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Thread: 2012 TEB Men's Long Programs LP

  1. #76
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    Mura = 3 + 15 = 18
    Abbott = 13 + 13 = 26
    Amodio = 9 + 11 = 20

    If Fernandez, Hanyu and Takahashi are the medalists next week, and Fernandez wins, one of Takahashi or Hanyu won't make the GPF (13 + 11 = 24), and Abbott makes the GPF. If Takahashi and Hanyu go 1-2, and Fernandez wins bronze, Abbott doesn't make the GPF.

  2. #77
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    I logged on late and couldn't get a good live streaming link (the one from the sp said BANNED!). Anyway, Jeremy was skating while I was trying to get a link, and even though the picture was dodgy and jerky, it seemed as if he wasn't cleanly landing all of his jumps. I wonder if his physical problems combined with his usual nerves are doing a number on him. Way too bad. He's such an exceptional all-around skater. It kind of hurts to see Jeremy being beaten by one-dimensional skaters like Mura, Menshov, Brezina, and Amodio (who granted is a cut above Menshov and Oda in some respects, but suffers choreographically under Morosov, IMO). Jeremy also seems to often be fairly easily beaten by well-rounded skaters at his comparative level, such as Kozuka, and even Oda, and the up-and-coming Machida when especially both Oda and Machida are not at Jeremy's level artistically.

    Jeremy should be considered as one of the top flight skaters in the same breath as Chan, Dai, Hanyu and the coming-on gangbusters Fernandez. He isn't simply because he is so inconsistent technically which has to do mainly with nerves, and unfortunately this season with his added challenge of physical difficulties (back spasms and tight muscles).

    ETA: Well, since I didn't get to see what happened really, maybe Jeremy didn't make as many mistakes as I'd imagined and perhaps because Amodio fared so poorly in the sp, Jeremy's marks are higher for that reason. But, in any case, with his talent Jeremy should have wiped this field. He's a much better skater than Mura. I don't think Jeremy should feel happy coming away with just the silver at this comp. But maybe he will feel good that he persevered as well as he did under the circumstances of his physical problems.
    Last edited by Art&Sport; 11-17-2012 at 11:07 AM.

  3. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by LRK View Post
    And what will happen when he later will need the quad?
    That's the thing. I don't think he needs it. In this system, it's far better to execute the elements you know well but keep your base value high with strong combinations with triple toes.

    I agree that he needs a quad to podium at Worlds, but not every competition is Worlds. I would rather see him build his reputation as a consistent jumper on the triples and triple axels, than risk it with a quad that he has trouble fully rotating.

    In this system, I would only recommend the quad if a skater can be sure to get credit for all four revolutions, because a fall on the element still earns around 6 points overall. But once a skater underrotates the element, it destroys its worth. In this case, he'll probably earn about two points for the attempted quad. If he did a 3F+3T instead, which can he do with little effort, he would have gotten closer to 9 points, plus positive GOEs.
    Last edited by draqq; 11-17-2012 at 11:06 AM.

  4. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by SubRosa View Post
    Mura = 3 + 15 = 18
    Abbott = 13 + 13 = 26
    Amodio = 9 + 11 = 20

    If Fernandez, Hanyu and Takahashi are the medalists next week, and Fernandez wins, one of Takahashi or Hanyu won't make the GPF (13 + 11 = 24), and Abbott makes the GPF. If Takahashi and Hanyu go 1-2, and Fernandez wins bronze, Abbott doesn't make the GPF.
    Um nope. Abbott has 7 points from SA. So 13+7 =20 .

    In your scenario, Fernandez wins (30); Hanyu (26 or 24) and Takahashi (26 or 24) still all beat Jeremy. Something absolutely crazy would have to happen for Jeremy to make GPF me thinks.

  5. #80
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    Jeremy's tech is going down hill, I'm afraid. I muted the sound while I was watching his skate because I needed to be quiet at where I was. It looked clear that way that besides his jumps and spins, Jeremy's some of the footworks were really insecure.
    Last edited by Bluebonnet; 11-17-2012 at 11:48 AM.

  6. #81
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    You're forgetting that Abbott only earned 7 points at Skate America.

    Quote Originally Posted by SubRosa View Post
    Mura = 3 + 15 = 18
    Abbott = 13 + 13 = 26
    Amodio = 9 + 11 = 20

    If Fernandez, Hanyu and Takahashi are the medalists next week, and Fernandez wins, one of Takahashi or Hanyu won't make the GPF (13 + 11 = 24), and Abbott makes the GPF. If Takahashi and Hanyu go 1-2, and Fernandez wins bronze, Abbott doesn't make the GPF.

  7. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by LRK View Post
    And what will happen when he later will need the quad?
    The way he skates...he won't need it, because he will not be there, at the finish line with the best. Beside the quad, you need 7-8 triples and 3 clean combos, he has not come anywhere close to that number. Don't get me wrong, I am a fan, but very mad at him. He is wasting a huge potential, for many years by now.

  8. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by glam View Post
    I feel like some of the judges dislike him? He could have been better scored here.
    Joubert skated to a 6.0 programme in a CoP competition... I would say he was overscored, especially in PCS.

    Quote Originally Posted by Buttercup View Post
    Levels, GOEs, UR calls. For all that people complain re PCS, there's a lot of dodgy stuff that can be done on the tech side, by the judges and the tech panel. I believe Joe Inman is the tech caller for the men's event, FWIW.
    Hmm, I did not notice that Joubert was doing technically something better than he got the credit for. The judging was very fair technically, in my opinion. In PCS the judges were not fair, giving some skaters a lot more PCS than they deserved. Nan Song was definetely robbed!!!
    Last edited by Jaana; 11-17-2012 at 11:17 AM.

  9. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by SubRosa View Post
    Who would have predicted Mura winning?
    ME!

    I mean I predicted that he will win at TEB and I turned out to be right, as always . On September 28th Takahito twittered a pic with Air France airplanes and a comment that his GP is in France. In the replies you can see my tweet from Sep 28 "You'll win there." So, at least one person knew the result in advance : https://twitter.com/takahito3211/sta...94348574547968

  10. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by draqq View Post
    You're forgetting that Abbott only earned 7 points at Skate America.
    D'oh. Yes I did. Thanks for correcting that.

    So none of the medalists here qualify for the GPF.

  11. #86
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    I would also like to point out that it was four years ago that Buttle won gold at Worlds with a quad-less free skate. He earned around 84 points in TCS for his performance.

    Since then, the effect of GOEs have lessened but the judges are now far more willing to award +1s and +2s for an element, as well as award 8s in program components. This is something Jeremy and his coaching team should consider.

    Performing triple-triples and being awarded high levels for footwork and spins is still more important than attempting an inconsistently rotated quad.

  12. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by draqq View Post
    That's the thing. I don't think he needs it. In this system, it's far better to execute the elements you know well but keep your base value high with strong combinations with triple toes.

    I agree that he needs a quad to podium at Worlds, but not every competition is Worlds. I would rather see him build his reputation as a consistent jumper on the triples and triple axels, than risk it with a quad that he has trouble fully rotating.

    In this system, I would only recommend the quad if a skater can be sure to get credit for all four revolutions, because a fall on the element still earns around 6 points overall. But once a skater underrotates the element, it destroys its worth. In this case, he'll probably earn about two points for the attempted quad. If he did a 3F+3T instead, which can he do with little effort, he would have gotten closer to 9 points, plus positive GOEs.
    Hmmm... what competitions remain? Nationals, 4CC, Worlds' I think?

    So you think no quad will pass muster at Nationals?

    4CC then?

  13. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaana View Post
    Joubert skated to a 6.0 programme in a CoP competition... I would say he was overscored, especially in PCS.
    No he didn't. If Amodio's seven stop's posing choreo is what judges want, then he should add more poses then...

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    Quote Originally Posted by herios View Post
    The way he skates...he won't need it, because he will not be there, at the finish line with the best. Beside the quad, you need 7-8 triples and 3 clean combos, he has not come anywhere close to that number. Don't get me wrong, I am a fan, but very mad at him. He is wasting a huge potential, for many years by now.
    I'm a Jeremy fan too, but only sad for him, not mad. As you can see from my previous post, it's fairly upsetting to see someone as uber-talented as Jeremy unable to break through consistently due to nerves mainly, and now apparently coupled with physical problems (age becoming a factor as well). There's no point in being mad at him though. Things are what they are, and we can only hope for better. If it never happens for him the way we think it should, then that's the way it goes.

    But, of course, it doesn't seem to make any logical sense in the universe that skaters like Mura, Machida, Oda and Menshov are such more confident and talented jumpers but possess none of Jeremy's magical artistic gifts. Why can't Jeremy combine technical confidence and precision with his naturally superb artistry??? Such a conundrum -- I'm gob-smacked.

    ETA:
    Actually, I can't help but kinda partly blame TPTB insistence and obsessiveness with quad, as well as CoP's dumbing down the importance of artistry in fs.
    Last edited by Art&Sport; 11-17-2012 at 11:24 AM.

  15. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by herios View Post
    The way he skates...he won't need it, because he will not be there, at the finish line with the best. Beside the quad, you need 7-8 triples and 3 clean combos, he has not come anywhere close to that number. Don't get me wrong, I am a fan, but very mad at him. He is wasting a huge potential, for many years by now.
    I know. Had he at least completed the last triple he might have enough to win. Doubles are for novice... what's wrong with him. Such a head case!!!

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