Who is Russia's best skater going into Sochi? | Page 2 | Golden Skate

Who is Russia's best skater going into Sochi?

Slowdive

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 27, 2010
My bet on the Olympic team are Liza, Adelina & Alena.
As much as I like Julia, I doubt that she'll be ready to make a big splash on the senior figure skating scene by 2014.
 
Joined
Jul 30, 2012
Country
Russia
As much as I like Julia, I doubt that she'll be ready to make a big splash on the senior figure skating scene by 2014.
At Finlandia Trophy less than a month ago Julia did not give any chance to Kiira Korpi (who is 3 times medalist of Euro) and demonstrated new 3Lz+3T combo.
From Russian Nationals at December 2010 (when Julia was 12 and a half years old) to now her base value of FS is about 56.25 (for comparing - Ashley Wagner's Total BV: 54.72 at Nationals 2012).
This weekend we will see Julia, Mao, Mirai at GP Event in China.

Adelina and Liza have problems now - Liza to be familiar with her new body, Adelina with nerves at first. How will they overcome - we will see.
 

russell30

Final Flight
Joined
Dec 14, 2004
My bet on the Olympic team are Liza, Adelina & Alena.
As much as I like Julia, I doubt that she'll be ready to make a big splash on the senior figure skating scene by 2014.

I would have to say Adelina for sure, not sure on the rest, Liza has growth issues and maybe Julia probably will have the same.

Alena has a decent shot if Liza and Julia are going to have problems adjusting to their body changes, you cannot count Alena out she seems to be a fighter!!
 
Joined
Jul 30, 2012
Country
Russia
I would have to say Adelina for sure, not sure on the rest, Liza has growth issues and maybe Julia probably will have the same.

Alena has a decent shot if Liza and Julia are going to have problems adjusting to their body changes, you cannot count Alena out she seems to be a fighter!!

Alena LEONOVA - horribly unstable, but 2nd place of Worlds. She is in love now, it often gives temporarily worse results.
Ksenia MAKAROVA - we do not treat her as "all in past", very nice skating.
Adelina SOTNIKOVA - her main problem now - her nerves.
Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA - shows progress with respect to her state at beginning of season.
Polina KOROBEYNIKOVA - very nice skating, but unstable. Some progress in Nice.
These five have visible problems, but they have more than a year for overcoming.

Julia LIPNITSKAIA - one of two best skaters of 2011/12 (together with Carolina KOSTNER), no serious problems now.

These six (and may be some of 2 or 3 skaters not mentioned above) will pretend to Sochi. Who will earn places - nobody knows.
 
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Li'Kitsu

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 29, 2011
AlexRus said:
At Finlandia Trophy less than a month ago Julia did not give any chance to Kiira Korpi (who is 3 times medalist of Euro) and demonstrated new 3Lz+3T combo.

The person not leaving Kiira any chance was Kiira herself. Julia was pretty much clean except for one step-out, but Kiira messed up the FS. Had she been clean, she would have won.
Additionally, Kiira might be a medalist at european championships, but I don't think she'd be considered a real contender for world medals.

I disagree that Julia won't be making a splash at the senior scene, she most definitly will. It depends on the other senior ladies too - Mao at CoC or Ashley at TEB should beat her no doubt if they are nearly clean (like Ashley at SA or Mao at JO minus the invalid spin) - but Julia is surely going to be on those poduims (which I'd consider great enough to be a splash).
 
Joined
Jul 30, 2012
Country
Russia
I disagree that Julia won't be making a splash at the senior scene, she most definitly will. It depends on the other senior ladies too - Mao at CoC or Ashley at TEB should beat her no doubt if they are nearly clean (like Ashley at SA or Mao at JO minus the invalid spin) - but Julia is surely going to be on those poduims (which I'd consider great enough to be a splash).
At JO (there was only FS) Ashley had 6 triples (one underrotated) and two negative GOEs, Mao had the same.
So problem was not only invalid spin.

Julia ... She had some mistakes at Finlandia Trophy, but she may became better fast. For example, in her 2nd JGP Event 2011 past season her score was 10.5 points better than at previous (because of more clean skating), less than a month before.

Let us see at weekend.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
I'm not convinced Liza is taking puberty especially hard. She was injured in the offseason and that might be the main cause of her struggles now more than anything else, not to mention there's also a lot of pressure on her after making such a big splash last season. Yes, her body has changed, but if she is through the bulk of her body changes by now, then she got off pretty lucky in terms of puberty. She's still very tiny. She's never had the willowy reed-like body type someone like Yuna had at 14, and her growing taller and filling out is minimal compared to the changes someone like Mirai, Caroline, Kimmie, etc. went through around that age. She can still jump well and do 3-3s, and she doesn't seem to be having issues rotating her jumps like many girls do when they grow (Mirai, Rachael, Samantha Cesario, Kanako, etc), so really, there isn't reason to panic. Her 112 score she put up in the FS with mistakes is pretty good for early in the season considering the mistakes she made. People will look different at their fighting weights, and there isn't one body type that works for skating, especially if you are very petite like Liza, she can likely get away with being more sturdy in build compared to someone tall. I mean, Shelepen has a beautiful lithe body type and puberty hit her hard and now her jumps are a mess, despite appearing to have the "ideal body type" for skating. So I wouldn't count Liza out yet. Mirai and Caroline grew 4-5 inches and gained probably around 30-50 pounds over the course of a few years, and came back to land jumps with their new bodies, so for people to be worrying about the maybe 2 inches and maybe like 5-10 pounds Liza's gained since last season seems a bit dramatic. She will likely be fine, and further her technique is way better than Mirai and Caroline's ever was.

Adelina is inconsistent for now so even though she has killer jumps the mistakes are going to hurt her regardless. A lot will depend on if she can regain consistency IMO.

As for Julia we will have to see. According to her ISU bio she's already grown 7 cm since last season, now 158 cm, so it is possible if she does in fact have similar genes to Sasha that she will not get much bigger, and for now, her jumps have survived her growth fine for now.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
My bet on the Olympic team are Liza, Adelina & Alena.
As much as I like Julia, I doubt that she'll be ready to make a big splash on the senior figure skating scene by 2014.

Dont make me laugh. Julia has already scored higher in senior comeptition than any of those other three have.
 

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!
Record Breaker
Joined
May 19, 2011
I think the top 3 as of now are Adelina, Liza T and Julia...but that could change.

Adelina is the most complete skater of the 3 but her confidence/consistency issues could take her out of the running...

Liza T is the best in terms of technique but her weak spins and lack of coverage hurt her a little. It remains to be seen if she can return to form after this injury/growth spurt...

Julia has a lot going for her but she's also the biggest question mark. At 14 years old she still has a lot of growing left to do and, given her relatively small jumps, if she gets taller/bigger and loses any rotation she's going to be in trouble. She lacks musicality and interpretation (like nearly every other junior) so that's an area she seriously needs to work on. And for the love of Jebus, someone please get her a choreographer who'll have her do more than pull her leg over her head...
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
It is funny to see the way people talk about Julia. So according to most everyone here she has weak little jumps, overhyped not so great spins or spirals, no artistry or musicality at all, is slow. Yet despite this she crushed a star studded field to easily win World Juniors, and has already posted one of the highest competition scores seen in recent years of the lately relatively lakcuster Senior ladies field to start the season. How does she manage to do all this with such poor jumps, no artistry, no great skills. She must be great at hypnotizing the judges.
 

FSGMT

Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 10, 2012
It is funny to see the way people talk about Julia. So according to most everyone here she has weak little jumps, overhyped not so great spins or spirals, no artistry or musicality at all, is slow. Yet despite this she crushed a star studded field to easily win World Juniors, and has already posted one of the highest competition scores seen in recent years of the lately relatively lakcuster Senior ladies field to start the season. How does she manage to do all this with such poor jumps, no artistry, no great skills. She must be great at hypnotizing the judges.
She is! :p:laugh:
 

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
It is funny to see the way people talk about Julia. So according to most everyone here she has weak little jumps, overhyped not so great spins or spirals, no artistry or musicality at all, is slow. Yet despite this she crushed a star studded field to easily win World Juniors, and has already posted one of the highest competition scores seen in recent years of the lately relatively lakcuster Senior ladies field to start the season. How does she manage to do all this with such poor jumps, no artistry, no great skills. She must be great at hypnotizing the judges.

What I find most ridiculous is that people say if she gets taller she will lose the jumps. Julia has gotten taller, by a lot. I will definitely admit that is not the same as experiencing growth associated with puberty, and puberty may give her problems. However, Julia gets a lot taller every year. It hasn't hurt her yet. As someone else already said she has grown at least 7cm since the start of last season; IIRC she grew even more the season before. Go watch her Russian Nationals performance from 2010, 2011, and then Nebelhorn this year. It is obvious, just from looking, that she grew a LOT during all of these time periods.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Yes I agree. I have also said she reminds me in nearly every conceivable way, except for MUCH better jump technique, jump quality, jump difficulty (anything jump related) and much better basic skating, edge quality, and speed to a young Sasha Cohen (keep in mind Sasha with better jumps and basics and same everything else would have dominated, won 2 Olympics, won 3 or more Worlds, would have dominated Kwan, been best skater ever today, etc..) and Sasha kept a very similar body type, and nothing which would throw her jumps off much. I expect the same for Julia. She will retain a nice petite frame, and has probably already experienced most of her significant growth, and with her wonderful rotation and small frame will retain her jump consistency (just as Sasha retained and even improved hers over the years, was simply never great to begin with).
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Yes I agree. I have also said she reminds me in nearly every conceivable way, except for MUCH better jump technique, jump quality, jump difficulty (anything jump related) and much better basic skating, edge quality, and speed to a young Sasha Cohen (keep in mind Sasha with better jumps and basics and same everything else would have dominated, won 2 Olympics, won 3 or more Worlds, would have dominated Kwan, been best skater ever today, etc..) and Sasha kept a very similar body type, and nothing which would throw her jumps off much. I expect the same for Julia. She will retain a nice petite frame, and has probably already experienced most of her significant growth, and with her wonderful rotation and small frame will retain her jump consistency (just as Sasha retained and even improved hers over the years, was simply never great to begin with).

Spot-on about her jumps. More height (like Sotnikova) would be ideal, but Julia already rotates with blinding speed. That's another reason why I've been so impressed with her--despite her quick attack of the jumping elements, she still manages to make them look elegant and dainty.
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
I would prefer her choreography if it wasn't "And then my leg goes here, and then my leg goes here," truthfully. I also wonder if the Russian Federation will push her as the number one next season given how little senior experience she'll actually have.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
I would prefer her choreography if it wasn't "And then my leg goes here, and then my leg goes here," truthfully. I also wonder if the Russian Federation will push her as the number one next season given how little senior experience she'll actually have.

Unless Sotnikova or Elizaveta atleast medals at Worlds this year (and I dont think they will), I dont think they will have much choice but to push her as their #1.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Then the World has ended.

:laugh:

Leonova lacks consistency and reliability, and will meet with great opposition from the other Russians as well as the Americans and Japanese. I would be very, very surprised to see her on the podium again. I don't know about Julia making the Worlds podium, but Elizaveta and Adelina have moderately high chances of getting into the top six.

While I have the thought, does anyone know how many skaters Russia will be sending to Worlds this season? (Never mind, I just checked. They get three spots. I still imagine they'll send Leonova, so one or more of the younger girls will be missing out.)
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Leonova capatilized on the poor level of skating at the 2011 and 2012 Worlds, as did many others. Even her best skating wont be able to cope with a stronger field which we will see in 2013 and 2014, and I doubt she will be able to duplicate yet another near flawless competition at Worlds given that as you said she isnt that consistent a skater to begin with. Worlds last year was a poor competition, she skated her best, and some still think she was gifted silver over Suzuki (not exactly a huge star who is likely to be a big factor by 2014 either) with a major mistake in both programs, and Wagner with a poor short program and not as good a long program as she usually does.

I wouldnt count her out of possibly getting the 3rd spot for the 2014 Olympic team per say, but I doubt she will be a medal contender in Sochi.
 
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