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Thread: Is this the end of 'Chanflation'?

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    Is this the end of 'Chanflation'?

    Great performance today from Javier Fernandez. Thoroughly deserved win.

    This is the second successive international defeat for Patrick Chan in a row this season. Does this therefore spell the end of what has become known as 'Chanflation'?

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    Nah, probably chanflation is just taking a brief intermission. Or having a smoke backstage with cousin osmondflation.

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    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    I think its just a case of statistical "regression toward the mean." This happens all by itself in any collection of paired data, and does not required an "expalnation."

    When Patrick first came on the scene nobody in amateur skating ever had such quick feet and skillful blade work. (I reserve Kurt Browning as a pro).) His perfomances were astonishing -- if only he had a quad!

    A couple of season's later -- he had a quad!! Patrick was superman.

    Now, well, he's still superman, but what have you done for us lately?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    I think its just a case of statistical "regression toward the mean." This happens all by itself in any collection of paired data, and does not required an "expalnation."

    When Patrick first came on the scene nobody in amateur skating ever had such quick feet and skillful blade work. (I reserve Kurt Browning as a pro).) His perfomances were astonishing -- if only he had a quad!

    A couple of season's later -- he had a quad!! Patrick was superman.
    Totally agreed with what you said except for the sentence "His performances were astonishing". Nay, his skating skills were astonishing but his performances were "......" (hehe, I'd better not say it out loud).

    Now he is not the only man with quads. Nor is he the only one with quick feet. Though he might still have the quickest ones, the gap with his rivals is no longer that huge. What has he done for us lately? He has improved his artistry. Good for him. If he can improve his consistency as well, we will see Chanflation to the extreme

    I actually don't see any attitude change regarding how the judges give him scores. What has changed is his competitors' scores. They are catching up on him. If there was such thing as Chanflation, we are now in the era of Global Inflation.
    Last edited by skatinginbc; 10-27-2012 at 09:37 PM.

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    I don't think Javier's victory had anything to do with the "end of Chanflation." Javier could have won Skate Canada last year had he held it together in the FS. He landed two quads, but fell on the 3A, and then doubled a loop later on. Too many errors (and not enough by Patrick).

    This year he again got two quads (one in the second half!), had a fall on another quad attempt, BUT got the 3A, and landed all his other jumps. He increased the base value by changing his jump layout this season in many different ways (increased the quad attempts to three, with one in the second half, the new 3F/half loop/3S sequence, etc). Also, his new FS program is brilliant and a real winner, unlike his FS last year. (I think his SP from last year was better than this year's, though.)

    Patrick could have won this competition had he not made too many errors. But he usually starts the season slow, and in previous seasons, his competitors just weren't good enough that it prevented him from winning in spite of his errors. Now his competition has stepped it up and so his errors are more costly.

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    What we're seeing is escalation in the Men's discipline. Chan came into events with high PCS, three quads across two programs, a smart risk VS. reward jump layout, high levels for his technical elements, and strong rotational discipline on his quads. It's a big advantage over facing a Daisuke Takahashi who is performing a Flying Upright Level 2 spin.

    Now, Chan's competitors have incorporated better transitions, multiple quads, and high level non-jump elements into their programs. It's leveled the playing field somewhat. It's also possible that Chan's technical ability may have regressed since he used to be very good at getting in the rotations for his quads.

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    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by skatinginbc View Post
    Totally agreed with what you said except for the sentence "His performances were astonishing". Nay, his skating skills were astonishing but his performances were "......"
    Patrick at 17.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xc2jXafZZws

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    Hah, we have more recent evidence of an "astonishing performance" by Chan (2011 Canadian Nationals http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E49QK_Fto5M ) but as they say, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. The two things I regret are the slightly excessive arm flailing and the completely generic soundtrack from the Phantom...but I think that is one of the best men's LP's of all time. Many of the quad-giants of the past seemed to labour/muscle through their quads, whereas even the effortlessness of Chan's is remarkable. It is too bad he didn't have a perfect skate of his life to his Aranjuez, which would have been artistically better. I love his SP this year. PChan and Yuzuru Hanyu may turn out to be my favourite male skaters of all time!

    Quote Originally Posted by Srin Odessa View Post
    What we're seeing is escalation in the Men's discipline. Chan came into events with high PCS, three quads across two programs, a smart risk VS. reward jump layout, high levels for his technical elements, and strong rotational discipline on his quads. It's a big advantage over facing a Daisuke Takahashi who is performing a Flying Upright Level 2 spin.

    Now, Chan's competitors have incorporated better transitions, multiple quads, and high level non-jump elements into their programs. It's leveled the playing field somewhat. It's also possible that Chan's technical ability may have regressed since he used to be very good at getting in the rotations for his quads.
    I very much agree with your assessment, and jaylee's analysis of Skate Canada. It was a combination of Javier doing better, and Patrick making a few too many mistakes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    Thank-you for reminding me of this, it is truly a stunning skate and his reaction near the end honestly brought tears to my eyes.

    Congrats to Javier! Congrats to Chan! Congrats to Oda!

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    My preference would actually be for the ISU to go back and watch some tapes of results that they disagree with and revamp the scoring to produce outcomes that make more sense. I don't like seeing the judges massage the PCS to produce a result because someone didn't take enough of a hit for mistakes on the TES. If that's the case PCS should be marked accurately and mistakes need to be more penalized in the TES.

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