2012 TEB Men's Short Program SP

[wallylutz]

I disagree wallylutz, that Jeremy's program "is inadequate." It's a solid program, but he did have a bit of traveling and slowness on some of his spins (I think from nerves). Other than that, the speed and choreography, as well as the interpretation is excellent. It's one of the better sps this season, IMO. Sure if Hanyu, Fernandez, Kozuka, Chan and Dai perform all their jumps well, they are certain to be scored higher if Jeremy doesn't include a quad in his sp, but I think Jeremy's sp and especially his gorgeous fp are very competitive with these guys. I don't think Dai has stellar programs choreographically this season, unfortunately. IMO, it will come down to Jeremy performing technically well along with showing off his great artistry. Jeremy won't have enough points even should he win gold here to make it to GPF. So, I hope he does cop the gold here and goes home in a strong frame of mind to do great things at Nationals and Worlds (fingers-crossed he makes the World team).

If Chan does everything well, he has very competitive programs artistically this season, so that will likely keep Chan on the top at GPF and possibly Worlds, unless Fernandez continues to build his presentation skills, stays strong on technique and pulls another fast one against Chan at GPF. Japan Nationals will be a slugfest, but I'm thinking Hanyu, Kozuka and Dai might prevail. I think Hanyu is loved by ISU judges, but he still needs to build maturity and endurance. Kozuka is a strong skater, but I don't think he's a better skater than Jeremy Abbott (despite SA results). Dai doesn't have absolutely great programs this season, and even when he had them last season, the judges were reluctant to reward Dai, plus Dai has shown some vulnerability technically in his last GP. So, once again, I think Jeremy's sp is competitive with the top guys (maybe some think it's a weak program because the music and stylistic approach are not classical, but that shouldn't be the determining factor, IMO). Of course, Jeremy doesn't always get the reputation points because he needs to consistently prove he can do his best under pressure, and he needs a more consistent quad.

Well said, you made some very valid points. Let me clarify my comments re: Jeremy. When I said inadequate, I am speaking strictly regarding the TES, not the PCS. The men have reached a stage where a quadless SP is unlikely going to be competitive for the foreseable future. In that sense, the technical design of such SP is inadequate. I don't think Jeremy would be satisfied this season unless he can win US Nationals and make at least Top 5 in the Worlds, if not a world podium finish. To do that, I believe he will need his Quad in the SP. I don't see him beating the Japanese and other European challengers without it.

Ironically, there is a chance that Daisuke Takahashi may not even make the Japanese world team this year. If that happens, I think many people would be very upset.

[Mao88]

MEN'S SHORT PROGRAM - VIDEOS & RESULT

1. Jeremy ABBOTT (USA) - 81.18 Short Program
2. Takahito MURA (JPN) - 76.65
3. Brian JOUBERT (FRA) - 75.46 Short Program
4. Jorik HENDRICKX (BEL) - 68.90
5. Jinlin GUAN (CHN) - 65.77
6. Nan SONG (CHN) - 65.75
7. Florent AMODIO (FRA) - 60.13 Short Program
8. Chafik BESSEGHIER (FRA) - 58.28
9. Tomas VERNER (CZE) - 57.40 Short Program

[Art&Sport]

...

Just thought some data was some good food for thought. So yes, Jeremy, even with strong PCS, is actually below the median as far as top scores among all the men competing so far on the GP.

Thanks for the breakdown, but Jeremy is not below the median on PCS. Anyway, despite what the numbers say, Jeremy is a way better overall skater IMHO than Mura, Machida, Menshov, Amodio, and Oda (the main thing Oda has going for him is his jumping ability and he often gets way over-scored on PCS by the judges IMO). And, Jeremy is highly competitive with the rest of the top guys, including Fernandez, Chan, Kozuka, Hanyu, and Dai (who doesn't have great programs this season).

The huge problem for Jeremy is that he doesn't get reputation points because he has to consistently prove he can stand up technically under pressure, and he needs his quad to be consistent. As a result, Jeremy is not seen as being as strong a jumper as Fernandez, Chan, Hanyu and even Dai (I don't think Kozuka is as strong jump-wise as the other four guys but he's relatively consistent and he does have great ability, plus improved programs this season). I don't think that Kozuka is artistically as strong as Jeremy though, and neither is Fernandez. Chan is improving his already good artistry this season. Hanyu is precocious technically and artistically, but lacks maturity and endurance. Dai doesn't have great programs this season and he's shown vulnerability technically. Jeremy isn't probably seen to be as strong a jumper as these guys technically. However, he actually is a strong jumper! He just needs to prove that consistently under pressure, and master the quad. None of the top guys are consistently solid as a rock, but they have more consistent quads and more rep with the judges than Jeremy.

[Mrs. P]

Thanks for the breakdown, but Jeremy is not below the median on PCS. Anyway, despite what the numbers say, Jeremy is a way better overall skater IMHO than Mura, Machida, Menshov, Amodio, and Oda (the main thing Oda has going for him is his jumping ability and he often gets way over-scored on PCS by the judges IMO). And, Jeremy is highly competitive with the rest of the top guys, including Fernandez, Chan, Kozuka, Hanyu, and Dai (who doesn't have great programs this season).

The huge problem for Jeremy is that he doesn't get reputation points because he has to consistently prove he can stand up technically under pressure, and he needs his quad to be consistent. As a result, Jeremy is not seen as being as strong a jumper as Fernandez, Chan, Hanyu and even Dai (I don't think Kozuka is as strong jump-wise as the other four guys but he's relatively consistent and he does have great ability, plus improved programs this season). I don't think that Kozuka is artistically as strong as Jeremy though, and neither is Fernandez. Chan is improving his already good artistry this season. Hanyu is precocious technically and artistically, but lacks maturity and endurance. Dai doesn't have great programs this season and he's shown vulnerability technically. Jeremy isn't probably seen to be as strong a jumper as these guys technically. However, he actually is a strong jumper! He just needs to prove that consistently under pressure, and master the quad. None of the top guys are consistently solid as a rock, but they have more consistent quads and more rep with the judges than Jeremy.

Here's what I said after my data:

So yes, Jeremy, even with strong PCS, is actually below the median as far as top scores among all the men competing so far on the GP.

He's not below the median on PCS at all. In fact, he's ranked fourth among ALL the skaters (behind Yuzuru, Daisuke and Patrick). So the judges agree with you that Jeremy has better artistry than Fernandez or Kozuka. But the fact is that Jeremy's low TES keeps his OVERALL score below the median.

Nobody is disputing his abilities on the PCS side, but for now, he's not doing enough on the TES side to contend with the top men at the moment.

[Mrs. P]

It's Brian's TES. Mura got 41.15.

Corrected. Didn't really change his standing though.

[emma]

I hear what you are saying and do find my self both excited by the men's quad in the short program and worried! I would really, really hate to imagine worlds this year without Dai.

[demarinis5]

Congrats to Jeremy and thanks to Mao for posting the video of his performance! Looking foward to watching the videos.

[deedee1]

deedee1-- You can watch Mura! It will be worth it.

Thanks, Mrs. P. I actually did watch the competition thru on-line streaming, and was so excited to see Mura doing that well in SP!

But the competition itself was a bit disappointing to me, except perfect Takahito and clean Jeremy...
What I wanted to write was 'Idk why I bothered myself to stay up that late to watch this comp???'. Since it's getting so late in my time and my English was just that bad...Okay, it's 4am already. Will go to my bed. Good night, everyone!

[Mao88]

MEN'S SHORT PROGRAM - VIDEOS & RESULT (Updated)

1. Jeremy ABBOTT (USA) - 81.18 Short Program
2. Takahito MURA (JPN) - 76.65 Short program, 2nd Copy
3. Brian JOUBERT (FRA) - 75.46 Short Program, 2nd Copy
4. Jorik HENDRICKX (BEL) - 68.90 Short Program, 2nd Copy
5. Jinlin GUAN (CHN) - 65.77 Short Program
6. Nan SONG (CHN) - 65.75 Short Program, 2nd Copy
7. Florent AMODIO (FRA) - 60.13 Short Program
8. Chafik BESSEGHIER (FRA) - 58.28 Short Program, 2nd Copy
9. Tomas VERNER (CZE) - 57.40 Short Program

[auser]

I hear what you are saying and do find my self both excited by the men's quad in the short program and worried! I would really, really hate to imagine worlds this year without Dai.

No Dai, I will cry

[DannyCurry]

Amodio too... And with no jump + one spin missing he still manage not to finish last. 13.85 pt for two falls... Thanks wonderful COP.
Under 6.0 this would never happen. Let's not talk about Amodio 7 in performance/execution for his worst skate ever. Or 7.4 for empty choreo.

I sooo agree with you! Got to the arena just on time to see his complete meltdown. Didn't know by then how the other guys had skated, but still thought Amodio's marks were too high.

OTOH, I luuurved Jeremy's program. I don't mind if he went quadless, his transitions and musicality make up for that. Terrific performance, in my opinion. Hope he can make it in the long as well.

[wonderlen3000]

Ironically, there is a chance that Daisuke Takahashi may not even make the Japanese world team this year. If that happens, I think many people would be very upset.

Well it really depends on how they all did. Assuming both Dai and Hanyu get into GPF, there is four Japanese skaters including Kazuka and Michida. Of these four, who ever finish the highest will earn a berth to world. Juding from how Dai skated at COC, he needs to up his jumps to be able to match others. Assuming both Hanyu and Kazuko finish a head of Dai, one of them will earn a berth.

But yeah im worry too. But the federation will make sure he is in the team even if he finished out of podium because he qualify for final and based on last season result. They know having Dai is a big fat rating for the TV.

[Mrs. P]

Well it really depends on how they all did. Assuming both Dai and Hanyu get into GPF, there is four Japanese skaters including Kazuka and Michida. Of these four, who ever finish the highest will earn a berth to world. Juding from how Dai skated at COC, he needs to up his jumps to be able to match others. Assuming both Hanyu and Kazuko finish a head of Dai, one of them will earn a berth.

But yeah im worry too. But the federation will make sure he is in the team even if he finished out of podium because he qualify for final and based on last season result. They know having Dai is a big fat rating for the TV.

Are they doing the GPF final best qualifier as a berth placement this year? I thought they did away with that after 2010.

[let`s talk]

No Dai, I will cry

Don't worry, darling, you won't need to. Worlds, even in Canada, without the major male skater would be indeed some blah. Some people simply want an easy victory to their home guy in his country, that's why they wish the worst to one of his main rivals. Not that's I am surprised much with their pettiness, not to say that they dragged Dai to bash him in the competition thread where he is not competing. The stupidest thinig was to say that Dai won't make Team Japan. Gross ignorance of some sofa specialist who has zero idea what the brands "Mao" and "Dai" mean in Japan and for television. Pehaps he/she thinks they mean as "much" as his/her Idol in his homeland. Or that desperate attempt of another poster who kept typing in each post more than once that Dai doesn't have good competitive progs, as if it will come true of he/she types it a lot. The funniest part is that he/she did it in comparison to Abbott, whose SP is some clownish baby hollywood tough guy and his FS is basically pretty much the same stuff as his last season's FS. Dai doesn't have a quadless SP and will challenge a quad in his both progs, twice in LP, as he said more than once. Therefore all this rant about a quadless SP from Dai is one more pathetic move of his haters. He wasn't good in CoC in general, where he changed the boots right before the event. So his team assured the media that they will do their best to deal with this issue by NHK.

[Mathman]

That's a needlessly mean and foolish criticism of Abbott, if you ask me. He's out there doing the best he can, like everyone else.