2012 Cup of China Mens Short Program

[Mrs. P]

It always sounds a little ridiculous if the US men field is compared to the japanes one. Japan has more than 3 medal contenders, america has hardly one... I doubt any american man can challenge the japanese top 3 with at least solid skates - and it's debateable for Oda and by now even Machida too. The only real exception would be a clean Jeremy, but I still don't really see him beating Dai, Yuzuru or Kozuka. And even moreso, it sadly nearly never happens.

Also consider that so far Machida, who finished fourth at Japanese nationals last year, has already beat the U.S. champion and pewter medalist and so far is in front of the U.S. silver medalist.

ETA: I also want to gush at Machida's awesome 3A. That jump is a beaut! He earned 2.14 in GOE for it here.

ETA2: Yes Daisuke also received 2.14 in GOE, but I'm just discovering the beauty of Machida's.

[Bluebonnet]

Hmmmmm, looks like every skater should start to eat sushi and drink bottled water shipped from Japan.

70.86 from Song is not good. But he might still has a chance to be on the podium. What happened to Brian Joubert? He certainly had pulled out from a desastrous SP many times before. Don't know if he could this time?

[Tinymavy15]

Dai's program is good, but like others have said, nothing special for him. As long as he brings out the top of the pops next year that's fine.
Adam--what the ____ is Rafael up to? The costume, hair, music all seem like something that should have died with the 90s. I want the curls and chamber music and flowy costumes back. Why change a good thing?

[doctor2014]

ETA: I also want to gush at Machida's awesome 3A. That jump is a beaut! He earned 2.14 in GOE for it here.

ETA2: Yes Daisuke also received 2.14 in GOE, but I'm just discovering the beauty of Machida's.

But Daisuke has difficult footwork going into his 3A, while Machida has no footwork into his 3A. Machida is not capable of doing Dai’s footwork into his 3A, or he would not be able to land it. I really think Machida is overmarked here in his GOE and PCS. What Dai does is so much more difficult than Machida.

Also, I respect Daisuke for always going for the quad. He would have gotten more points without the 4T, but he still went for it. Machida is the only Japanese man who’s not attempting a quad in the short program, and his program is the easiest one in terms of transitions compared to Hanyu’s, Daisuke’s, Oda’s, and Kozuka’s programs. But his PCS is similar to Kozuka’s and higher than Oda’s. I don’t think this is right.

[draqq]

Hmmmmm, looks like every skater should start to eat sushi and drink bottled water shipped from Japan.

70.86 from Song is not good. But he might still has a chance to be on the podium. What happened to Brian Joubert? He certainly had pulled out from a desastrous SP many times before. Don't know if he could this time?

Speaking of which, I was suspicious of the water bottles in the kiss & cry. Were they Fuji water bottles? If so... it's a CONSPIRACY!

[draqq]

But Daisuke has difficult footwork going into his 3A, while Machida has no footwork into his 3A. Machida is not capable of doing Dai’s footwork into his 3A, or he would not be able to land it. I really think Machida is overmarked here in his GOE and PCS. What Dai does is so much more difficult than Machida.

Also, I respect Daisuke for always going for the quad. He would have gotten more points without the 4T, but he still went for it. Machida is the only Japanese man who’s not attempting a quad in the short program, and his program is the easiest one in terms of transitions compared to Hanyu’s, Daisuke’s, Oda’s, and Kozuka’s programs. But his PCS is similar to Kozuka’s and higher than Oda’s. I don’t think this is right.

Difficult steps aren't a requirement for higher GOEs, though it does contribute. I think a +2 GOE is correct here, with the height, ice coverage, and superior flow out on the landing edge. As for PCS, I do think he was slightly overmarked, but not by so much. If I were a judge, I would reward him for choosing a song that hasn't been used before and is of a rare genre, and then interpreting it strongly with both strong movements and subtle ones; he has a clear but distinct vision on the ice, which itself is amazing (more here than in his LP).

[Mrs. P]

But Daisuke has difficult footwork going into his 3A, while Machida has no footwork into his 3A. Machida is not capable of doing Dai’s footwork into his 3A, or he would not be able to land it. I really think Machida is overmarked here in his GOE and PCS. What Dai does is so much more difficult than Machida.

Also, I respect Daisuke for always going for the quad. He would have gotten more points without the 4T, but he still went for it. Machida is the only Japanese man who’s not attempting a quad in the short program, and his program is the easiest one in terms of transitions compared to Hanyu’s, Daisuke’s, Oda’s, and Kozuka’s programs. But his PCS is similar to Kozuka’s and higher than Oda’s. I don’t think this is right.

I agree regarding transitions, but he has other qualities (great choreography, performance, interpretation) that are great. And indeed, if you look at the components, his performance, interpretation and choreography were higher than his skating skills and transitions. He scored in the mid 7s in transition, high 7s in skating skills, interpretation and choreography and low 8s for performance. I don't see how that's over the top.

And Daisuke scored 3.57 points higher than Machida, or an average of .71 per component, so the judges certainly acknowledge that Daisuke is far superior.

And at SKAM, Kozuka scored 2.62 points higher in PCS than Machida. And Hanyu scored more than six points higher. If anything Kozuka was underscored rather than Machida being overscored.

Oda was underscored at Skate Canada due to his relative competition there, namely Patrick Chan. Machida stands out more here, hence the higher score. I would have Oda with higher PCS and I think face to face, so would the judges. Just difficult to compare Machida's PCS scores at two competitions where he stands out to Oda, who had to deal with Chan and Fernandez, not to mention the obvious fact it was his first competition in about a year.

So I guess I'm not sure at what is up for debate here?


ETA: Kozuka, similar to Oda, was underscored at SKAM due to the fact he was competing against some key competitors, his countryman Hanyu and Jeremy Abbott. Machida's main competition is Daisuke at Cup of China. Weaker field makes it easier of judges to be more compelled to score Machida higher (but again, he was nowhere near Daisuke ) relative to other competitors.

Hence I don't think it makes much sense either to compare Kozuka's SKAM score to Machida's score here; it's apples and oranges. I think Kozuka would score much higher in PCS at his next competition as well.

[demarinis5]

I hope the Men FS is better than the SP. A lot of errors from the men today. Machida was great. Dai's program was good but he was not at his best today. He said that
there were a lot of changes made to the choreography (ya think) and he has not had time to practice, hence the mistakes.

[doctor2014]

Difficult steps aren't a requirement for higher GOEs, though it does contribute. I think a +2 GOE is correct here, with the height, ice coverage, and superior flow out on the landing edge. As for PCS, I do think he was slightly overmarked, but not by so much. If I were a judge, I would reward for choosing a song that is hasn't been used before and of a rare genre, and then interpreting it strongly with both strong movements and subtle ones; he has a clear but distinct vision on the ice, which itself is amazing (more here than in his LP).

But it’s not like Daisuke’s 3A has no ice coverage and no flow. His 3A also has good flow and ice coverage, as well as difficult footwork into it. Machida has a little more ice coverage and height, but it’s just too easy compared to Daisuke’s 3A. The quality and difficulty should both be considered. If Machida gets a +2.14 GOE for good quality alone then Daisuke should get an even higher GOE, like +2.29 or +2.43, for good quality and difficulty.

I would also reward choosing an original song. Kudos to Lambiel the choreographer. But I don’t think Machida has strong interpretation. His interpretation is quite over the top, and his movement a little stiff. He needs to learn how to dance. His music choice and choreography are better than Daisuke’s, but the interpretation is just so much worse. Daisuke made the generic choreography and annoying music interesting, while Machida made the interesting choreography a little boring.

Oda was underscored at Skate Canada due to his relative competition there, namely Patrick Chan. Machida stands out more here, hence the higher score. I would have Oda with higher PCS and I think face to face, so would the judges. Just difficult to compare Machida's PCS scores at two competitions where he stands out to Oda, who had to deal with Chan and Fernandez, not to mention the obvious fact it was his first competition in about a year.

Hence I don't think it makes much sense either to compare Kozuka's SKAM score to Machida's score here; it's apples and oranges. I think Kozuka would score much higher in PCS at his next competition as well.

Ok, if they skate face to face at the same competition, then Machida’s PCS should be lower than Kozuka’s and Oda’s PCS.

[Mrs. P]

I would also reward choosing an original song. Kudos to Lambiel the choreographer. But I don’t think Machida has strong interpretation. His interpretation is quite over the top, and his movement a little stiff. He needs to learn how to dance. His music choice and choreography are better than Daisuke’s, but the interpretation is just so much worse. Daisuke made the generic choreography and annoying music interesting, while Machida made the interesting choreography a little boring.

Ok, if they skate face to face at the same competition, then Machida’s PCS should be lower than Kozuka’s and Oda’s PCS.

Guess I don't really agree with his interpretation being boring or stiff. The GS folks and I who were at SKAM, for the most part, were pretty impressed with his SP. The audience at SKAM were quite impressed giving him a very generous ovation, probably the best out of the first group he skated in.

Which brings me to another point. At SKAM, he was 4th out of 10 skaters, with some major players Brenzia (2011 SKAM champion), Abbott, Hanyu, Kozuka and Verner in the next group. Here he was 8th out of 9, with the only standout skater being Daisuke and Brian Joubert and to a lesser extent, Rippon and Song. So it certainly makes sense that he would stand out more here and get higher PCS scores.

I think it will be interesting when they're all face to face at Japanese nationals.

[3T3T]

I found Dai's short a bit disappointing, really impressed with Machida, it was my favourite programme. I think the judges were a bit harsh on Voronov, I think he should be a bit higher, were his PCS a bit low? Not a fan of Rippons music but I do like his style, has he ever had a quad? The 3A doesn't seem that consistent.

[draqq]

But it’s not like Daisuke’s 3A has no ice coverage and no flow. His 3A also has good flow and ice coverage, as well as difficult footwork into it. Machida has a little more ice coverage and height, but it’s just too easy compared to Daisuke’s 3A. The quality and difficulty should both be considered. If Machida gets a +2.14 GOE for good quality alone then Daisuke should get an even higher GOE, like +2.29 or +2.43, for good quality and difficulty.

I would also reward choosing an original song. Kudos to Lambiel the choreographer. But I don’t think Machida has strong interpretation. His interpretation is quite over the top, and his movement a little stiff. He needs to learn how to dance. His music choice and choreography are better than Daisuke’s, but the interpretation is just so much worse. Daisuke made the generic choreography and annoying music interesting, while Machida made the interesting choreography a little boring.

Ok, if they skate face to face at the same competition, then Machida’s PCS should be lower than Kozuka’s and Oda’s PCS.

But remember, the judges can award decimal places. Each individual judge can only give out a +2 or +3, and since most of them don't think it deserves a +3, it got a +2. (If I would give a +3 on a 3A, it would be on that crazy entrance Hanyu does.) Also, I don't think it's worth overly debating on the minute details of tenths of a point, though I think Daisuke's difficult entrance was offset by the slightly labored landing.

I would also disagree with the interpretation. I thought he elongated certain areas and hit certain areas where the music dictated. His phrasing, particularly in the footwork sequence, was well-timed. If I had any gripes, it's that I think he could take some hip-hop classes to work on his hits so that it comes from his core, but that's why he didn't get 8s. Personally, I would only give an 81.5 or so for his performance, but an 83.5 isn't that far off. I'll spare the judges some leeway.

[Art&Sport]

It always sounds a little ridiculous if the US men field is compared to the japanes one. Japan has more than 3 medal contenders, america has hardly one... I doubt any american man can challenge the japanese top 3 with at least solid skates - and it's debateable for Oda and by now even Machida too. The only real exception would be a clean Jeremy, but I still don't really see him beating Dai, Yuzuru or Kozuka. And even moreso, it sadly nearly never happens.

This will be a two-part post:

Yeah clearly the Japanese top five are very strong and have beaten top American guys this season, with scores in the 80s, and mid-90s in the case of Hanyu. Does Machida have a reliable quad? I don't believe he has one in his sp. So I guess those attempting them in their sp should think more along the lines of just skate super clean with a great program. I think Machida has well-structured programs and interesting music, but he's NOT the best interpretive or mature all-around skater out there. Nor does he have great lines, but granted he uses every ounce of what he's got, he has good technique on his jumps and he skates with a lot of confidence which the judges absolutely love. His sp is very watchable, but I'm less enamored of his fp (inspired by Evan's Firebird?), but yes Machida gives a good interpretation in his fp utilizing his own budding style.

Clearly you dis Jeremy because Jeremy unfortunately has not proven he can consistently be a strong skater in competitive situations. However, with the amazing talent Jeremy possesses (obviously he can land beautiful quads when he's on, and many try to copy his smooth and original moves) if he ever put it altogether consistently and gave judges enough faith in him in competitive situations, Jeremy would be wiping the field on a regular basis and contending for the podium with Chan, Dai and all comers.

Sure, I know, woulda, coulda, shoulda. In Jeremy's case, his legacy may end up being that everyone was inspired by and tried to emulate his moves, and his program ideas. Jeremy's the bomb when he's on. So is Dai (but Dai is also a World champion and a proven consistent competitor). In figure skating you get extra points for reputation and the Japanese guys have loads of it, not to mention a strong federation backed by the huge popularity of figure skating in Japan. This means that Japanese skaters have more resources available to them for top-notch training -- whatever they need to be their best.

[Art&Sport]

It always sounds a little ridiculous if the US men field is compared to the japanes one. Japan has more than 3 medal contenders, america has hardly one... I doubt any american man can challenge the japanese top 3 with at least solid skates - and it's debateable for Oda and by now even Machida too. The only real exception would be a clean Jeremy, but I still don't really see him beating Dai, Yuzuru or Kozuka. And even moreso, it sadly nearly never happens.

American men are obviously hampered by their depth of talent, and also clearly by their lack of consistent competitiveness and international reputation, need for consistency on quads, the lack of 100% U.S. fed politiking power, and the lack of widespread popularity of fs in the U.S. That doesn't mean that any one of Jeremy, Richard, Johnny, Evan, Adam, Ross don't have the skills and capability to at least consistently be competitive with Kozuka, Machida, Mura, Oda and even Hanyu overall when Hanyu runs out of gas. You can laugh re Johnny and Evan because they are old veterans and haven't competed in two years, but I think they can still give the Japanese guys a run for their money, especially in the team event (if of course they even make the U.S. team for Sochi).

I have to laugh myself re the fact that at times many guys in the men's field have seemed to emulate the best of what Johnny put out there for years (dynamite technique on his 3-axel, unique costumes, smooth graceful skating with great posture and ride out on his jumps, expressive arms and trademark moves). One of the things Johnny trended which I'm less enamored of is the way skaters a la Oksana Baiul (where Johnny got it from) travel around center ice in circles for endless moments prior to starting their programs.

One big problem for the U.S. men (especially younger guys like Messing, Armin and even Joshua and Jason) is that there are so many good skaters and older U. S. guys staying in the senior eligible ranks, that the younger U.S. guys have few to no opportunities to get out there consistently in front of senior international judges and gain the experience and confidence that Machida and Mura are acquiring. Joshua right now could compete at the same or even higher level of Machida and gain the invaluable experience that Machida is obtaining, but NO, due to U.S. men's depth, Joshua has to stay back in Juniors another year. Therefore, Josh won't have the same advantages that Machida will have post-2014 in terms of recognition and competitive experience in front of senior international judges. Right now, even a much improved Messing IMHO is very competitive with Machida. But same story, the odds are solidly against Messing having the opportunity to even make the U.S. men's team going to 2013 Worlds. The essence of what I said originally is absolutely true: There are at least six top viable, experienced U.S. men candidates vying for 2 World team spots (not even including Messing, Armin, Aaron, Razzano and Carriere -- which can lead to their stagnation and lack of competitive confidence). The Japanese men have a lot more international experience, competitiveness, reputation and clout (but not necessarily more talent across the board), plus they have six top guys vying for 3 spots (which will likely go to Dai, Hanyu and Kozuka). Machida, Mura and Oda at least have the consolation prize of competing and winning medals (in the case of Machida and Oda) on the senior GP circuit.

So go ahead, continue laughing at and dissing the American guys all you wish, and uber the loveable and extremely talented Japanese Yank beaters to your heart's content. When U.S. Nationals rolls around, everyone who can will be watching the deep U.S. men's field, including their strongest competitors who yeah all told don't have much to worry about from the U.S. men on competitive ice.

[Kalina]

I think it will be interesting when they're all face to face at Japanese nationals.

PCS will determine the podium that JSF desires. Unless there's some really major bombing.