Can Chan beat Hanyu if both skate their best?
Next up for Yuzuru Hanyu is the NHK Trophy in a couple of weeks. I think that if he skates as well as he did in the Skate America SP in both the SP and FS at NHK, he has the potential to break Chan's world record FS score of 187.96 and combined score of 280.98 (both set at the 2011 world championships). In my view, Hanyu is the most likely skater to break 300 as an ISU recognized score (Chan's 302.14 at 2012 Canadian Nationals is not recognized by the ISU), and I think he is the most talented male singles skater since Alexei Yagudin. Moreover, even if Chan were to be at his absolute best and skate completely clean, I think he simply cannot beat Hanyu at his best (also skating completely clean). Hanyu is now too good for him.
Nevertheless, what do you think? Could Patrick Chan at his best beat Yuzuru Hanyu at his best (both skating clean)?
Last edited by Mao88; 11-11-2012 at 03:17 PM.
the Golden Era
Yuzuru is loved and much liked
Yuzuru is continually improving, a child prodigy to a superstar in the making, If Yuzuru fulfills his full potential, I don't even think Chan would be half as good as Yuzuru
that is how good Hanyu is, very rarely am I impressed, Yuzuru's skating is very special and is awesomeness, sorry for being a bit uber of the words being used, but just my 2 cents
On TES, Hanyu would probably win. Maxed-out Hanyu has 2 quads (including a 4S), 2 3As in his LP (including a 3A-3T combo in the second half). On the other hand, Chan has 4T-3T, 4T but only 1 3A. Also, Hanyu on a good day is a strong spinner and scores well on footwork as well.
However, I'm not so sure about PCS.
Orser has planned an ambitious layout for Yuzuru and it's extended to Javier as well -- that guy's planned content is downright crazy -- he has three quads (2 4T + 4S) and a 4T-2T in the second half of that program! At SC he did two quads and six triples! Whew!!
So I agree with evangeline that Yuzuru, on a good day, could out TES Chan, but it's hard to say how they would compare as far as PCS....The same goes for Javier as well.
It could come down to politics. Japanese fed might want Hanyu to stick around until at least 2018, and if he were to win Worlds and the Olympics, he might not want to, so I could see his PCS getting held down a bit compared to Chan so that, if they both were to skate clean, Chan would come out on top due to PCS. The way I see it Chan's time is now, or might have really been the past 2 seasons, so I see Sochi as the time for Chan to win, show he's dominant, then retire, and the post-Sochi era as the time for Hanyu, and Javi, to emerge as the top guns and the stage to shift a whole lot as I expect we'll see a lot of retirements post 2014 - Takahashi, Joubert, Lysacek, Weir, Abbott, Oda, Plushenko, Verner, Voronov, Menshov almost certainly, then maybe some guys from among the likes of Brezina, Reynolds, Rippon, Dornbush, Mahbanoozadeh, Miner, Amodio, etc. depending on who goes to and/or skates well at the Olympics. Plus Worlds this year are in Canada so a clean Chan I'm almost sure would win. And even though Hanyu's jumps and spins are better Chan still gets huge GOEs anyways. Sochi is more up in the air but I think Chan is still the guy being chased at this point.
I think it would be more accurate to say
"Can Yuzuru Hanyu beat Patrick Chan if both skate at their best? "
Originally Posted by silverlake22
I agree about wanting Hanyu to stick around till 2018 BUT the fact is that its very likely men's is Japan's best shot at an Olympic Gold in skating. And if Hanyu emerges as the most consistent likely of the guys to perform well than he may get their support for that alone. Now Kozuka/Dai doing it would be better for them.