Maximum skaters at GPF | Page 2 | Golden Skate

Maximum skaters at GPF

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
I don't think Jeremy has any shot to qualify does he? With a 5th at his first event even if he wins his 2nd he likely wouldn't make it. Some weird things would have to happen. Usually a win and a 4th qualifies in one of the last spots, so I think he's all but out of this. Dornbush has better odds.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
I don't think Jeremy has any shot to qualify does he? With a 5th at his first event even if he wins his 2nd he likely wouldn't make it. Some weird things would have to happen. Usually a win and a 4th qualifies in one of the last spots, so I think he's all but out of this. Dornbush has better odds.

Actually in the 2009-2010 season, he got in the grand pix final with a 1st and 5th. Basically there were four different skaters with first place finishes (Oda (2), Lysacek, Joubert and Abbott of course). Takahashi got in with a 2nd and 4th and Weir with two 2nd place finishes.)

Jeremy has a chance to get first with a weak field at TEB and then beat whoever doesn't win a GP. But then it really depends on how others place.
 
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Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
The qualifier scenario in 2009 GPF was this:

two gold (Oda) =30
one gold, one silver (Lysacek) =28
one gold + 4th (Joubert) = 24
one gold + 5th (Abbott) =22
silver +4th (Weir) = 22
silver + 4th (Takahashi) = 22


So far we have the following.

one gold, one bronze (Machida) = 26

If Jeremy finishes first at TEB we have this:

one gold, one bronze (Machida) = 26
one gold + 5th (Abbott) =22


Basically Abbott is trouble if enough five skaters can score 24 or above. With Machida already above him, he basically out if more than five of the GP medalists so far manage to win another medal (and/or the gold medalists hold on to at least 4th place). Here are medalists so far:

Kozuka (COR)
Fernandez (NHK)
Hanyu (NHK)
Chan (COR)
Takahashi (NHK)
Oda (COR)
Voronov (NHK)

Basically one scenario where Jeremy could be in is this: Oda (COR) and Voronov (NHK) get second bronze; Jeremy beats them due to 1st place finish; Dornbush gets silver at COR but skates in 4th at NHK (22, loses tie breaker), Kozuka wins again (30), Chan gets 4th (22, loses tie breaker), Fernandez wins at NHK 30, Daisuke silver (26), Hanyu Bronze (24). GPF would be this:

Kozuka -30 2 golds
Fernandez -30 2 golds
Machida -26 1 gold, 1 silver
Daisuke -26 2 silvers
Hanyu -24 1 silver, 1 bronze
Abbott -22 1 gold + 5th

As you can see, lots of crazy things would have to happen. Of course this is all moot if Jeremy doesn't win at TEB.
 
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Bluebonnet

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 18, 2010
As long as Abbott keeps putting a quad in SP as his team had been doing, it is almost certain that he will have a fall in SP and/or in LP.:p I'd love Jeremy proves me wrong at TEB and lands both quads.
 
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Buttercup

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 25, 2008
Actually in the 2009-2010 season, he got in the grand pix final with a 1st and 5th. Basically there were four different skaters with first place finishes (Oda (2), Lysacek, Joubert and Abbott of course). Takahashi got in with a 2nd and 4th and Weir with two 2nd place finishes.)
2009-10 was kind of a strange year though, because you had Plushenko winning one GP but not doing another one, and Chan was injured and only competed at SC, where he skated badly. Also the Japanese men were not yet quite the powerhouse that they are now, and there were lots of medalists beyond the usual suspects (Rippon, Voronov, Brezina, Borodulin, Sawyer, Bradley, Preaubert).

I don't think we're going to have that many surprises this year; other than Machida's excellent showing, the podiums so far haven't been too crazy - and it's not like Machida is a bad skater. So basically, I think Abbott's odds of going to Sochi this season are almost nil. His chances of going to Sochi next season are another matter, and while not nil, I'm not sure they are as high as some might expect.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
You will at Worlds.

You seem awfully pessimistic about Patrick, IP. You have him losing again to Kozuka at COR and you're telling us that you think he might come into 4th at WORLDS? Or should I take this as some sort of backwards optimism that you're hoping he'll peak at Sochi (the Olympics, not GPF, of course).

And yes "pigs will fly" if Chan gets 4th at COR, which is funny given that Jeremy's fan club is called "Pigs Can Fly..." Oh I'm so not funny.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
2009-10 was kind of a strange year though, because you had Plushenko winning one GP but not doing another one, and Chan was injured and only competed at SC, where he skated badly. Also the Japanese men were not yet quite the powerhouse that they are now, and there were lots of medalists beyond the usual suspects (Rippon, Voronov, Brezina, Borodulin, Sawyer, Bradley, Preaubert).

I don't think we're going to have that many surprises this year; other than Machida's excellent showing, the podiums so far haven't been too crazy - and it's not like Machida is a bad skater. So basically, I think Abbott's odds of going to Sochi this season are almost nil. His chances of going to Sochi next season are another matter, and while not nil, I'm not sure they are as high as some might expect.

Oh yeah, I forgot about Plushenko's win and Chan's subpar showing on his one event.

I will say it was awesome seeing Shawn Sawyer win a GP medal.....
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
You seem awfully pessimistic about Patrick, IP. You have him losing again to Kozuka at COR and you're telling us that you think he might come into 4th at WORLDS? Or should I take this as some sort of backwards optimism that you're hoping he'll peak at Sochi (the Olympics, not GPF, of course).

Both......?
 

Butterscotch17

On the Ice
Joined
Apr 26, 2012
You will at Worlds.

No way, not in Canada. Chan doesn't look quite as strong this season, but I definitely haven't written him off. My gut feeling is that Chan will barely squeak out the win at this coming Worlds, but then fade before the Olympics.

And by the way, I am by no means a Chan fan.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
A three fall Hanyu at Skate America outpointed a one fall Chan at Skate Canada (over two programs).

Well to be fair Hanyu had an amazing SP then a meltdown in the FS to get that score. As far as the FS, Chan scored better (148.67 for Hanyu vs. 160.91 for Chan), but not enough to make up I guess the 13 point difference from the SP.
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
I'm well aware of the circumstances surrounding their respective silver medals (indeed, I checked the scores before I posted just to see if my recollection was correct). Though, just for fun, my predicted podium at Worlds is Kozuka-Fernandez-Abbott, so take from that what will.
 

Butterscotch17

On the Ice
Joined
Apr 26, 2012
^^Big kudos to you if you're right...I'm not that risky :)

Although aren't you in the lead in the Grand Prix predictions game? I probably shouldn't bet against you ;)
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
You will at Worlds.

Worlds is very different from COR, all the best skaters will be there, not the case at COR where there are only 10 skaters and the top ones are seeded so that they don't all end up at the same event...4th at Worlds is definitely possible. Unlikely, but possible.
 

Cherryy

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 27, 2012
So we do have 4 japanese men in Grand Prix Final. Japanese nationals are going to be extremely interesting! :popcorn:
 
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