How many skaters have legitimate chances at 2014 Olympic Gold as it looks now.

[guanchi]

No doubt 2010 was incredible.
Just comparing ptfan's great 8 hopefuls to, imo, the best 8 in Vancouver, I wonder which group is stronger.
2010- Yuna, Mao, Joannie, Miki, Laura, Mirai, Akiko, Carolina (yep, she bombed, but I'm considering past and potential best quality, not just placement- sorry Rachael)
2014- Yuna, Mao, Ashley, Adelina, Elizaveta, Julia, Gracie, Carolina.
We have big jumpers in Adelina and Gracie, and if her summer show with that big delayed lutz is one indication, Yuna still can do it. Liza has excellent technique, and will Julia keep her tech thru her growth, I don't know. That leaves the remaining 3, and I'm not sure they have the firepower as the above mentioned. Mao may still have issues, Ashley still doesn't have a 3-3, and Caro may have already peaked.
In some ways, 2010 may always be stronger. Yuna, then, could jump with anyone today, and Miki's jumping has always been solid- she's prolly the most consistent triple jumper in history. Caro bombed but she could still do hard triple combos back then, Laura had great speed and one of the best 3t-3t's of all time, Mao did 3 triple axels- unprecedented. Joannie has all 5 triples with no edge issues, and Mirai had no fear and her head on straight back then- she was capable of 3lz-3t, and had a big 2a-3t. Akiko always entertains, and has blazing footwork- she actually improved as her 2012 worlds placement showed.
In sum, I don't think 2014 will show anything that we haven't seen before in 2010. In fact, it might be worse.

[Skater Boy]

I thought Asada and Rochette were neck and neck before Vancouver, and that is exactly how it turned out. Asada did a clean short with a squeeky clean triple axel combo and ended up only 2 points ahead of Rochette and her triple-double, and both made mistakes in the long, Asada did her 2 triple axels, and barely stayed ahead of Rochette. Actually based on their skating coming into the Games I thought Rochette was more likely to get the silver than Asada, Asada raised her game up and skated better than she did most of the season, and still needed a couple carless errors from Rochette in the long to get the silver. Had Joannie's Mom not died before the Games I think she would have skated a bit better and been 2nd to be honest.

I never thought Kim could lose the Gold unless she bombed. I always viewed it as more a coronation than competition for her.

Under the circumstances I think Rochette was thrilled with bronze. And her mother died during the Games so that was really tough. LOok at Mao and how she is still grieving.

[janetfan]

For gosh sakes...Yuna won the LP at Vancouver and Mirai was easily the second best LP.
Like Yuna, Mira skated a flawless LP.

It was US Skating that ruined Mirai's chances for a medal by sending Flatt to Vancouver as the US champion.

[silverlake22]

People honestly think Gracie can win the OGM? No offense to Gracie but her PCS will need to improve a lot between now and then for her to have a hope at that. I do think a medal is possible, but I highly doubt the gold, sure her jumps are terrific but the rest of her skating is just okay right now.

As for Adelina, while with clean skating she would be a big threat, the way she's been skating recently has allowed skaters like Gold, Osmond, and Gao beat her, so if she doesn't start to show more consistency, she could potentially miss out on even making the Olympic or World team. The Polinas are both very strong technical skaters, there seem to be new good skaters every week, and if Makarova ever manages to land her jumps, she will get competitive PCS at Russian Nationals and could wind up on the podium.

[janetfan]

People honestly think Gracie can win the OGM? No offense to Gracie but her PCS will need to improve a lot between now and then for her to have a hope at that. I do think a medal is possible, but I highly doubt the gold, sure her jumps are terrific but the rest of her skating is just okay right now.

.

Well that is what this season is about....Sochi is not in a few months but a year and a few months

BTW....you have been quiet about Christina......

I remember when we were the only two posters at GS who saw something special in her skating.
I still do....what about you?

[silverlake22]

Well that is what this season is about....Sochi is not in a few months but a year and a few months

BTW....you have been quiet about Christina......

I remember when we were the only two posters at GS who saw something special in her skating.
I still do....what about you?

THRILLED for Christina and knew she was capable of skates and scores like she had at SA all along. That being said, I don't consider her a contender for Olympic good, and consider her to be comparable, if not superior, to Gracie Gold when she skates like she did at SA. Her jumps and spins are just as good as Gracie's and her artistry/PCS are a little better IMO. I'd love to see her on the Olympic team in 2014 and think she definitely has a realistic shot if the team has 3 spots. I think a medal at Worlds or the Olympics would be a stretch for her though, which is why I'm surprised people think Gracie and Adelina are contenders for the gold there.

[sky_fly20]

People honestly think Gracie can win the OGM? No offense to Gracie but her PCS will need to improve a lot between now and then for her to have a hope at that. I do think a medal is possible, but I highly doubt the gold, sure her jumps are terrific but the rest of her skating is just okay right now.

As for Adelina, while with clean skating she would be a big threat, the way she's been skating recently has allowed skaters like Gold, Osmond, and Gao beat her, so if she doesn't start to show more consistency, she could potentially miss out on even making the Olympic or World team. The Polinas are both very strong technical skaters, there seem to be new good skaters every week, and if Makarova ever manages to land her jumps, she will get competitive PCS at Russian Nationals and could wind up on the podium.

while I agree Adelina will be a non factor until she is 25-28 years old, girl cannot make 2 clean skates to save her life yet
the Polinas are inconsistent, Julia though already rivals Adelina's PCS in international seniors debut, Liza well she has poor PCS like Gracie's we'll see how they will improve this season

2014 Olympic hopefuls

* Gold Favorite: Kim Yuna

other potential contenders:
Julia, Mao, Gracie, Ashley, Kanako , Carolina and Liza

outside shot/non factors:
Sotnikova, Suzuki, Osmond, maybe Gao ?

[janetfan]

while I agree Adelina will be a non factor until she is 25-28 years old, girl cannot make 2 clean skates to save her life yet
the Polinas are inconsistent, Julia though already rivals Adelina's PCS in international seniors debut, Liza well she has poor PCS like Gracie's we'll see how they will improve this season

2014 Olympic hopefuls

* Gold Favorite: Kim Yuna

other potential contenders:
Julia, Mao, Gracie, Ashley, Kanako , Carolina and Liza

outside shot/non factors:
Sotnikova, Suzuki, Osmond, maybe Gao ?

Interesting - but do you really think a skater like Julia - who skates through the music and has pre-puberty jumps that barely leave the ice now- will actualy be given skating's highest honor?

Caro could land 4-5 triples and beat her easily simply because she is such a totally superior skater and artist on the ice.

Maybe it is a matter of taste - or Russian desperation to finally do what USA Ladies have done seven times...which is to win the OGM.

Honestly, I don't see senior skating going in the direction of rewarding Julia's juniorish skating over more mature skaters like Yuna, Mao, Caro, etc.

At a GP event it is one thing.....but the Olympics??? I guess we will have to wait and see......

[sky_fly20]

Interesting - but do you really think a skater like Julia - who skates through the music and has pre-puberty jumps that barely leave the ice now- will actualy be given skating's highest honor?

Caro could land 4-5 triples and beat her easily simply because she is such a totally superior skater and artist on the ice.

Maybe it is a matter of taste - or Russian desperation to finally do what USA Ladies have done seven times...which is to win the OGM.

Honestly, I don't see senior skating going in the direction of rewarding Julia's juniorish skating over more mature skaters like Yuna, Mao, Caro, etc.

At a GP event it is one thing.....but the Olympics??? I guess we will have to wait and see......

Julia already has good PCS scores, she racks many +GOE's that's just from her spins alone, she will still improve she as you say is juniorish because she is 14 years old
but she is gradually improving, the audience are clearly not bored by her if you see all her competitions.

The one who WINS the Olympics will be the most consistent !
CONSISTENCY will be the key . period !

no matter how good your skating is, look at Sasha, Alissa or Adelina
lovely skaters but crumble under pressure, they have great potential but just so-so....

[janetfan]

Julia already has good PCS scores, she racks many +GOE's that's just from her spins alone, she will still improve she as you say is juniorish because she is 14 years old
but she is gradually improving, the audience are clearly not bored by her if you see all her competitions.

The one who WINS the Olympics will be the most consistent !
CONSISTENCY will be the key . period !

no matter how good your skating is, look at Sasha, Alissa or Adelina
lovely skaters but crumble under pressure, they have great potential but just so-so....

I will grant you that Julia is a great spinner.....which is something I admire.

But as far as owning the ice - I think she has a long way to go - at the senior "Olympic" level.

If we watch Yuna's incredible 2010 Olympic programs -I just don't see Julia anywhere near that.

But a year and a half can be a life-time for some of these young skaters,

I think many Americans like Adelina because we recognize such top quality in so much of her skating - and presentation.

I did not mention Liza....and don't mean to single out Julia for criticism....but junior is as junior does.

Believe me, I am sure we will see the rarest of occurences in Sochi - that being in the last 60 years a Russian lady on the Olympic podium. Aside from Irina it is rare - but between the talent and home ice advantage I have little doubt a Russian lady will be on the Sochi podium.

I think that is a good thing - and like always hope it is fair.
Right now I see Adelina on the Sochi podium......but realize most Russian posters disagree with me.

[sky_fly20]

I will grant you that Julia is a great spinner.....which is something I admire.

But as far as owning the ice - I think she has a long way to go - at the senior "Olympic" level.

If we watch Yuna's incredible 2010 Olympic programs -I just don't see Julia anywhere near that.

But a year and a half can be a life-time for some of these young skaters,

I think many Americans like Adelina because we recognize such top quality in so much of her skating - and presentation.

I did not mention Liza....and don't mean to single out Julia for criticism....but junior is as junior does.

Believe me, I am sure we will see the rarest of occurences in Sochi - that being in the last 60 years a Russian lady on the Olympic podium. Aside from Irina it is rare - but between the talent and home ice advantage I have little doubt a Russian lady will be on the Sochi podium.

I think that is a good thing - and like always hope it is fair.
Right now I see Adelina on the Sochi podium......but realize most Russian posters disagree with me.

by definition of owning the ice is not just from skaters but the ability to wow the audeince, Yuna did that with flying colors at the Olympics
I believe Julia can do the same, the response she gets from the audience when she is on the ice is something not many skaters can get

I used to be one of Adelina's biggest admirers she has huge talent probably one of the best of the new crop of ladies
but her inability to skate 2 clean programs and inconsistency is such a letdown that I just had to gave up on her.

[Jammers]

Julia is still tiny and skates Juniorish with rather average sized jumps. Plus she could grow 3-4 inches over the next year and all bets will be off. Plus Yuna was a special kind of skater. When she skated at Worlds for the first time in 2007 in the SP she blew everyone away not just with her speed and incredible 3-3 combo but her maturity for being only 16. I don't see Julia being that mature 16 months from now.

[drivingmissdaisy]

no matter how good your skating is, look at Sasha, Alissa or Adelina
lovely skaters but crumble under pressure, they have great potential but just so-so....

I don't think it's fair to compare a 16 year old to those who have had years and years of inconsistent performances. Adelina is attempting technical content in the jumps and spins as difficult as anyone in the world right now. She is still growing and changing but it isn't like she has a long career of meltdowns.

[pangtongfan]

Why is Julia being compared to Yu Na from 2010. There is virtually no chance the winner in 2014 will match the performance from Yu Na Kim in 2010 which are far and away the best Olympic performances in history (maybe the best performances in history period). I actually think Yu Na will defend in 2014, but whether the winner is Yu Na herself or someone else, I highly doubt she will match the performances from Kim in 2010. That is not the level which will likely be needed to win the 2014 Olympics so even if Julia doesnt reach the level she might well reach the level needed to win the 2014 Olympics.

Nobody has to agree with my list of gold contenders though. I was curious to see others peoples lists but those who are saying who they dont think is a contender for the 2014 Gold are not bothering to post who they think is.

[lowtherlore]

I would add Joannie to the list, if she come back true. She looked to be in terrific shape lately as last August. I want to see Canada secure 2 spots for 2014.