She is!Originally Posted by pangtongfan
She is!
What I find most ridiculous is that people say if she gets taller she will lose the jumps. Julia has gotten taller, by a lot. I will definitely admit that is not the same as experiencing growth associated with puberty, and puberty may give her problems. However, Julia gets a lot taller every year. It hasn't hurt her yet. As someone else already said she has grown at least 7cm since the start of last season; IIRC she grew even more the season before. Go watch her Russian Nationals performance from 2010, 2011, and then Nebelhorn this year. It is obvious, just from looking, that she grew a LOT during all of these time periods.
Yes I agree. I have also said she reminds me in nearly every conceivable way, except for MUCH better jump technique, jump quality, jump difficulty (anything jump related) and much better basic skating, edge quality, and speed to a young Sasha Cohen (keep in mind Sasha with better jumps and basics and same everything else would have dominated, won 2 Olympics, won 3 or more Worlds, would have dominated Kwan, been best skater ever today, etc..) and Sasha kept a very similar body type, and nothing which would throw her jumps off much. I expect the same for Julia. She will retain a nice petite frame, and has probably already experienced most of her significant growth, and with her wonderful rotation and small frame will retain her jump consistency (just as Sasha retained and even improved hers over the years, was simply never great to begin with).
Spot-on about her jumps. More height (like Sotnikova) would be ideal, but Julia already rotates with blinding speed. That's another reason why I've been so impressed with her--despite her quick attack of the jumping elements, she still manages to make them look elegant and dainty.
I would prefer her choreography if it wasn't "And then my leg goes here, and then my leg goes here," truthfully. I also wonder if the Russian Federation will push her as the number one next season given how little senior experience she'll actually have.
Unless Sotnikova or Elizaveta atleast medals at Worlds this year (and I dont think they will), I dont think they will have much choice but to push her as their #1.
What if Leonova medals again?
Then the World has ended.
Leonova lacks consistency and reliability, and will meet with great opposition from the other Russians as well as the Americans and Japanese. I would be very, very surprised to see her on the podium again. I don't know about Julia making the Worlds podium, but Elizaveta and Adelina have moderately high chances of getting into the top six.
While I have the thought, does anyone know how many skaters Russia will be sending to Worlds this season? (Never mind, I just checked. They get three spots. I still imagine they'll send Leonova, so one or more of the younger girls will be missing out.)
Leonova capatilized on the poor level of skating at the 2011 and 2012 Worlds, as did many others. Even her best skating wont be able to cope with a stronger field which we will see in 2013 and 2014, and I doubt she will be able to duplicate yet another near flawless competition at Worlds given that as you said she isnt that consistent a skater to begin with. Worlds last year was a poor competition, she skated her best, and some still think she was gifted silver over Suzuki (not exactly a huge star who is likely to be a big factor by 2014 either) with a major mistake in both programs, and Wagner with a poor short program and not as good a long program as she usually does.
I wouldnt count her out of possibly getting the 3rd spot for the 2014 Olympic team per say, but I doubt she will be a medal contender in Sochi.
That's what the Mayans meant!
ForeverFish, Lipnitskaia isn't eligible for this season's worlds, so I imagine Sotnikova, Leonova and Tuktamisheva will be the trio. Leonova, imo, is in a similar position that Wier was in the pre-Olympic/Olympic seasons. The federation will dump her if they get the chance, but she might not let them.
Any Russian who medals at Worlds this year is pretty safe to make the Olympic team next year IMO. I cant think of any country in skating history who left a reigning World medalist off their Olympic team, and there have been stronger skating teams than even the 2014 Russian Olympic ladies team will be. That is unless they somehow sweep the podium at Worlds, in which case I predict one will still be bumped off to make room for Julia L. barring a major collapse or growth spurt for her. So if 2 Russians somehow make the podium at Worlds this year (very unlikely IMO), the one who didnt make it is pretty much screwed going into next season as far as the Olympics goes already.
Isn't she? That's a shame, but at the same time, I feel that she'd be in over her head at that level. She can use the reprieve to develop her style and artistry more--looks like her first huge international experience could be the Sochi Olympics. Looks like we have our Russian trio then. I predict Liza will finish first of the three, followed by Adelina, then Alena.
Leonova will get bumped, if any. Adelina and Elizaveta have already stunned with their talent and are only plowing full-steam ahead. I also think they'll both finish ahead of Alena at Worlds, even if they don't make the podium. Of the three, Liza has the best chance of medaling.
Coming from someone talking about Chan and his marks the way you do seems a little funny. As if she would be the first case to get higher PCS than she deserves, and that's just whats happening here.
So you want to tell me Julia has huge and powerful jumps? I wouldn't even call that that absurd, if it wasn't for that Axel.
And you don't see how she just skates right through her music, like she wouldn't be listening to it at all? Huh.
The jugdes love consistency, and maybe that's another thing pushing her PCS. But I don't really care why or how - the way she skates now, she shouldn't get PCS in the same range as some of the veterans like Ashley, Akiko or Mao. And given how young she is, that's just fine.
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