Can Chan beat Hanyu if both skate their best? | Page 5 | Golden Skate

Can Chan beat Hanyu if both skate their best?

bekalc

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 1, 2006
I disagree about Orser and the less is more strategy. I think Yu-na did plenty that was challenging. It was only in comparison to Asada who was doing 3 triple axels (but no triple lutz or 3/3 or 3sal) that Kim looked like she was going risk free. And in reality Kim didn't do the 3axel because she just couldn't do it. She also left out the 3loop but it wasn't because Orser never had Kim try the jump. She tried it plenty of times and they finally decided it wasn't working. Still if you look at the content other ladies were doing then and whats going on, Kim was taking plenty of risks. Not to mention it was a risk to switch over to the 3lutz/3toe and work on the 3flip for the season rather than just leaving things as is. I find the whole Kim doesn't challenge herself to be incredibly unfair to Kim...

In terms of Javier, I actually think if he takes out something it will be the second 3axel not the second quad. He's shown he can do both quads. In terms of Hanyu at this point why not go for the quad sal. So far its going pretty well he landed it in Finland, and was almost clean here. If it turns out that Hanyu is struggling I'm sure Orser will make some changes but I think its a perfectly good idea right now.

However I must say the title of this thread should be can Hanyu beat Chan if Chan is at his best, not the other way around. As of now I say no but I think in a year it could change.
 
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pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
I disagree about Orser and the less is more strategy. I think Yu-na did plenty that was challenging. It was only in comparison to Asada who was doing 3 triple axels (but no triple lutz or 3/3 or 3sal) that Kim looked like she was going risk free. And in reality Kim didn't do the 3axel because she just couldn't do it. She also left out the 3loop but it wasn't because Orser never had Kim try the jump. She tried it plenty of times and they finally decided it wasn't working. Still if you look at the content other ladies were doing then and whats going on, Kim was taking plenty of risks. Not to mention it was a risk to switch over to the 3lutz/3toe and work on the 3flip for the season rather than just leaving things as is. I find the whole Kim doesn't challenge herself to be incredibly unfair to Kim...

In terms of Javier, I actually think if he takes out something it will be the second 3axel not the second quad. He's shown he can do both quads. In terms of Hanyu at this point why not go for the quad sal. So far its going pretty well he landed it in Finland, and was almost clean here. If it turns out that Hanyu is struggling I'm sure Orser will make some changes but I think its a perfectly good idea right now.

However I must say the title of this thread should be can Hanyu beat Chan if Chan is at his best, not the other way around. As of now I say no but I think in a year it could change.

Agree with all. I also think Hanyu is already at the point he would beat anyone else besides Chan if all were at their best. Takahashi would lose since even at his best he cant come close to matching Hanyu's TES at this point, and Fernandez definitely would be behind all 3 at their best. Chan meanwhile would have very little margin for error if Hanyu skates his best, and contrary to what an earlier poster said it is Chan who has the most problems of all skating clean programs.
 

Buttercup

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 25, 2008
I really hate to burst your bubbles, but I went to dig out the 2011 Worlds protocol where Chan skated lights out in his LP :

http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc2011/wc2011_Men_FS_Scores.pdf

http://www.isuresults.com/results/gpjpn2012/gpjpn2012_Men_FS_Scores.pdf

Chan's BV is 82.83 but only scored a Level 3 on his StSq, which could easily make Lv 4 as he has done many other times. Hanyu has a BV of 83.79 on home turf (whereas Chan's win in Moscow was abroad), not even one point higher, despite much more difficult technical content, not to mention higher risk. Assumed they both skate cleanly and to their full potential, the difference in BV would most likely be within 2-3 points at most, if not narrower. But when it comes to GOE potential, they both get very good GOE on well executed jumps but Chan has the clear upper hands in Step Sequences. So GOE advantage on Step Sequences alone could very well neutralize any difference in BV, everything else being equal. With such a big difference in PCS, the chance of Hanyu beating Chan when both skate clean is very remote, mathematically speaking.
So to support your argument, you've decided to compare Chan at what you consider pretty much his international best with Hanyu's imperfect performance yesterday? Wow, that's persuasive. You also seem to have confused the NHK Trophy with Canadian Nationals; what does skating at home have to do with Hanyu's base value? BTW, Kozuka beat Chan on TES at 2011 Worlds - by getting more on GOEs, which further supports my point - and should have beaten them on the LP overall, but I digress.

The small difference in step sequence GOEs (because Hanyu is not Kevin van der Perren) would more than be made up by Hanyu having a 4S and a more stable 3A (with more difficult entries). So the questions remain the same: 1. can Hanyu make up the PCS gap in time? 2. Can he find a way to deal with his asthma that would enable him to improve his stamina? Because the more realistic scenario right now is, Hanyu wins the SP, then runs out of steam in the LP to drop in the standings.

However, Hanyu is not yet 18 and most likely not yet at his peak. Unless Chan has some surprises up his sleeve, I don't think there's nearly as much room for him to improve.

Though it was be hilarious if Plushenko sweeps in and beats them both in Sochi. :popcorn:
 

questar

Rinkside
Joined
Nov 21, 2010
I just watched NHK videos.
And I was shocked by Hanyu's performances at NHK.
I am rooting for Chan.
I don't know whether I like Hanyu's skating style.
But I should admit this. This boy is simply amazing
I guess Hanyu could be unbeatable in a year...

As a figure skating fan I think It's lucky we can watch this boy skate. Including Dai,Taka(my another favorite skater:love:),abbott,jav(adore this quy too), and more..
Men's figure skating is getting interesting.
Yes we can't forget Plushenko too. haha..
 
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sapphiresky

Rinkside
Joined
Nov 3, 2012
Having just watched Yuzuru at NHK, I think that PChan has the advantage of stamina.
Yuzuru's jumps are amazing to watch during the short, big and powerful. However, when it comes to the LP, he hasn't impressed me yet. I can see him pushing to the end and I applaud him for that, but it is hard to watch him struggle so much and for the program to lose steam. This probably has to do with his asthma though.
PChan does impress when he hits his programs, but it's rare for him to be completely clean. And his off-ice comments still have me biased, but he does have great edges and smooth ice movement. Yuzuru still needs more maturity, but he has plenty of time.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
I think another question, since nearly all of us agree BOTH Chan and Hanyu are unlikely to do clean LPs, is can a clean Takahashi even beat an unclean but not disaesterous Chan and Hanyu to win a major event right now, or are those two so far ahead that still wouldnt happen. Takahashi still matches or bests Hanyu in PCS, but Hanyu just kills Takahashi in technical points, so much that even if Takahashi goes clean with quads, and Hanyu misses some things, Hanyu still comes out ahead, through a combination of much bigger GOEs, more difficult layout, sometimes higher levels. Meanwhile even if Fernandez skates his best how many mistakes do the other three need to make for him to beat him. Probably any of them have to skate as badly as Chan did at Skate Canada for that to happen.
 

Kalina

On the Ice
Joined
Jul 30, 2012
Meanwhile even if Fernandez skates his best how many mistakes do the other three need to make for him to beat him. Probably any of them have to skate as badly as Chan did at Skate Canada for that to happen.

Fernandez got almost 84 PCs in his free skate at Skate Canada. If he manages to go clean and follow his planned content (which means landing three quads in the free skate alone), it might be difficult for them to beat him, and not the other way around.
 

Skater Boy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 24, 2012
I do believe Fernandez and Hanyu TES could beat Chan and will IF they land all the jumps but neither one of them have shown any real consistency in respect to getting all the planned quads landed. That being said, Chan could still beat Hanyu at least this year. While Hanyu has skated the better short program; Chan's long program is quite a bit more difficult pc wise.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Fernandez got almost 84 PCs in his free skate at Skate Canada. If he manages to go clean and follow his planned content (which means landing three quads in the free skate alone), it might be difficult for them to beat him, and not the other way around.

Well just look at the SP at NHK. He skated cleanly with the same jumps as Hanyu and was behind by 9 points, and also behind Takahashi who fell. Hanyu just obliterated him in GOEs, and both Takahashi and Hanyu easily beat him in PCS.
 

itoja

Rinkside
Joined
Nov 12, 2012
I think another question, since nearly all of us agree BOTH Chan and Hanyu are unlikely to do clean LPs, is can a clean Takahashi even beat an unclean but not disaesterous Chan and Hanyu to win a major event right now, or are those two so far ahead that still wouldnt happen. Takahashi still matches or bests Hanyu in PCS, but Hanyu just kills Takahashi in technical points, so much that even if Takahashi goes clean with quads, and Hanyu misses some things, Hanyu still comes out ahead, through a combination of much bigger GOEs, more difficult layout, sometimes higher levels. Meanwhile even if Fernandez skates his best how many mistakes do the other three need to make for him to beat him. Probably any of them have to skate as badly as Chan did at Skate Canada for that to happen.
This is just ridiculous. Takahashi wasn't clean at NHK, his biggest mistake was the second 3A, he got only 4.91 for it, when combo 3A+2T+2Lo=12.76, so it's almost 8 points difference. With positive GOE, he usually gets on his 3A, it is 9, 10 points lost. No Hanyu's mistake was that costly. So realistically clean Takahashi (with very low PCS 83.06) is about 175 (he also lost points on the steps). If you're saying clean Takahashi with quads, it is about 6 points more = 181. No way that kind of skate from Takahashi is going to get only 83.06 PCS, around 90 is more likely, so here we are - 188 - world record :)
 

Bluebonnet

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 18, 2010
I think another question, since nearly all of us agree BOTH Chan and Hanyu are unlikely to do clean LPs, is can a clean Takahashi even beat an unclean but not disaesterous Chan and Hanyu to win a major event right now, or are those two so far ahead that still wouldnt happen. Takahashi still matches or bests Hanyu in PCS, but Hanyu just kills Takahashi in technical points, so much that even if Takahashi goes clean with quads, and Hanyu misses some things, Hanyu still comes out ahead, through a combination of much bigger GOEs, more difficult layout, sometimes higher levels. Meanwhile even if Fernandez skates his best how many mistakes do the other three need to make for him to beat him. Probably any of them have to skate as badly as Chan did at Skate Canada for that to happen.

They are not far apart at all. Hanyu has the strongest TES. Chan has the most refined skating. Takahashi has the most dramatic ability in performance. Looks like Takahashi couldn't be clean either with now two quads in his LP.;) If assuming as you said that Takahashi is clean with two quads which we've never seen, I think there won't be much room for big mistakes from Chan or Hanyu. However, I think that a little flawed Chan (assume that Chan's TES was up to his last year's level) or a little flawed Hanyu could beat a clean Takahashi. Hanyu wasn't that out of breathe at the end of his LP at NHK.
 
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Bluebonnet

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 18, 2010
But he was droopy from the start. And near the end he decided to take a rest and sit down during his spin. :laugh:

Anyone with that high BV and TES deserved a rest somewhere in spin.:laugh: Droopy from the start? That was his posture problem.
 
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