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Thread: How many skaters have legitimate chances at 2014 Olympic Gold as it looks now.

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    How many skaters have legitimate chances at 2014 Olympic Gold as it looks now.

    I was just thinking that right now it is looking like more skaters than any other Olympics in history will have a legitimate chance of the gold medal. Right now I would Ashley Wagner, Gracie Gold, Adelina Sotnikova, Yu Na Kim, Julia Lipnitskaia, Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, Mao Asada, Caroline Kostner, all have a chance at the gold at next years Olympics. Then I would say additional skaters who have no chance at the gold but a chance at a medal would be Akiko Suzuki, whoever the #3 Japanese is (Murakami, Imai, maybe in an unlikely event Ando), possibly even the #3 American, Korpi, Kexin, if she makes the Russian team Leonova, but that would drop the # of gold contenders to only 7 as she will bump off one of them. So basically as many as 8 gold contenders, and as many as 13 medal contenders. It is an interesting contrast to past Olympics:

    1980:

    Gold contenders- Poetzsch, Fratianne, Lurz. (3)
    Medal/non gold contenders- Watanabe, Marie Allen, Biellmann. (6)


    1984:

    Gold contenders- Sumners, Witt. (2)
    Medal/non gold contenders- Zayak, Chin, Kondrashova, Ivanova, Voderezova, Leistner, Rueben. (9)


    1988:

    Gold contenders- Thomas, Witt, Manley. (3)
    Medal/non gold contenders- Ivanova, Trenary, Kadavy. (6)


    1992:

    Gold contenders- Yamaguchi, Ito, Harding. (3)
    Medal/non gold contenders- Bonaly, Kerrigan. (5)


    1994:

    Gold contenders- Kerrigan, Bauil, Bonaly. (3)
    Medal/non gold contenders- Sato, Chen, Chouinard. (6)


    1998:

    Gold contenders- Kwan, Lipinski. (2)
    Medal/non gold contenders- Butyrskaya, Chen, Slutskaya, Bobek, Hubert, Gusmeroli, Szewcenko. (9, really 8 since Tanja withdrew)


    2002:

    Gold contenders- Kwan, Slutskaya, Hughes. (3)
    Medal/non gold contenders- Cohen, Butyrskaya. (5)


    2006:

    Gold contenders- Slutskaya, Arakawa, Cohen. (3)
    Medal/non gold contenders- Suguri, Kwan, Kostner, Meissner. (7, really 6 since Kwan withdrew)


    2010:

    Gold contenders- Kim. (1)
    Medal/non gold contenders- Rochette, Asada, Ando. (4)
    Last edited by pangtongfan; 10-22-2012 at 12:42 AM.

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    Custom Title christinaskater's Avatar
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    2013:

    It could go to either Wagner-Lipnitskaia-Kim-Ando-Kostner-Asada or Suzuki.

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    Asada may not have been on Yuna's level but she was certainly on a higher level than ando or rochette! I think she was on the gold level.

    All other years seem more right.

    2012 sotnikova can't beat Osmond and Gao! You think that is like Mao being a non medalist at 2009 worlds or not medaling at 2009 cup of Russia??

    There does seem to be a lot if good contenders but some have to show a senior win ability and lipnitskaia won over korpi but needs more like a gp as well as gold and this season too. I doubt 2014 gold medalist won't win anything until the 2013-2014 season!!

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    Kim Yuna
    Julia, Ashley, Mao, Liza, Gracie and maybe Carolina
    Last edited by sky_fly20; 10-22-2012 at 04:02 AM.

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    So many, which is to tell we have incredibly deep field ib both singles disciplines. It's really amazing.

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    The Ladies field will be SO exciting in Sochi!
    But I think that, in 2010, Japanese fans still considered the Olympic gold a Mao vs Yu-Na battle, even if we knew that Yu-Na was far better than Mao, especially considering the 2009-2010 results before Olys...

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    Japanese fans weren't the only ones. I thought so, too, and I'm assuming a lot of other people did as well. I remember seeing a poster here say that YuNa and Mao were an entire different level of skater from everyone else, and I remember agreeing. Both were light-years ahead of the rest of the world in terms of quality. Add to that the slipperiness of ice and the uncertainty of life, and either of these stellar ladies could have won if certain conditions had been different. As it was, YuNa unquestionably dominated in Vancouver, and no one else has caught up to her in the intervening years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by FSGMT View Post
    The Ladies field will be SO exciting in Sochi!
    But I think that, in 2010, Japanese fans still considered the Olympic gold a Mao vs Yu-Na battle, even if we knew that Yu-Na was far better than Mao, especially considering the 2009-2010 results before Olys...
    Yuna was far better but I think it's fair to say Mao was a legitimate contender for gold. It's not common for someone to skate the two best programs of their career at the Olympics, which is what Yuna accomplished.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Olympia View Post
    Japanese fans weren't the only ones. I thought so, too, and I'm assuming a lot of other people did as well. I remember seeing a poster here say that YuNa and Mao were an entire different level of skater from everyone else, and I remember agreeing. Both were light-years ahead of the rest of the world in terms of quality. Add to that the slipperiness of ice and the uncertainty of life, and either of these stellar ladies could have won if certain conditions had been different. As it was, YuNa unquestionably dominated in Vancouver, and no one else has caught up to her in the intervening years.
    I thought Asada and Rochette were neck and neck before Vancouver, and that is exactly how it turned out. Asada did a clean short with a squeeky clean triple axel combo and ended up only 2 points ahead of Rochette and her triple-double, and both made mistakes in the long, Asada did her 2 triple axels, and barely stayed ahead of Rochette. Actually based on their skating coming into the Games I thought Rochette was more likely to get the silver than Asada, Asada raised her game up and skated better than she did most of the season, and still needed a couple carless errors from Rochette in the long to get the silver. Had Joannie's Mom not died before the Games I think she would have skated a bit better and been 2nd to be honest.

    I never thought Kim could lose the Gold unless she bombed. I always viewed it as more a coronation than competition for her.

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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    Yuna was far better but I think it's fair to say Mao was a legitimate contender for gold. It's not common for someone to skate the two best programs of their career at the Olympics, which is what Yuna accomplished.
    That's exactly it, DrivingMissDaisy. A lot of splendid skaters have gone into the Olympics and skated adequately but not up to their potential. The pressure of that venue must be almost unbearable. Some of these skaters have even lucked out and won, because everyone else did even worse. But in Vancouver, YuNa really laid it down. No one could have beaten her that night--possibly no woman who has ever skated. As a viewer, I'll always be grateful to her for making the Olympic experience so wonderful for skating fans (not just her fans!). Often the Olympics can be a letdown to watch because skaters pull back or have a bad night or whatever, but YuNa left nothing undone. The great thing is that all the other final women skaters also pulled it out and skated magnificently, so the entire evening was an awesome experience for viewers (in the stadium and onscreen). How often does that happen? As I see it, there were no losers that night, and I can only hope for that kind of quality in Sochi.

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    I'm afraid that because everyone skated so well in the final group which was probably the best collective skating ever in an Olympic games for the women that Sochi is going to be more like 1992. A splatfest.

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    I wouldn't mind reliving 1992 if there's a Midori Ito moment in 2014 Sochi. Her unplanned second triple axel in the long program made it more memorable than anything in 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, and 2010.
    In 2014, that would be a really well liked lady going for a quad in the last minute of the LP to put herself on the podium.

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    Flattfan, that's a lovely thought. Wouldn't it be wonderful to see such spirit and grit at Sochi?

    I think Mao's three triple Axels in 2010 had some of that determination, and I was thrilled to see her go for them--and succeed.

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    2014
    Men: Chan, Hanyu and Takahashi

    Ladies: Tuktamisheva, Lipnitskaia, Sotnikova, Wagner, Asada, Suzuki, Kim

    Pairs: Volosozhar/Trankov, Savchenko/Szolkowy

    Dance: Davis/White, Virtue/Moir

    2010 Ladies: I think there's a bit of revisionism here, but an interesting type.

    Heading into the season, it was absolutely Kim vs Asada. Yeah: Asada fell off the podium at Worlds, but she posted two massive scores at the World Team Trophy (about six points shy of what Kim posted at Worlds). She had peaked too late; heading into the Vancouver season she was still the last person to have beaten Kim (GPF 08/09). But then TEB happened. TEB was an epic event this season: two world champions (Kim, Asada), another world medalist (Kostner), another European medalist (Korpi). And Kim utterly destroyed Asada. It was a bigger victory than Worlds was. Asada barely made the top five at CoR. She was down and out. Meanwhile, Miki Ando was having a resurgent season, winning both her GPs. Suzuki won her first GP gold at CoC. It was a deep field, and while Asada wasn't going to be left off the team or anything, she wasn't proving to be OGM material at this point either.

    But the thing was, Kim wasn't perfect this season at all. She had the wierd moment with the flip in France. Her Skate America LP fell apart. She went from a 30+ point victory in France over Asada to barely beating Ando at the GPF. The pressure of the season was getting to her. Let's not forget Rochette, who had only a slightly better first half to her season than Asada, but posting scores in China and the GPF that wouldn't get her anywhere near the podium. Yes, she had that epic Nationals long program - a clean, huge seven triple skate. But she also had the weight of expectations and her personal grief. The season didn't promise much.

    So that's partially why the Olympics Ladies event was such a thriller. It's rare to have our expectations so thoroughly upended like that. It was the climax of a four year long narrative (the rise of the Asian ladies; Canada with a true medal contender, the decline of the Americans - no third spot for the first time ever). It was both culmination of an amazing four years (will Kim be this good again?) and the suggestion of four more exceptional ones (even if some of the ladies: Nagasu, Makarova didn't quite live up to our hopes). The other reason: well the top EIGHT personal bests were scored here. The top twelve long programs were completely without falls. We got class, courage, and conviction from this group of ladies. And from Kim we merely got perfection. The Eurosport commentators said "Pressure? What pressure? She doesn't feel pressure." But that's not true. This wasn't extraordinary because she didn't feel pressure. This was extraordinary because she rose to meet it. It was truly a privilege to watch these performances.

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    Julia Lipnitskaya, Caroline Zhang, Gracie Gold, Mirai Nagasu, Rachel Flatt, Mao Asada, Yu-Na Kim, and many more.

    This is just a personal wishlist, but you never know what will happen.

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