Can Chan beat Hanyu if both skate their best?

[pangtongfan]

Absolutely rich that of all people a poster who even argued in excess that Emanuel Sandhu returning his 30s, the same Sandhu who last sighted in 2007 was being beaten in PCS by Christopher Mabee with similar technical performances, would be able to match or beat Chan in PCS and be a real threat to beat Chan if he returned:

http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sho...l=1#post590642

is now mocking others who support Hanyu, and dare to entertain his ability to challenge or possibly beat Chan. Too hilarious for words in fact. Hopefully this will also give others some insight into what you are dealing with with this particular poster. Best to not feed the trolls.

[wallylutz]

Despite seemingly more difficult jump content, Chan's program has enough technical elements by liberating jumping passes through more creative combinations that allow him to neutralize the advantage of other skaters like Hanyu and Fernandez doing 2 Triple Axels.

In this sense, I think Orser's plan for his students is a little too ambitious and if I can tell him this: "I think you overthink it". The result is his students bear disproportinate amount of risks in their LP which aren't necessarily compensate by corresponding rewards. To assume so much higher risk to get merely 1 point or 2 more in BV is not going to be able to beat a clean or almost clean Patrick Chan. Instead, the higher probability of bombing and suffer a huge loss akin to Hanyu's LP in SA and Fernandez's LP in NHK should be warning signs that their strategy isn't sound. I think he needs to reconsider the approach he used back when he was coaching Yu Na - less is more sometimes. At this rate, these two young men run the risk of bombing themselves out of contention, just too much risk.

[bekalc]

Hanyu's pcs are likely to rise given how much they have risen in the short. I have no doubt Hanyu will have a layout he can do at the Olympics now is the time to test that

[emma]

Despite seemingly more difficult jump content, Chan's program has enough technical elements by liberating jumping passes through more creative combinations that allow him to neutralize the advantage of other skaters like Hanyu and Fernandez doing 2 Triple Axels.

In this sense, I think Orser's plan for his students is a little too ambitious and if I can tell him this: "I think you overthink it". The result is his students bear disproportinate amount of risks in their LP which aren't necessarily compensate by corresponding rewards. To assume so much higher risk to get merely 1 point or 2 more in BV is not going to be able to beat a clean or almost clean Patrick Chan. Instead, the higher probability of bombing and suffer a huge loss akin to Hanyu's LP in SA and Fernandez's LP in NHK should be warning signs that their strategy isn't sound. I think he needs to reconsider the approach he used back when he was coaching Yu Na - less is more sometimes. At this rate, these two young men run the risk of bombing themselves out of contention, just too much risk.

Interesting take on risk and Orser and his students; but, maybe we should consider the possibility that he and they know this but are using this year to a) grow a lot and b) scare the heck out of Chan (and perhaps Dai and others), and c)build the strongest possible arsenal for the olympic year....just thinking about strategy as your post led me to that!

[Tommmy]

I guess you changed your mind a little too early. Patrick Chan just out PCS Hanyu by like 13 points even though Hanyu was skating not just in front of his partisan home country crowd - but his hometown devastated by the tsunami. And Patrick Chan wasn't even skating in Canda nor what he perfect. With such a gap, we can safely conclude what the vast majority of members have already said here - if both are clean, Hanyu doesn't stand a chance. Plus, Hanyu's LP is so technically difficult that he has even a smaller chance of being clean and a higher probabilty of bombing.

Well, it's a little strange but actually Hanyu always gets lower PCS when he competes at his home country.

[bekalc]

I disagree about Orser and the less is more strategy. I think Yu-na did plenty that was challenging. It was only in comparison to Asada who was doing 3 triple axels (but no triple lutz or 3/3 or 3sal) that Kim looked like she was going risk free. And in reality Kim didn't do the 3axel because she just couldn't do it. She also left out the 3loop but it wasn't because Orser never had Kim try the jump. She tried it plenty of times and they finally decided it wasn't working. Still if you look at the content other ladies were doing then and whats going on, Kim was taking plenty of risks. Not to mention it was a risk to switch over to the 3lutz/3toe and work on the 3flip for the season rather than just leaving things as is. I find the whole Kim doesn't challenge herself to be incredibly unfair to Kim...

In terms of Javier, I actually think if he takes out something it will be the second 3axel not the second quad. He's shown he can do both quads. In terms of Hanyu at this point why not go for the quad sal. So far its going pretty well he landed it in Finland, and was almost clean here. If it turns out that Hanyu is struggling I'm sure Orser will make some changes but I think its a perfectly good idea right now.

However I must say the title of this thread should be can Hanyu beat Chan if Chan is at his best, not the other way around. As of now I say no but I think in a year it could change.

[pangtongfan]

I disagree about Orser and the less is more strategy. I think Yu-na did plenty that was challenging. It was only in comparison to Asada who was doing 3 triple axels (but no triple lutz or 3/3 or 3sal) that Kim looked like she was going risk free. And in reality Kim didn't do the 3axel because she just couldn't do it. She also left out the 3loop but it wasn't because Orser never had Kim try the jump. She tried it plenty of times and they finally decided it wasn't working. Still if you look at the content other ladies were doing then and whats going on, Kim was taking plenty of risks. Not to mention it was a risk to switch over to the 3lutz/3toe and work on the 3flip for the season rather than just leaving things as is. I find the whole Kim doesn't challenge herself to be incredibly unfair to Kim...

In terms of Javier, I actually think if he takes out something it will be the second 3axel not the second quad. He's shown he can do both quads. In terms of Hanyu at this point why not go for the quad sal. So far its going pretty well he landed it in Finland, and was almost clean here. If it turns out that Hanyu is struggling I'm sure Orser will make some changes but I think its a perfectly good idea right now.

However I must say the title of this thread should be can Hanyu beat Chan if Chan is at his best, not the other way around. As of now I say no but I think in a year it could change.

Agree with all. I also think Hanyu is already at the point he would beat anyone else besides Chan if all were at their best. Takahashi would lose since even at his best he cant come close to matching Hanyu's TES at this point, and Fernandez definitely would be behind all 3 at their best. Chan meanwhile would have very little margin for error if Hanyu skates his best, and contrary to what an earlier poster said it is Chan who has the most problems of all skating clean programs.

[Buttercup]

I really hate to burst your bubbles, but I went to dig out the 2011 Worlds protocol where Chan skated lights out in his LP :

http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc..._FS_Scores.pdf

http://www.isuresults.com/results/gp..._FS_Scores.pdf

Chan's BV is 82.83 but only scored a Level 3 on his StSq, which could easily make Lv 4 as he has done many other times. Hanyu has a BV of 83.79 on home turf (whereas Chan's win in Moscow was abroad), not even one point higher, despite much more difficult technical content, not to mention higher risk. Assumed they both skate cleanly and to their full potential, the difference in BV would most likely be within 2-3 points at most, if not narrower. But when it comes to GOE potential, they both get very good GOE on well executed jumps but Chan has the clear upper hands in Step Sequences. So GOE advantage on Step Sequences alone could very well neutralize any difference in BV, everything else being equal. With such a big difference in PCS, the chance of Hanyu beating Chan when both skate clean is very remote, mathematically speaking.

So to support your argument, you've decided to compare Chan at what you consider pretty much his international best with Hanyu's imperfect performance yesterday? Wow, that's persuasive. You also seem to have confused the NHK Trophy with Canadian Nationals; what does skating at home have to do with Hanyu's base value? BTW, Kozuka beat Chan on TES at 2011 Worlds - by getting more on GOEs, which further supports my point - and should have beaten them on the LP overall, but I digress.

The small difference in step sequence GOEs (because Hanyu is not Kevin van der Perren) would more than be made up by Hanyu having a 4S and a more stable 3A (with more difficult entries). So the questions remain the same: 1. can Hanyu make up the PCS gap in time? 2. Can he find a way to deal with his asthma that would enable him to improve his stamina? Because the more realistic scenario right now is, Hanyu wins the SP, then runs out of steam in the LP to drop in the standings.

However, Hanyu is not yet 18 and most likely not yet at his peak. Unless Chan has some surprises up his sleeve, I don't think there's nearly as much room for him to improve.

Though it was be hilarious if Plushenko sweeps in and beats them both in Sochi.

[questar]

I just watched NHK videos.
And I was shocked by Hanyu's performances at NHK.
I am rooting for Chan.
I don't know whether I like Hanyu's skating style.
But I should admit this. This boy is simply amazing
I guess Hanyu could be unbeatable in a year...

As a figure skating fan I think It's lucky we can watch this boy skate. Including Dai,Taka(my another favorite skater),abbott,jav(adore this quy too), and more..
Men's figure skating is getting interesting.
Yes we can't forget Plushenko too. haha..

[sapphiresky]

Having just watched Yuzuru at NHK, I think that PChan has the advantage of stamina.
Yuzuru's jumps are amazing to watch during the short, big and powerful. However, when it comes to the LP, he hasn't impressed me yet. I can see him pushing to the end and I applaud him for that, but it is hard to watch him struggle so much and for the program to lose steam. This probably has to do with his asthma though.
PChan does impress when he hits his programs, but it's rare for him to be completely clean. And his off-ice comments still have me biased, but he does have great edges and smooth ice movement. Yuzuru still needs more maturity, but he has plenty of time.

[pangtongfan]

I think another question, since nearly all of us agree BOTH Chan and Hanyu are unlikely to do clean LPs, is can a clean Takahashi even beat an unclean but not disaesterous Chan and Hanyu to win a major event right now, or are those two so far ahead that still wouldnt happen. Takahashi still matches or bests Hanyu in PCS, but Hanyu just kills Takahashi in technical points, so much that even if Takahashi goes clean with quads, and Hanyu misses some things, Hanyu still comes out ahead, through a combination of much bigger GOEs, more difficult layout, sometimes higher levels. Meanwhile even if Fernandez skates his best how many mistakes do the other three need to make for him to beat him. Probably any of them have to skate as badly as Chan did at Skate Canada for that to happen.

[Kalina]

Meanwhile even if Fernandez skates his best how many mistakes do the other three need to make for him to beat him. Probably any of them have to skate as badly as Chan did at Skate Canada for that to happen.

Fernandez got almost 84 PCs in his free skate at Skate Canada. If he manages to go clean and follow his planned content (which means landing three quads in the free skate alone), it might be difficult for them to beat him, and not the other way around.

[Skater Boy]

I do believe Fernandez and Hanyu TES could beat Chan and will IF they land all the jumps but neither one of them have shown any real consistency in respect to getting all the planned quads landed. That being said, Chan could still beat Hanyu at least this year. While Hanyu has skated the better short program; Chan's long program is quite a bit more difficult pc wise.

[pangtongfan]

Fernandez got almost 84 PCs in his free skate at Skate Canada. If he manages to go clean and follow his planned content (which means landing three quads in the free skate alone), it might be difficult for them to beat him, and not the other way around.

Well just look at the SP at NHK. He skated cleanly with the same jumps as Hanyu and was behind by 9 points, and also behind Takahashi who fell. Hanyu just obliterated him in GOEs, and both Takahashi and Hanyu easily beat him in PCS.

[itoja]

I think another question, since nearly all of us agree BOTH Chan and Hanyu are unlikely to do clean LPs, is can a clean Takahashi even beat an unclean but not disaesterous Chan and Hanyu to win a major event right now, or are those two so far ahead that still wouldnt happen. Takahashi still matches or bests Hanyu in PCS, but Hanyu just kills Takahashi in technical points, so much that even if Takahashi goes clean with quads, and Hanyu misses some things, Hanyu still comes out ahead, through a combination of much bigger GOEs, more difficult layout, sometimes higher levels. Meanwhile even if Fernandez skates his best how many mistakes do the other three need to make for him to beat him. Probably any of them have to skate as badly as Chan did at Skate Canada for that to happen.

This is just ridiculous. Takahashi wasn't clean at NHK, his biggest mistake was the second 3A, he got only 4.91 for it, when combo 3A+2T+2Lo=12.76, so it's almost 8 points difference. With positive GOE, he usually gets on his 3A, it is 9, 10 points lost. No Hanyu's mistake was that costly. So realistically clean Takahashi (with very low PCS 83.06) is about 175 (he also lost points on the steps). If you're saying clean Takahashi with quads, it is about 6 points more = 181. No way that kind of skate from Takahashi is going to get only 83.06 PCS, around 90 is more likely, so here we are - 188 - world record