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Thread: 2012 TEB Ladies Long Program Lp

  1. #181
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    Quote Originally Posted by Art&Sport View Post
    What if Asada and Suzuki don't perform up to their abilities at NHK? As much as I like Mao, I'm not sure how she prevailed with only 3 ratified triples at CoC. I do agree that Zawadzki and Nagasu likely have less chance than Gao of making GPF, but again, NHK has to take place before we will really know the final results.
    Well, certainly. That's just my prediction, after all, but Mao already has a gold medal from CoC, so she can easily qualify for GPF with a bronze at NHK. Suzuki has a silver from SC, and needs to medal. Both are, IMO, very likely to qualify.

  2. #182
    Rejoicing in the land of Kwan kwanatic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Art&Sport View Post
    Absolutely agree re your assessment of Ashley. I for one am not surprised either at her composure and success, and I bet neither is Ashley or Nicks.

    Liza Tuykt and Julia have a lot of potential and yes they can jump (I think Liza's jumps are technically superior to Julia's but Julia has some beautiful air positions although she doesn't have good height). Also, it's very obvious that Liza is struggling with her body changes, but just by sheer will she got through that fp and completed all of her jumps. However, Liza did not show the maturity, artistry and command of the ice that Ashley showed. I say again, let the young girls grow up.

    Those who mentioned Liza suffering from her ankle injury, sure. So the way she fought for her program shows she's as tough-minded as Tuykt. I still think they both are a bit over-rewarded for their technical precocity. Whereas someone like Gao who has wonderful jumping ability too and is exhibiting much more grace and maturity this season, appears to be far more low-balled in the marks when she makes mistakes than Liza and Julia have been.
    IMO (purely my opinion) I find Liza T superior to Julia in everything minus spins. Liza T lacks that womanly maturity but she does have maturity. It's getting there. What I've always loved about Liza T is her ability to perform. She digs down into her music and performs, connecting with the audience and the judges and giving that little extra energy to her movements. I can't recall ever seeing her skate blankly through a program. She brings her programs to life...even if they aren't that excellent, though I do like her programs this year. She's not close to Ashley in terms of artistry/presentation yet but I do think she's far ahead of Julia.

    Liza's adjusting to her height and weight and it seems like things are starting to fall into place for her. I'm happy to see it!

    I agree about Julia. Technically, she's a strong skater in that she has the difficult jump combinations in her programs. In terms of quality...I think she's lacking a bit, for obvious reasons (in terms of jumps). I do think she's over-scored in PCS but that's what judges do when they get excited: PCS go up. I 100% prefer Gao's skating to Julia's...but that's just me. The judges like Julia more and while that sucks for Christina, that just mean she has to do what Ashley did and find a way to push herself to the front and make herself known.

  3. #183
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    Quote Originally Posted by tulosai View Post
    I wonder if Julia's ankle is giving her trouble. This many mistakes are uncharacteristic even if she's nervous.
    Unfortunately, your probably right. There was no rhythm to her jumping and it was pretty obvious she was impeded by the injury. I think it highly likely that she will be withdrawn from the final. This is her second injury this season, there is not enough proper recovery time, and I think it would be extremely foolish for her coaching team to risk aggravating the injury further. Any ankle injury has to be treated with respect. Its just not worth the risk. She is only 14 and has got her whole career ahead of her. They should just give her time to make a full recovery and get her ready for the second half of the season.

    Absolutely delighted for Tuk. What a comeback given all the problems she has had this season. Her injury and growth related problems are now well behind her.

    Many congratulations to Ashley. The cleanest program of the night, the best I have ever seen her skate, and the deserved winner. If she can up her technical content, she can break 130. As someone who was a massive Sasha Cohen fan, absolutely thrilled for John Nicks given all the frustration he had to endure trying to get Sasha to put two clean programs together in one competition. Ashley showed well and truly how should be done in this competition. Hope she can get a consistent 3x3 combination together, in which case a gold medal at 2013 Worlds will be within her sights. I don't think Kim Yu Na or Miki will be coming back, my view is that Mao's best days are behind her, the Russian newbies need at least a couple of more years to get their PCS up, and Kostner will be her only real competition (although Akiko has a shot too)
    Last edited by Mao88; 11-17-2012 at 03:14 PM.

  4. #184
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    On a scale of 1-10 how insane am I for enjoying Elizaveta's skate more? I really do feel like I shouldn't.

  5. #185
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mao88 View Post
    Unfortunately, your probably right. There was no rhythm to her jumping and it was pretty obvious she was impeded by the injury. I think it highly likely that she will be withdrawn from the final. This is her second injury this season, there is not enough proper recovery time, and I think it would be extremely foolish for her coaching team to risk aggravating the injury further. Any ankle injury has to be treated with respect. Its just not worth the risk. She is only 14 and has got her whole career ahead of her. They should just give her time to make a full recovery and get her ready for the second half of the season.

    Absolutely delighted for Tuk. What a comeback given all the problems she has had this season. Her injury and growth related problems are now well behind her.
    I hope the ankle injury wasn't that serious , Julia was still able to jump in FS
    she still has what 3 weeks before the GP Final ? and she can take 3-2 days off for rest

  6. #186
    Rejoicing in the land of Kwan kwanatic's Avatar
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    I'm not discrediting the fact that she had an injury, but is it possible Julia's making mistakes b/c she's in a different environment (ie. senior level skating) and is trying to adjust to the pressure? I mean, look at Adelina. She won everything in 2011 with many clean/near-clean skates...and look at her now. That's not to say the same thing will happen to Julia, only that just b/c you are near perfect as a junior doesn't necessarily mean that level of consistency and ease will transfer to the much more competitive and pressure filled senior level.

    I watched Julia last year at both of her JGPs, JGPF, junior worlds...she had ZERO competition when she skated (except Russian nationals). She was blowing skaters out of the water by 25+ points at every competition. Knowing you're that high above your competitors can put you at ease and allow you to just relax and skate. Now Julia is in a position where scores are very close. There is no 10+ point cushion after the SP which means she can't afford to make mistakes...that's where the pressure comes in to skate cleanly. This is something she hasn't had to deal with yet and so that pressure coupled with her own expectations are probably weighing on her, and then skating last doesn't help. She probably knew Ashley and Liza blew their programs out of the water which meant she had NO room for error today. If that was anywhere in her head it could have caused her to get nervous and lose her timing and make as many mistakes as she did.

    I say all that to say, yes the injury could have played a part...still, she hit her 3-3 in both programs so it can't have been hurting her that severely. To me, her sub-par performance can probably be attributed to pressure and nerves...

  7. #187
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanatic View Post
    I say all that to say, yes the injury could have played a part...still, she hit her 3-3 in both programs so it can't have been hurting her that severely. To me, her sub-par performance can probably be attributed to pressure and nerves...
    yeah I don't think her injury in the ankle is serious, she was still able to do her jumps in FS
    Julia has botched some jumps but she never has a complete meltdown see e.g. headcase Sotnikova, I believe Julia and Liza have the fighting spirit
    If you want nerves I think its better to compare the headcase Sotnikova .
    Last edited by dorispulaski; 11-19-2012 at 08:19 PM.

  8. #188
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    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    I hope the ankle injury wasn't that serious , Julia was still able to jump in FS
    she still has what 3 weeks before the GP Final ? and she can take 3-2 days off for rest
    Personally, I don't think its worth the risk. You don't want to risk aggravating it further and making it a long term problem. She is going to lose a significant amount of training time anyway recovering. Accordingly, she has no realistic chance of winning as she would be going into the competition somewhat rusty from the lack of training time. Far better to focus on her long term future

  9. #189
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanatic View Post
    IMO (purely my opinion) I find Liza T superior to Julia in everything minus spins. Liza T lacks that womanly maturity but she does have maturity. It's getting there. What I've always loved about Liza T is her ability to perform. She digs down into her music and performs, connecting with the audience and the judges and giving that little extra energy to her movements. I can't recall ever seeing her skate blankly through a program. She brings her programs to life...even if they aren't that excellent, though I do like her programs this year. She's not close to Ashley in terms of artistry/presentation yet but I do think she's far ahead of Julia.

    Liza's adjusting to her height and weight and it seems like things are starting to fall into place for her. I'm happy to see it!

    I agree about Julia. Technically, she's a strong skater in that she has the difficult jump combinations in her programs. In terms of quality...I think she's lacking a bit, for obvious reasons (in terms of jumps). I do think she's over-scored in PCS but that's what judges do when they get excited: PCS go up. I 100% prefer Gao's skating to Julia's...but that's just me. The judges like Julia more and while that sucks for Christina, that just mean she has to do what Ashley did and find a way to push herself to the front and make herself known.
    I don't think we are that far off in our opinions. I feel Liza seems to show a bit more maturity, but she's always seemed to look older than she is. But I don't think e.g., that her flirtiness and seemingly mature movements actually have a great deal of depth. A bit more studied than actually expressive of mature emotion which can only come with growth and experience, IMO. And, at this stage, IMO, Christina Gao is far and away superior in her subtlety of expression and her elegance on the ice than both Julia and Liza. This is really a Christina Gao I've never seen before. I think the combination of Gao's growth as a person and a skater, and her moving to new coaches has really brought out more of who she is on the ice.

    Totally agree with you that at this stage, Liza T has much more maturity in her expressiveness than Julia. The problem for Liza right now is that she's adjusting to her new body. Still, underneath her expressiveness, I find Liza a bit cold. With Gao, I feel a lot more warmth, but yes these girls are all very young and have a lot of developing to do yet on the ice.


    Quote Originally Posted by Mao88 View Post
    Unfortunately, your probably right. There was no rhythm to her jumping and it was pretty obvious she was impeded by the injury. I think it highly likely that she will be withdrawn from the final. This is her second injury this season, there is not enough recover time, and I think it would be extremely foolish for her coaching team to risk aggravating the injury further. Any ankle injury has to be treated with respect. Its just not worth the risk. She is only 14 and has got her whole career ahead of her. They should just give her time to make a full recovery and get her ready for the second half of the season.

    Absolutely delighted for Tuk. What a comeback given all the problems she has had this season. Her injury and growth related problems are now well behind her.

    Many congratulations to Ashley. The cleanest program of the night, the best I have ever seen her skate, and the deserved winner. If she can up her technical content, she can break 130
    ITA that Julia had no rhythm to her jumping, she also had no flow out of her jumps -- likely due to her injury for the most part. But if her coaching team didn't have her pull out of TEB, I doubt they will necessarily have her pull out of the GPF. Largely because Julia is not old enough to go to Worlds her team probably feel that GPF will give her an opportunity to further impress the judges and make a strong statement for being seen as a top contender when she is able to fully compete at the senior level.

    Re Ashley's technical content: IMO, Ashley skated brilliantly and with great technique. She's pacing herself in a very smart way, IMO. She'll put in the 3/3 when she and her coach feel she's ready. They are not about being desperate and rushing things. Talk about "making a statement" with the judges, Ashley is proving her mettle without a doubt!


    ETA:

    BTW, kwanatic, I 99% agree with your #186 post. I think for Julia, it was likely a combination of the injury and the pressure of competing in talented senior field.
    Last edited by Art&Sport; 11-17-2012 at 03:23 PM.

  10. #190
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mao88 View Post
    Personally, I don't think its worth the risk. You don't want to risk aggravating it further and making it a long term problem. She is going to lose a significant amount of training time anyway recovering. Accordingly, she has no realistic chance of winning as she would be going into the competition somewhat rusty from the lack of training time. Far better to focus on her long term future
    we will have to wait in a few weeks how serious was her ankle injury if they will pull Julia out or not
    but do note Julia is a hardworking skater so it might be hard to convince her, Tutberidze even said when she was injured before finlandia and took a week off she was insisting she be on the ice and train with her left foot instead

  11. #191
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    Quote Originally Posted by Art&Sport View Post
    Re Ashley's technical content: IMO, Ashley skated brilliantly and with great technique. She's pacing herself in a very smart way, IMO. She'll put in the 3/3 when she and her coach feel she's ready. They are not about being desperate and rushing things. Talk about "making a statement" with the judges, Ashley is proving her mettle without a doubt!
    I think your probably right. My view is she will probably deploy the 3x3 combination at the Four Continents (its not worth risking it at the Grand Prix final or Nationals). If she can then get herself entered into an additional competition between then and Worlds, that would set her up nicely for Worlds

  12. #192
    Rejoicing in the land of Kwan kwanatic's Avatar
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    Re: Ashley adding difficulty, I'm sure it's in the plans but at this point it's not beneficial to go for tougher content b/c she's winning well with what she has now. It's kind of a Carolina Kostner situation: why add tougher elements which you run the risk of screwing up if what you're doing cleanly is working well? More than that, Ashley's consistent delivery of her 6-triple program is more than what most of her competition is putting out right now anyway which puts her head-and-shoulders above them. I don't think she needs a 3-3 in the FS. If she wanted to up the tech content, the only thing she needs to do is switch the 2a-2t to a 2a-3t...the rest of the program is excellent. She's scored 127+ twice now so if she adds that combination she'd push herself into that incredible 130 range. It'd be great but at this point it's not completely necessary.

    Where I would like to see her add the 3-3 is for the SP. In the interest of keeping herself right in the mix and giving herself a boost, that 3f-3t would be what she needs to separate herself from the field even more. The SP was her weak spot so I do think keeping it as is so far has been a good move in terms of helping her build confidence. For the GPF, I'd expect to see her add in that 3-3 b/c the pool of skaters will be deep and most will have 3-3s.

  13. #193
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    This is why I love Liza so much...she always gives it all not like Adelina...so Tuk with gp and weight problems and not forget injury last mount delivered better than all the russians so proud of her..i had e feeling that will see her in GPF...and I was right!:X World team will be for sure made from Liza Adelina and is btw Leonova and Korobeiynikova!

  14. #194
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanatic View Post
    Re: Ashley adding difficulty, I'm sure it's in the plans but at this point it's not beneficial to go for tougher content b/c she's winning well with what she has now. It's kind of a Carolina Kostner situation: why add tougher elements which you run the risk of screwing up if what you're doing cleanly is working well? More than that, Ashley's consistent delivery of her 6-triple program is more than what most of her competition is putting out right now anyway which puts her head-and-shoulders above them. I don't think she needs a 3-3 in the FS. If she wanted to up the tech content, the only thing she needs to do is switch the 2a-2t to a 2a-3t...the rest of the program is excellent. She's scored 127+ twice now so if she adds that combination she'd push herself into that incredible 130 range. It'd be great but at this point it's not completely necessary.

    Where I would like to see her add the 3-3 is for the SP. In the interest of keeping herself right in the mix and giving herself a boost, that 3f-3t would be what she needs to separate herself from the field even more. The SP was her weak spot so I do think keeping it as is so far has been a good move in terms of helping her build confidence. For the GPF, I'd expect to see her add in that 3-3 b/c the pool of skaters will be deep and most will have 3-3s.
    Interesting. You may be right, but I think Nicks and Ashley will make the final determination. I do love the way Ashley opens her fp with that beautiful triple jump combo, hands overhead on the final jump. I have to take a deep breath and sigh with admiration and exultation the way Ashley is skating these days. She went through a lot and she took stock of herself and not only persevered, she's shining brightly. Cheering Ashley and all the ladies I enjoy watching on ... to take the sport by storm and bring the ladies event back to prominence!

    Did you happen to see Ashley's tweet pre-TEB about her Nike endorsement deal? Yay!

  15. #195
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    Darn my friend made me drive order to his house to wash cars and I missed some awesome skates. Boooo. I guess I will have to watch the videos when they are up. Nice to hear especially that Liza killed it, considering her struggles earlier this season. Congrats to Ashley!

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