Richard Dornbush is definitely a factor too. He actually beat Yuzuru in the free skate at Finlandia with a BV of 85 and TES of 92. So he capable of posting a huge score of he just hits the jumps even if he will get low PCS relative to his competiitors.
Richard wasn't exactly lucky with his asignments, I think. CoR has Kozuka, Chan and Oda; while NHK has Takahashi, Hanyu and Fernandez. I guess he needs to be at least 2nd at least once, and that will need some of the others to make mistakes. And while he won on TES, Hanyu did win the FS at Finlandia overall... Richard can get huge TES, but he'll really be missing the PCS. Especially his SP I think might not get him enough points.Originally Posted by Mrs.P
I'd like to see him at the GPF rather than seeing Amodio, to be honest, but I'm still a little sceptic if he can put together two clean (or at least close to clean) skates.
Dornbush also had higher tech bv to Hanyu's (85:81). I agree that it's gonna be hard for Dornbush to get on the podium in Russia, but predictions haven't been going very smoothly this season. He might surprise us like Machida.
If Abbott can keep it together, he should definitely knock Amodio out of the top spot. Even if Amodio wins, he'd have 24 points. Wouldn't Hanyu and Takahashi still make the GPF if they win silver and gold (in w/e order) at NHK? It's going to be difficult though with Fernandez there.
I think Oda's CoR placement is going to be just as important as Amodio's TEB placement. If Oda miraculously wins CoR (26 points) doesn't he knock out Hanyu or Takahashi automatically b/c his win > Hanyu/Takahashi's 2nd place finish when they end up with the same point total?
If Hanyu and Takahashi win the top two spots at NHK, both are in. However, there is definitely the feeling that Fernandez might play spoiler. If Amodio wins TEB, things get very interesting at NHK.
If Fernandez wins, he'll probably never be invited to NHK again.
I don't think Jeremy has any shot to qualify does he? With a 5th at his first event even if he wins his 2nd he likely wouldn't make it. Some weird things would have to happen. Usually a win and a 4th qualifies in one of the last spots, so I think he's all but out of this. Dornbush has better odds.
Actually in the 2009-2010 season, he got in the grand pix final with a 1st and 5th. Basically there were four different skaters with first place finishes (Oda (2), Lysacek, Joubert and Abbott of course). Takahashi got in with a 2nd and 4th and Weir with two 2nd place finishes.)
Jeremy has a chance to get first with a weak field at TEB and then beat whoever doesn't win a GP. But then it really depends on how others place.
Last edited by Mrs. P; 11-05-2012 at 01:15 AM.
The qualifier scenario in 2009 GPF was this:
two gold (Oda) =30
one gold, one silver (Lysacek) =28
one gold + 4th (Joubert) = 24
one gold + 5th (Abbott) =22
silver +4th (Weir) = 22
silver + 4th (Takahashi) = 22
So far we have the following.
one gold, one bronze (Machida) = 26
If Jeremy finishes first at TEB we have this:
one gold, one bronze (Machida) = 26
one gold + 5th (Abbott) =22
Basically Abbott is trouble if enough five skaters can score 24 or above. With Machida already above him, he basically out if more than five of the GP medalists so far manage to win another medal (and/or the gold medalists hold on to at least 4th place). Here are medalists so far:
Kozuka (COR)
Fernandez (NHK)
Hanyu (NHK)
Chan (COR)
Takahashi (NHK)
Oda (COR)
Voronov (NHK)
Basically one scenario where Jeremy could be in is this: Oda (COR) and Voronov (NHK) get second bronze; Jeremy beats them due to 1st place finish; Dornbush gets silver at COR but skates in 4th at NHK (22, loses tie breaker), Kozuka wins again (30), Chan gets 4th (22, loses tie breaker), Fernandez wins at NHK 30, Daisuke silver (26), Hanyu Bronze (24). GPF would be this:
Kozuka -30 2 golds
Fernandez -30 2 golds
Machida -26 1 gold, 1 silver
Daisuke -26 2 silvers
Hanyu -24 1 silver, 1 bronze
Abbott -22 1 gold + 5th
As you can see, lots of crazy things would have to happen. Of course this is all moot if Jeremy doesn't win at TEB.
Last edited by Mrs. P; 11-05-2012 at 01:54 AM.
As long as Abbott keeps putting a quad in SP as his team had been doing, it is almost certain that he will have a fall in SP and/or in LP.
Last edited by Bluebonnet; 11-05-2012 at 11:37 AM.
2009-10 was kind of a strange year though, because you had Plushenko winning one GP but not doing another one, and Chan was injured and only competed at SC, where he skated badly. Also the Japanese men were not yet quite the powerhouse that they are now, and there were lots of medalists beyond the usual suspects (Rippon, Voronov, Brezina, Borodulin, Sawyer, Bradley, Preaubert).
I don't think we're going to have that many surprises this year; other than Machida's excellent showing, the podiums so far haven't been too crazy - and it's not like Machida is a bad skater. So basically, I think Abbott's odds of going to Sochi this season are almost nil. His chances of going to Sochi next season are another matter, and while not nil, I'm not sure they are as high as some might expect.
Yeah....Chan coming in 4th, I'd like to see that happen
You will at Worlds.Yeah....Chan coming in 4th, I'd like to see that happen
You seem awfully pessimistic about Patrick, IP. You have him losing again to Kozuka at COR and you're telling us that you think he might come into 4th at WORLDS? Or should I take this as some sort of backwards optimism that you're hoping he'll peak at Sochi (the Olympics, not GPF, of course).
And yes "pigs will fly" if Chan gets 4th at COR, which is funny given that Jeremy's fan club is called "Pigs Can Fly..." Oh I'm so not funny.
Oh yeah, I forgot about Plushenko's win and Chan's subpar showing on his one event.
I will say it was awesome seeing Shawn Sawyer win a GP medal.....
Both......?
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