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Thread: Ladies: US Nationals predictions as of now

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    Custom Title skateluvr's Avatar
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    Ladies: US Nationals predictions as of now

    It looks like 4 people will fight for 3 spots. Wagner is gold unless she has a bad day. Gao is doing the impossible-skating better since going to Harvard-full time? Gracie may have nerves with expectations. Agnes wants to be 1st but realistically she knows she can get silver or bronze if she skates her best. Do you see Mirai sneaking in? Angela Wang? Will AC be healed and do the beauty thing with the spins/spirals and get judges pity vote? Has Caroline got any hope of the podium or is she likely done even with USFSA as a podium contender?

    What will this years podium be and why? Feel free to do the mens etc if you're so inclined or start other thread.

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    Hmmmmm.....I think Ashley will be gold, Gracie silver, and bronze is up for grabs.

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    Spiral Lover tulosai's Avatar
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    I think that if they skate as they have been this season so far the most likely order is actually

    1.Wagner, duh. In all seriousness, if anyone disagrees I'd really like to hear why/a different perspective but I think she has become the golden girl- and deservedly so. I am still not a fan of hers, honestly, but I am in awe of her, her determination, her hard work, and the VAST change she has undergone since the move to Nicks. I am also happy for him-they seem like a perfect team.

    2. Gao. I know a lot of people say Gold, but Gao this season has a maturity and a consistency that Gold has lacked. If she skates at Nationals like she did at her GP events, I'd send her.

    3. Gold a VERY close third. A clean GOld certainly beats a flawed Gao (even slightly flawed), as well.

    4. Nagasu or Agnes. My heart is with Nagasu. I'll have a stronger opinion one way or another between them after we see what goes down at NHK.

  4. #4
    Miserere Nobis
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    1. Wagner (duh)
    2. Gold (when she's clean, she's virtually untouchable)
    3. Gao or Zawadzki
    4. Gao or Zawadzki
    5. Nagasu
    6. Zhang

  5. #5
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    1.Wagner, duh. In all seriousness, if anyone disagrees I'd really like to hear why/a different perspective but I think she has become the golden girl- and deservedly so. I am still not a fan of hers, honestly, but I am in awe of her, her determination, her hard work, and the VAST change she has undergone since the move to Nicks. I am also happy for him-they seem like a perfect team.
    Here's one: History will be not in her favor. No one has successfully defended a US title since Kwan in 2005 - and no one has successfully defended a first win of the US title in almost 30 years, IIRC.

    There's a reason why that is so. The pressure at Nationals can be intense- I think I've even heard some skaters say they feel the most pressure at their national championships (not worlds). This time it will test Wagner in a way she's never been tested before, IMO. If she truly is the cream of the crop and wins the SP, she might be skating last, and possibly after one (or more) of her hungry competitors throws it down.

    ________

    That said, she does seem to be putting some distance between herself and the rest of the field. If she's getting 127 internationally for her FS now, if she adds a 3-3 (or upgrades the 2A/2T to 2A/3T), taking the National inflation factor into account, we could be looking at ~140 here for a clean skate at Natls. So, THEORETICALLY, for the door to open for Gold, Zawadzki or Gao, not only do they have to be on, but they will probably need Wagner to make mistakes (likely big ones), or WD.
    Last edited by R.D.; 11-18-2012 at 12:17 AM.

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    1 Wagner

    ....

    2 Gold
    3 Nagasu
    4 Gao
    5 Zawadzki

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    Winner is too obvious.

    At the beginning of the season, I would've had Gold as the sure thing for the 2nd slot, but it's pretty clear now that Mirai, Gao and Zawadski aren't just going to let her walk away with it. I still have Gold as the favorite, though. Over the last two seasons, I don't think her consistency has been touched by any of the others. I still think she's far more likely to hit than miss at any given competition and I don't have that same feeling of certainty about any of the others as of yet.

    It's too bad the majority of them will miss the team tbh.

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    1) Wagner
    -20 points gap-
    2) Gold
    3) Gao
    4) Nagasu
    5) Zawadzki
    But I really hope that Mirai can place in the top 3!!

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    I hope the judges dont show favoritism or look at past competitions and simply judge what the skater does at the moment.
    If they cant perform well at Nationals, then they wont be able to do it worlds either. That being said, I hope the results are like this:
    1. Wagner - If fully recovered; and no mistakes
    2. Nagasu - Her skating appears to be getting better as the season goes on. Whatever she did in the off season appears to be working for her.
    3. Gold - She's a good jumper. Also seems to be improving too. Needs more experience and she will be great.

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    Most likely:

    1.) Wagner
    2.) Gold
    3.) Gao
    4.) Nagasu
    5.) Zawadzki

    But I'd say 1 and 2 could be Gold or Wagner, 3 and 4 Nagasu or Gao, and Zawadzki I'm guessing will be 5th but could definitely be on the podium if she puts it together and the others aren't all perfect.

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    i dont know,
    but i pretty sure it will be
    1) ashley wagner has title. 2nd straight.

    the rest of spots are up for grabs,
    between,
    Alissa Czisny, GracieGold, Christina Gao, Mirai Nagasu, Caroline Zhang (my hope-not theirs)
    I would like to put Caroline Zhang in there but have previously shown don't want her, will purposely look for her faults and ignore others.

    Also probably, is hannah miller jumping up, angela wang, maybe vanessa lam.

  12. #12
    Miserere Nobis
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    Quote Originally Posted by FSGMT View Post
    1) Wagner
    -20 points gap-
    2) Gold
    3) Gao
    4) Nagasu
    5) Zawadzki
    But I really hope that Mirai can place in the top 3!!
    Nagasu behind Gao? Only if Gao is clean as a whistle (and maybe not even then, IMO).

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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    Nagasu behind Gao? Only if Gao is clean as a whistle (and maybe not even then, IMO).
    Gao beat Nagasu at Nationals last year and wasn't clean then...

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    Gao beat Nagasu at Nationals last year and wasn't clean then...
    Neither was Nagasu.

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    It's an interesting field, and RD makes a good point about the challenge of repeating. Wagner was the favorite for GPF and that didn't work out to well. If Mirai gets her head in the game, she has the most upside imho. Right now she's a little below the radar, so maybe won't feel the pressure so much.

    Nagasu
    Wagner
    Gao
    Gold

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