Can Chan beat Hanyu if both skate their best?

[doctor2014]

But if you talk about judges’ favorite at Japanese Nationals, that has never been Hanyu. On the contrary, the poor kid was quite lowballed at last year’s Japanese Nationals: almost all men and ladies got a PCS boost at the 2011 Japanese Nationals compared to their PCSs at international competitions last season. Hanyu was one of the few exceptions and he received lower PCS at the Japanese Nationals. Daisuke received 86.90 in PCS when he fell 3 times in the FS, and Kozuka received 81.50 when he fell once and missed his combo. Hanyu OTOH skated lights out and only received 79.00. So in your opinion, that was how the JSF treated their “favorite” Hanyu?

Only in your eyes, he skated lights out. Hanyu fell 3 times and visibly was out of gas and had no stamina left to do choreo step. 79 is way too high.

As for 79 on the PCS, I was talking about his fs performance in SA not World.

What? Obviously I was talking about neither SA nor Worlds. I was talking about the 2011 Japanese Nationals, and I made that as clear as possible in my post #47. There should be no way for you to be mistaken and reply to me about Hanyu’s FS at SA.

Your posts are ridiculous not because you have an opinion. Almost all skaters have been called overscored or inflated by one or more posters on this board. Calling a skater overscored is not necessarily ridiculous. Your posts are ridiculous because you made false number up and spread rumors continuously. If you want to bash a skater, then at least get the facts straight.

[ciocio]

Can Yuzuru Hanyu beat Patrick Chan if both skate at their best?

No, he can´t.

[Jaana]

If both skate at their best I don´t think that Hanyu can beat Chan, not now and maybe not at the Olympics. Hanyu is not in his prime, yet. Besides, Hanyu has stamina problems because of his asthma, will that problem get better or worse in future? Hopefully better!

[lavender]

I'm not questioning his credentials. But I get this vibe reading the forums that he's the biggest prodigy we've ever seen in skating history, which has me puzzled.

I agree. I don't see him as a prodigy but if others do that's okay. I'm a more wait and see type.

[pangtongfan]

If both skate at their best I don´t think that Hanyu can beat Chan, not now and maybe not at the Olympics!

The key is Hanyu is the ONLY one who might have a chance to beat an even close to clean Chan, or even a small chance of winning if both skated their best. Who else would do it. Takahashi? No, not technically strong enough and doesnt get the PCS of Chan either (neither does Hanyu but is capable of beating Chan even at his best in TES perhaps). Fernandez? Definitely not at this point. Abbott? We will never find out for sure but defintiely no regardless. A returning skater like Lysacek or Plushenko? No chance in hell, both would need many falls from Chan to have a chance even with their best at this point.

[Ilvskating]

I think currently, if everybody, I mean EVERYBODY, not just Hanyu, skate clean and to their full potential of programs, Chan should win. I'm not sure for next year, if everybody else up their skating skills to Chan's level, Chan would be vulnerable, as his 3 axel is not stable, and he hasn't show his second or third type of quads yet.

For the current men's crop, I like Chan, Abbott, Javier and Song. I also like Dai as a person(like his ex this year, but don't like his stroking and jumps in general) , Hanyu and Kozuka's skating, and I have good will for Oda as he had missed so many opportunities because of poor math and bad luck.

[pangtongfan]

At the very least I think Hanyu can definitely beat Chan in a short program even if Chan skates perfectly. Hanyu's TES and huge GOE would push him over even a clean Chan in the SP.

[skateluvr]

Yes, changed my mind. Agree with above in SP. He can clearly kill any other guy in SP now it appears. LP Stamina issues? We'll see...

[pangtongfan]

My guess is if Chan skated a clean short program in an INTERNATIONAL (note I dont care about scores from Canadian Nationals which are beyond a joke) he would score 93ish and still lose to Hanyu who seems able to easily score over 95 as he has done it twice now. Chan would probably get the higher PCS, but Hanyu would win out based on greater GOEs. The LP I am not sure if that would be the case, but both skaters have alot of problems skating clean long programs ever anyway.

[wallylutz]

Yes, changed my mind. Agree with above in SP. He can clearly kill any other guy in SP now it appears. LP Stamina issues? We'll see...

I guess you changed your mind a little too early. Patrick Chan just out PCS Hanyu by like 13 points even though Hanyu was skating not just in front of his partisan home country crowd - but his hometown devastated by the tsunami. And Patrick Chan wasn't even skating in Canda nor what he perfect. With such a gap, we can safely conclude what the vast majority of members have already said here - if both are clean, Hanyu doesn't stand a chance. Plus, Hanyu's LP is so technically difficult that he has even a smaller chance of being clean and a higher probabilty of bombing.

[bekalc]

I guess you changed your mind a little too early. Patrick Chan just out PCS Hanyu by like 13 points even though Hanyu was skating not just in front of his partisan home country crowd - but his hometown devastated by the tsunami. And Patrick Chan wasn't even skating in Canda nor what he perfect. With such a gap, we can safely conclude what the vast majority of members have already said here - if both are clean, Hanyu doesn't stand a chance. Plus, Hanyu's LP is so technically difficult that he has even a smaller chance of being clean and a higher probabilty of bombing.

Hanyu had some mistakes his PCS are going to go up if he goes cleaner. Hes capable of going in the mid 80s in PCS. Not to mention he did his harder elements. The issue here was stamina. Now of course the guy does have issues because of his asthma but he seems to improving as time goes on.

Yes the program is incredibly difficult but if Hanyu wants to the Olympics hes going to need that quad toe and quad sal and two triple axels. He needs to get use to that layout now. And has two years to get use to it. I wouldn't be surprised too if they are hoping that he can get comfortable enough with the quad sal now so they can put it in his short program. Perhaps thats why they have him doing the single quad toe so he can get use to do it with footwork.

If there is a guy right now that's going to challenge Chan it will be Hanyu because of Hanyu's better jumping ability.

Yes the jump layout is hard.. But he has year and half. I'm reminded of Tarasova giving Illia that ridiculous program the year before the Olympics. I wouldn't be surprised if that's what Orser is thinking.

And your idea that Hanyu won't be at the Olympics. The Japanese fed doesn't use nationals and only and have shown more than enough times they will do whatever it takes to get the guys/girls they want at the olympics. See poor Yukari in the lead up to Torino and how the scores worked perfectly to ensure the girls they wanted went to the Olympics (and the guy they wanted too)..

Hanyu is their best shot at winning that Olympic Gold (maybe for all of them) because of his higher Technical potential. Already the Japanese fed is clearly pushing him as their no 1.

[Buttercup]

I think it should be obvious by now that a lot of the gap between top skaters and the rest of the field comes from GOEs, not just PCS. While Chan still has an edge in the latter, Hanyu has shown that he is very competitive when it comes to the former. Throw in the very high BV he often has and he becomes tough to beat when he is on, as his SP scores attest. And if he can get the 4S consistent enough to add to the SPs, he'll be breaking 100 in that phase of the competition. This brings us back to the same point: can Hanyu find a way to deal with his asthma and get through his LPs without major mistakes? If he can, he will be tough to beat. As Bekalc noted, his federation is clearly setting him up as their no. 1 and he has a very savvy coach looking after him as well.

The bottom line in terms of Hanyu vs. Chan is that assuming both skate cleanish programs, Hanyu is ahead technically, while Chan is still ahead on PCS in the judges' eyes. The question becomes who can close the gap in his "weaker" area. My money is on the 17 year old, but the timing will be crucial.

[bekalc]

I think it should be obvious by now that a lot of the gap between top skaters and the rest of the field comes from GOEs, not just PCS. While Chan still has an edge in the latter, Hanyu has shown that he is very competitive when it comes to the former. Throw in the very high BV he often has and he becomes tough to beat when he is on, as his SP scores attest. And if he can get the 4S consistent enough to add to the SPs, he'll be breaking 100 in that phase of the competition. This brings us back to the same point: can Hanyu find a way to deal with his asthma and get through his LPs without major mistakes? If he can, he will be tough to beat. As Bekalc noted, his federation is clearly setting him up as their no. 1 and he has a very savvy coach looking after him as well.

The bottom line in terms of Hanyu vs. Chan is that assuming both skate cleanish programs, Hanyu is ahead technically, while Chan is still ahead on PCS in the judges' eyes. The question becomes who can close the gap in his "weaker" area. My money is on the 17 year old, but the timing will be crucial.

Its really hard to know. I actually think the best thing that could happen for Chan is if he lost worlds this year. (esp to Hanyu) It would give Chan the kick in the butt he needs (I can't believe he thinks that he doesn't need a full time coach with lots of knowledge on jumps given jumps are his weaker area). And it would put some of the pressure on Hanyu at the Olympics.. It could easily be an Illia the young one finally putting it together... Or it could be a Plushenko perhaps just to much at that time.

[pangtongfan]

I think it should be obvious by now that a lot of the gap between top skaters and the rest of the field comes from GOEs, not just PCS. While Chan still has an edge in the latter, Hanyu has shown that he is very competitive when it comes to the former. Throw in the very high BV he often has and he becomes tough to beat when he is on, as his SP scores attest. And if he can get the 4S consistent enough to add to the SPs, he'll be breaking 100 in that phase of the competition. This brings us back to the same point: can Hanyu find a way to deal with his asthma and get through his LPs without major mistakes? If he can, he will be tough to beat. As Bekalc noted, his federation is clearly setting him up as their no. 1 and he has a very savvy coach looking after him as well.

The bottom line in terms of Hanyu vs. Chan is that assuming both skate cleanish programs, Hanyu is ahead technically, while Chan is still ahead on PCS in the judges' eyes. The question becomes who can close the gap in his "weaker" area. My money is on the 17 year old, but the timing will be crucial.

A good assessment and I completely agree. Especialy with the last paragraph.

[wallylutz]

Hanyu had some mistakes his PCS are going to go up if he goes cleaner. Hes capable of going in the mid 80s in PCS. Not to mention he did his harder elements. The issue here was stamina. Now of course the guy does have issues because of his asthma but he seems to improving as time goes on.

Yes the program is incredibly difficult but if Hanyu wants to the Olympics hes going to need that quad toe and quad sal and two triple axels. He needs to get use to that layout now. And has two years to get use to it. I wouldn't be surprised too if they are hoping that he can get comfortable enough with the quad sal now so they can put it in his short program. Perhaps thats why they have him doing the single quad toe so he can get use to do it with footwork.

If there is a guy right now that's going to challenge Chan it will be Hanyu because of Hanyu's better jumping ability.

I think it should be obvious by now that a lot of the gap between top skaters and the rest of the field comes from GOEs, not just PCS. While Chan still has an edge in the latter, Hanyu has shown that he is very competitive when it comes to the former. Throw in the very high BV he often has and he becomes tough to beat when he is on, as his SP scores attest. And if he can get the 4S consistent enough to add to the SPs, he'll be breaking 100 in that phase of the competition. This brings us back to the same point: can Hanyu find a way to deal with his asthma and get through his LPs without major mistakes? If he can, he will be tough to beat. As Bekalc noted, his federation is clearly setting him up as their no. 1 and he has a very savvy coach looking after him as well.

The bottom line in terms of Hanyu vs. Chan is that assuming both skate cleanish programs, Hanyu is ahead technically, while Chan is still ahead on PCS in the judges' eyes. The question becomes who can close the gap in his "weaker" area. My money is on the 17 year old, but the timing will be crucial.

I really hate to burst your bubbles, but I went to dig out the 2011 Worlds protocol where Chan skated lights out in his LP :

http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc..._FS_Scores.pdf

http://www.isuresults.com/results/gp..._FS_Scores.pdf

Chan's BV is 82.83 but only scored a Level 3 on his StSq, which could easily make Lv 4 as he has done many other times. Hanyu has a BV of 83.79 on home turf (whereas Chan's win in Moscow was abroad), not even one point higher, despite much more difficult technical content, not to mention higher risk. Assumed they both skate cleanly and to their full potential, the difference in BV would most likely be within 2-3 points at most, if not narrower. But when it comes to GOE potential, they both get very good GOE on well executed jumps but Chan has the clear upper hands in Step Sequences. So GOE advantage on Step Sequences alone could very well neutralize any difference in BV, everything else being equal. With such a big difference in PCS, the chance of Hanyu beating Chan when both skate clean is very remote, mathematically speaking.