Can Chan beat Hanyu if both skate their best?

[Mao88]

Next up for Yuzuru Hanyu is the NHK Trophy in a couple of weeks. I think that if he skates as well as he did in the Skate America SP in both the SP and FS at NHK, he has the potential to break Chan's world record FS score of 187.96 and combined score of 280.98 (both set at the 2011 world championships). In my view, Hanyu is the most likely skater to break 300 as an ISU recognized score (Chan's 302.14 at 2012 Canadian Nationals is not recognized by the ISU), and I think he is the most talented male singles skater since Alexei Yagudin. Moreover, even if Chan were to be at his absolute best and skate completely clean, I think he simply cannot beat Hanyu at his best (also skating completely clean). Hanyu is now too good for him.

Nevertheless, what do you think? Could Patrick Chan at his best beat Yuzuru Hanyu at his best (both skating clean)?

[sky_fly20]

Yuzuru is loved and much liked
Yuzuru is continually improving, a child prodigy to a superstar in the making, If Yuzuru fulfills his full potential, I don't even think Chan would be half as good as Yuzuru
that is how good Hanyu is, very rarely am I impressed, Yuzuru's skating is very special and is awesomeness, sorry for being a bit uber of the words being used, but just my 2 cents

[evangeline]

On TES, Hanyu would probably win. Maxed-out Hanyu has 2 quads (including a 4S), 2 3As in his LP (including a 3A-3T combo in the second half). On the other hand, Chan has 4T-3T, 4T but only 1 3A. Also, Hanyu on a good day is a strong spinner and scores well on footwork as well.

However, I'm not so sure about PCS.

[Mrs. P]

Orser has planned an ambitious layout for Yuzuru and it's extended to Javier as well -- that guy's planned content is downright crazy -- he has three quads (2 4T + 4S) and a 4T-2T in the second half of that program! At SC he did two quads and six triples! Whew!!

So I agree with evangeline that Yuzuru, on a good day, could out TES Chan, but it's hard to say how they would compare as far as PCS....The same goes for Javier as well.

[silverlake22]

It could come down to politics. Japanese fed might want Hanyu to stick around until at least 2018, and if he were to win Worlds and the Olympics, he might not want to, so I could see his PCS getting held down a bit compared to Chan so that, if they both were to skate clean, Chan would come out on top due to PCS. The way I see it Chan's time is now, or might have really been the past 2 seasons, so I see Sochi as the time for Chan to win, show he's dominant, then retire, and the post-Sochi era as the time for Hanyu, and Javi, to emerge as the top guns and the stage to shift a whole lot as I expect we'll see a lot of retirements post 2014 - Takahashi, Joubert, Lysacek, Weir, Abbott, Oda, Plushenko, Verner, Voronov, Menshov almost certainly, then maybe some guys from among the likes of Brezina, Reynolds, Rippon, Dornbush, Mahbanoozadeh, Miner, Amodio, etc. depending on who goes to and/or skates well at the Olympics. Plus Worlds this year are in Canada so a clean Chan I'm almost sure would win. And even though Hanyu's jumps and spins are better Chan still gets huge GOEs anyways. Sochi is more up in the air but I think Chan is still the guy being chased at this point.

[Tommmy]

I think it would be more accurate to say
"Can Yuzuru Hanyu beat Patrick Chan if both skate at their best? "

[bekalc]

It could come down to politics. Japanese fed might want Hanyu to stick around until at least 2018, and if he were to win Worlds and the Olympics, he might not want to, so I could see his PCS getting held down a bit compared to Chan so that, if they both were to skate clean, Chan would come out on top due to PCS. The way I see it Chan's time is now, or might have really been the past 2 seasons, so I see Sochi as the time for Chan to win, show he's dominant, then retire, and the post-Sochi era as the time for Hanyu, and Javi, to emerge as the top guns and the stage to shift a whole lot as I expect we'll see a lot of retirements post 2014 - Takahashi, Joubert, Lysacek, Weir, Abbott, Oda, Plushenko, Verner, Voronov, Menshov almost certainly, then maybe some guys from among the likes of Brezina, Reynolds, Rippon, Dornbush, Mahbanoozadeh, Miner, Amodio, etc. depending on who goes to and/or skates well at the Olympics. Plus Worlds this year are in Canada so a clean Chan I'm almost sure would win. And even though Hanyu's jumps and spins are better Chan still gets huge GOEs anyways. Sochi is more up in the air but I think Chan is still the guy being chased at this point.

I agree about wanting Hanyu to stick around till 2018 BUT the fact is that its very likely men's is Japan's best shot at an Olympic Gold in skating. And if Hanyu emerges as the most consistent likely of the guys to perform well than he may get their support for that alone. Now Kozuka/Dai doing it would be better for them.

[ImaginaryPogue]

I'd be surprised if Chan and Hanyu both skated their absolute best and Chan won.

[FTnoona]

I think it would be more accurate to say
"Can Yuzuru Hanyu beat Patrick Chan if both skate at their best? "

I'd have to agree with Tommmy.
Hanyu's defintely got a lot of potential, but with his current FS, I think he'll run out of gas before he can deliver a performance that can beat a clean Chan. But from the way Hanyu's PCS have increased, I think if he ever skates two clean programs, he might make it tough for Chan (I think more so than a clean Takahashi). It's not like Chan's only strength when he skates two clean programs is going to be his PCS. He'll deliver high TES too. Hanyu's PCS at CoC 2011 was 36.44 and SA 2012 was 43.36, both of those SPs were clean (PCS are comparable season by season right?? if not fooey....). If JFS really wants to hold him back on PCS, I think the first glance of it will be at NHK when he goes up against Takahashi. I would love to see Hanyu as a world and olympic champion someday, but why expect so much from him so soon?

[willywonka]

Yuzuru Hanyu at his best can beat anyone. Patrick Chan, Daisuke Takahito, Evgeni Plushenko, Evan Lysaceck, Jeremy Abbot, Joshua Farris, Jason Brown are no match to Prince Yuzuru! He's currently the BEST! And he's only 18.

[blue_idealist]

I think Chan would still win on skating skills even if they both skated clean/their best..

[os168]

Rhetorical question deserve a rhetorical answer: Yes maybe in Canada and China. Not likely in Japan and Russia. Neutral in USA?
And NOT if the impression of either Patrick or Hanyu was over marked at their last competition. (I'd argue Hanyu's PCS was overly generous at his last LP coming off a stunning SP WR. Judge impression recaliberation are to be expected at his next outing if he crash and burn again, look at what happened with Kozuka's PCS)

I'd rate Chan a better overall skater still TODAY who has show admirable growth in refining his artistry in the way it feels organic and natural. I like the fact he is unhurried about it and makes it an evolving process, who seems to have learnt to be more strategic (the ladies have been doing it for past 2 years, so why not the men?). He is pure skating and he is beautiful to watch when he doesn't break that spell through one of his 'uh-ohs!'. I have said before, when Patrick is ON, it is almost like observing a Taichi master at work controlling the elements with gentle finesse and apparent effortlessness that is really quite a pleasure and amazing to watch. I'd love him to become 3rd time world champion this year because for the first time I really like his suite of programs that feels more distinctively and uniquely Patrick than before.

Patrick should takes advantage of reckless youth of Hanyu who tends to take more bites than he can chew, together with his asthma problems usually makes his FS a big challenge. Certainly the efforts are always shown more visibly in his performance than not. Hanyu's high risk and high reward approach makes him exciting to watch and root for, but without showing better consistency and security in himself, judges impressions are going to matter. Despite just breaking the SP record through COP number crunching, I am just not a fan of the SP and that think he is trying too hard to fulfill someone else's idea of versatility instead of coming from him. It shows in the performance aspect of the program. Also as long as Daisuke are also at his best in the same competition (with a set of program that worth his talent unlike this year), I'd be very surprised Hanyu would get the full PCS support he'd need to beat Patrick at his best.

[Jammers]

Sorry while i'm not the biggest Chan fan Patrick has superior skating skills compared to Hanyu and also has those quads also.

[l'etoile]

I think Chan would still win on skating skills even if they both skated clean/their best..

Sorry while i'm not the biggest Chan fan Patrick has superior skating skills compared to Hanyu and also has those quads also.

THIS. PC is simply the best when it comes to skating skills and even if Yuzuru could become better at his SS than already he is at, I don't see him catch up with Patrick's.

[MaiKatze]

Funny I was just thinking about this yesterday. Well, I guess if anyone can beat Patrick it is Yuzuru. The judges seem to love Yuzuru and I think if he delivers a clean program his chances are high. But I will only believe it if I see it. I just cannot imagine it really happening at the moment.