Can Chan beat Hanyu if both skate their best?

[Niki2012]

Well, for Hanyu to compete in London Worlds against Patrick Chan, Hanyu has to actually earn a spot on the Japanese team first. There are 5 very strong Japanese men, each of them can make a case for a spot on the team. If Hanyu skates his FS like he did in SA, there is a very real chance he won't make it to the podium at the Japanese Nationals. If so, can he legitimately take the place of another Japanese man who finished higher at their Nationals? Say, Machida skated lights out and finished 2nd, like how he defeated Takahashi recently, while Kozuka won the title. Do you shaft whoever finished 3rd in favor of Hanyu? What if that person happens to be Dai? Would it be more legitimate if that person were Oda?

Hanyu’s spot at world is almost guaranteed. His miserable FS in SA still got higher PCS than both Oda and Machida who had a couple of jump mistakes but performed much better overall. Hanyu’s SP got 46 on the PCS, so if he skates with only a few mistakes, the judges will be ready to give him similar PCS. Only way that Oda and Machida win against him is that they skate perfectly with successful quads, and Hanyu repeats the SA FS performance. The chance is not zero, but quite small, unfortunately.

[doctor2014]

This bad decision by JFS may result in worst case that either one of them cannot go to a final. As the way JFS and garbage media are pushing Hanyu, I guess this unfortunate one can be Takahashi. He needs to get back his quad and performs perfectly to win against Judge`s favorite Hanyu.

Hanyu’s spot at world is almost guaranteed. His miserable FS in SA still got higher PCS than both Oda and Machida who had a couple of jump mistakes but performed much better overall. Hanyu’s SP got 46 on the PCS, so if he skates with only a few mistakes, the judges will be ready to give him similar PCS. Only way that Oda and Machida win against him is that they skate perfectly with successful quads, and Hanyu repeats the SA FS performance. The chance is not zero, but quite small, unfortunately.

Your posts are getting more and more ridiculous. Each time I see you you’re bashing Hanyu, and now you’re even making false number up to spread a rumor about him. At what competition did Hanyu get 46 in the PCS? Or maybe you’re the president of ISU or JSF that you scored him 46?

If you’re Daisuke’s fan and you’re worried that Hanyu will beat Daisuke at NHK, then I don’t think you should be this worried. As I replied you earlier in another thread, Daisuke always came back stronger than ever, especially at NHK. Remember last year he didn’t do well at SC and placed only 3rd there. Then he came back stronger than ever at NHK and beat a clean Kozuka by more than 10 points in the SP. Daisuke’s capable of achieving the same thing this year. And his silver at CoC means he has a better chance to get into GPF than last year, when he placed 3rd at SC. Also remember Dai’s meltdown at CoC had to do with his boot problem. I expect it to be resolved by NHK.

But if you talk about judges’ favorite at Japanese Nationals, that has never been Hanyu. On the contrary, the poor kid was quite lowballed at last year’s Japanese Nationals: almost all men and ladies got a PCS boost at the 2011 Japanese Nationals compared to their PCSs at international competitions last season. Hanyu was one of the few exceptions and he received lower PCS at the Japanese Nationals. Daisuke received 86.90 in PCS when he fell 3 times in the FS, and Kozuka received 81.50 when he fell once and missed his combo. Hanyu OTOH skated lights out and only received 79.00. So in your opinion, that was how the JSF treated their “favorite” Hanyu?

And do you remember that the technical panel changed Hanyu’s score hours after the SP to mark him below Machida and make Machida into the top 3? If anyone was favored then that must not have been Hanyu. One can argue that at the 2011 Japanese Nationals Daisuke was favored, Kozuka was favored, Machida was favored, Shoma Uno was favored, Ryuju Hino was favored, Asada was favored, Suzuki was favored, Kanako Murakami was favored, and the list goes on. But not Hanyu. If anything, Hanyu was plainly lowballed.

[let`s talk]

If Hanyu skates his FS like he did in SA, there is a very real chance he won't make it to the podium at the Japanese Nationals. If so, can he legitimately take the place of another Japanese man who finished higher at their Nationals?

Dear, you do have google. All your answers are there. The "legitimately" is what JSF decide. Their decisions are not based on J-Nationals results only.

[pangtongfan]

If marked fairly (always a huge if with Chan) Hanyu would win out on TES if both skate their best. He should get much higher GOE on his jumps and their non jump elements are comparable. However Chan should get the higher PCS if both skate perfectly at this point. Overall I would say in a fairly marked competition Chan would win with both skating cleanly, but should lose if he has even one fall.

[pangtongfan]

As for who goes to Worlds from Japan I am pretty sure Hanyu or Takahashi would be sent even if one misses the podium at Nationals. The Japanese federation considers more than the results of Nationals. Furthermore Japense Nationals like all countries is political, and the judges would make sure to keep both on the podium at Nationals no matter how bad one might skate. The rest are fighting for the remaining spot, likely to go to to Kozuka or Machida.

[pangtongfan]

I have no doubt that barring injury Hanyu should be able to beat Patrick in the future. But I think it will take Hanyu a couple of years at least to get his PCS to Patrick's level.

Hanyu's potential is immense because of his age and the level he is at. Quads at an early age can lead to severe injuries though and he will have to balance that off as he grows older.

For now if they both skate lights out it will be Patrick's to lose.

Chan will be retired after Sochi, so if Hanyu cant beat him by then he never will, unless they meet in pro competitions or cheesy pro ams someday.

[Niki2012]

Your posts are getting more and more ridiculous. Each time I see you you’re bashing Hanyu, and now you’re even making false number up to spread a rumor about him. At what competition did Hanyu get 46 in the PCS? Or maybe you’re the president of ISU or JSF that you scored him 46?

If you’re Daisuke’s fan and you’re worried that Hanyu will beat Daisuke at NHK, then I don’t think you should be this worried. As I replied you earlier in another thread, Daisuke always came back stronger than ever, especially at NHK. Remember last year he didn’t do well at SC and placed only 3rd there. Then he came back stronger than ever at NHK and beat a clean Kozuka by more than 10 points in the SP. Daisuke’s capable of achieving the same thing this year. And his silver at CoC means he has a better chance to get into GPF than last year, when he placed 3rd at SC. Also remember Dai’s meltdown at CoC had to do with his boot problem. I expect it to be resolved by NHK.

He only got 43. It was my mistake. I didn’t bash Hanyu. I just expressed my opinion that his score is inflated. I am not really a Takahashi’s fan… hahahaha. He isn’t my favorite anyway. Why did you think I am?

But if you talk about judges’ favorite at Japanese Nationals, that has never been Hanyu. On the contrary, the poor kid was quite lowballed at last year’s Japanese Nationals: almost all men and ladies got a PCS boost at the 2011 Japanese Nationals compared to their PCSs at international competitions last season. Hanyu was one of the few exceptions and he received lower PCS at the Japanese Nationals. Daisuke received 86.90 in PCS when he fell 3 times in the FS, and Kozuka received 81.50 when he fell once and missed his combo. Hanyu OTOH skated lights out and only received 79.00. So in your opinion, that was how the JSF treated their “favorite” Hanyu?

Only in your eyes, he skated lights out. Hanyu fell 3 times and visibly was out of gas and had no stamina left to do choreo step. 79 is way too high. I don’t think he has been low-balled at all. He is in fact JFS’s new favorite son. In last season, his PCS jumped from 74 in China to 83 in World. If he was low balled, his PCS wouldn’t have gone up that much.

And do you remember that the technical panel changed Hanyu’s score hours after the SP to mark him below Machida and make Machida into the top 3? If anyone was favored then that must not have been Hanyu. One can argue that at the 2011 Japanese Nationals Daisuke was favored, Kozuka was favored, Machida was favored, Shoma Uno was favored, Ryuju Hino was favored, Asada was favored, Suzuki was favored, Kanako Murakami was favored, and the list goes on. But not Hanyu. If anything, Hanyu was plainly lowballed.

They didn’t intentionally place him behind Machida. They just miscounted his scores. Math error, that's all.

[giulia95]

[QUOTE=Niki2012;680454]

Only in your eyes, he skated lights out. Hanyu fell 3 times and visibly was out of gas and had no stamina left to do choreo step. 79 is way too high.




are you so sure, really??

you better watch it:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXX7m...feature=relmfu

No falls ( no falls in the SP either) , beautiful 3A-3T-2T , final standing ovation....

poor little Romeo...

[doctor2014]

He only got 43. It was my mistake. I didn’t bash Hanyu. I just expressed my opinion that his score is inflated. I am not really a Takahashi’s fan… hahahaha. He isn’t my favorite anyway. Why did you think I am?
Only in your eyes, he skated lights out. Hanyu fell 3 times and visibly was out of gas and had no stamina left to do choreo step. 79 is way too high. I don’t think he has been low-balled at all. He is in fact JFS’s new favorite son.

I thought you like Daisuke because you expressed concern about him in your posts. Because I like him, I tried to tell you to not worry. But if you don’t like Dai, then fine. It doesn’t matter which skater you like, but it matters that you’re bashing Hanyu and you’re spreading rumors about him. He never got 46 on the PCS, but you made up that number in order to prove he’s “inflated.” When he skated lights out, you said he fell 3 times. Your posts keep getting continuously ridiculous.

[shine]

So Hanyu is a prodigy? Because he had the big jumps at a young age? Is that how we define skating prodigies?

[Buttercup]

So Hanyu is a prodigy? Because he had the big jumps at a young age? Is that how we define skating prodigies?

To some extent, yes. It's not easy to get a great 3A and two quads at any age, let alone have all that in your repertoire before the age of 18. But it's also because Hanyu has good and varied spins, some interesting and creative moves and transitional content in his programs, and a very good feel for music. It's not often you see a skater who is that young be so competitive when facing the very best in the world. I'm surprised you feel the need to question Hanyu's credentials; his talent seems so obvious.

[shine]

To some extent, yes. It's not easy to get a great 3A and two quads at any age, let alone have all that in your repertoire before the age of 18. But it's also because Hanyu has good and varied spins, some interesting and creative moves and transitional content in his programs, and a very good feel for music. It's not often you see a skater who is that young be so competitive when facing the very best in the world. I'm surprised you feel the need to question Hanyu's credentials; his talent seems so obvious.

I'm not questioning his credentials. But I get this vibe reading the forums that he's the biggest prodigy we've ever seen in skating history, which has me puzzled.

[Buttercup]

I'm not questioning his credentials. But I get this vibe reading the forums that he's the biggest prodigy we've ever seen in skating history, which has me puzzled.

I think he is one of the biggest, especially in men's skating (ladies can sometimes peak very young, as we know). I can't think of many skaters who were that good, that young - and he's still getting better! The closest I can think of is Plushenko, except of course Plushenko was not trained for the current system. Nathan Chen appears to be pretty special, too, but if he indeed has Osgood-Schlatter, that will definitely slow him down some.

[os168]

I think he is one of the biggest, especially in men's skating (ladies can sometimes peak very young, as we know). I can't think of many skaters who were that good, that young - and he's still getting better! The closest I can think of is Plushenko, except of course Plushenko was not trained for the current system. Nathan Chen appears to be preutty special, too, but if he indeed has Osgood-Schlatter, that will definitely slow him down some.

Hanyu is an prodigy for sure, just observe his progress since the beginning. Although it seems Patrick is pretty talented himself since very young, each are just amazing in their own ways. I really doubt world champions happen over night with good deal of talent to be harnessed later. Just look at Yuna and Mao.

I would put Julia and Liza in that category but I just love Karen Chen who's only a novice from the US who has an ability to make me smile watch her skating that reminded me skating can be so much fun. Can't wait to see how she get on in the future.

[Niki2012]

I thought you like Daisuke because you expressed concern about him in your posts. Because I like him, I tried to tell you to not worry. But if you don’t like Dai, then fine. It doesn’t matter which skater you like, but it matters that you’re bashing Hanyu and you’re spreading rumors about him. He never got 46 on the PCS, but you made up that number in order to prove he’s “inflated.” When he skated lights out, you said he fell 3 times. Your posts keep getting continuously ridiculous.

As for 79 on the PCS, I was talking about his fs performance in SA not World.
He did fall 3 times and it was indeed miserable performance.
Hanyu is remarkable skater for his age, but I think he is overscored.
He is still not in the top league in terms of his skating skill, body control, andchoreographic movement.
He does not have stamina to last to the end of program without losing speed.
No matter how you call me ridiculous, that is my opinion, and I will not change it until he proves me wrong.