladies. And from Kim we merely got perfection. The Eurosport commentators said "Pressure? What pressure? She doesn't feel pressure." But that's not true. This wasn't extraordinary because she didn't feel pressure. This was extraordinary because she rose to meet it. It was truly a privilege to watch these performances.
 

Reginald

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Jan 28, 2011
Julia Lipnitskaya, Caroline Zhang, Gracie Gold, Mirai Nagasu, Rachel Flatt, Mao Asada, Yu-Na Kim, and many more.

This is just a personal wishlist, but you never know what will happen.
 

guanchi

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Mar 31, 2012
No doubt 2010 was incredible.
Just comparing ptfan's great 8 hopefuls to, imo, the best 8 in Vancouver, I wonder which group is stronger.
2010- Yuna, Mao, Joannie, Miki, Laura, Mirai, Akiko, Carolina (yep, she bombed, but I'm considering past and potential best quality, not just placement- sorry Rachael)
2014- Yuna, Mao, Ashley, Adelina, Elizaveta, Julia, Gracie, Carolina.
We have big jumpers in Adelina and Gracie, and if her summer show with that big delayed lutz is one indication, Yuna still can do it. Liza has excellent technique, and will Julia keep her tech thru her growth, I don't know. That leaves the remaining 3, and I'm not sure they have the firepower as the above mentioned. Mao may still have issues, Ashley still doesn't have a 3-3, and Caro may have already peaked.
In some ways, 2010 may always be stronger. Yuna, then, could jump with anyone today, and Miki's jumping has always been solid- she's prolly the most consistent triple jumper in history. Caro bombed but she could still do hard triple combos back then, Laura had great speed and one of the best 3t-3t's of all time, Mao did 3 triple axels- unprecedented. Joannie has all 5 triples with no edge issues, and Mirai had no fear and her head on straight back then- she was capable of 3lz-3t, and had a big 2a-3t. Akiko always entertains, and has blazing footwork- she actually improved as her 2012 worlds placement showed.
In sum, I don't think 2014 will show anything that we haven't seen before in 2010. In fact, it might be worse.
 

Skater Boy

Record Breaker
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Feb 24, 2012
I thought Asada and Rochette were neck and neck before Vancouver, and that is exactly how it turned out. Asada did a clean short with a squeeky clean triple axel combo and ended up only 2 points ahead of Rochette and her triple-double, and both made mistakes in the long, Asada did her 2 triple axels, and barely stayed ahead of Rochette. Actually based on their skating coming into the Games I thought Rochette was more likely to get the silver than Asada, Asada raised her game up and skated better than she did most of the season, and still needed a couple carless errors from Rochette in the long to get the silver. Had Joannie's Mom not died before the Games I think she would have skated a bit better and been 2nd to be honest.

I never thought Kim could lose the Gold unless she bombed. I always viewed it as more a coronation than competition for her.

Under the circumstances I think Rochette was thrilled with bronze. And her mother died during the Games so that was really tough. LOok at Mao and how she is still grieving.
 

janetfan

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May 15, 2009
For gosh sakes...Yuna won the LP at Vancouver and Mirai was easily the second best LP.
Like Yuna, Mira skated a flawless LP.

It was US Skating that ruined Mirai's chances for a medal by sending Flatt to Vancouver as the US champion.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
People honestly think Gracie can win the OGM? No offense to Gracie but her PCS will need to improve a lot between now and then for her to have a hope at that. I do think a medal is possible, but I highly doubt the gold, sure her jumps are terrific but the rest of her skating is just okay right now.

As for Adelina, while with clean skating she would be a big threat, the way she's been skating recently has allowed skaters like Gold, Osmond, and Gao beat her, so if she doesn't start to show more consistency, she could potentially miss out on even making the Olympic or World team. The Polinas are both very strong technical skaters, there seem to be new good skaters every week, and if Makarova ever manages to land her jumps, she will get competitive PCS at Russian Nationals and could wind up on the podium.
 
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janetfan

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May 15, 2009
People honestly think Gracie can win the OGM? No offense to Gracie but her PCS will need to improve a lot between now and then for her to have a hope at that. I do think a medal is possible, but I highly doubt the gold, sure her jumps are terrific but the rest of her skating is just okay right now.

.

Well that is what this season is about....Sochi is not in a few months but a year and a few months

BTW....you have been quiet about Christina......

I remember when we were the only two posters at GS who saw something special in her skating.
I still do....what about you?
 
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