Ladies: US Nationals predictions as of now | Golden Skate

Ladies: US Nationals predictions as of now

skateluvr

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 23, 2011
It looks like 4 people will fight for 3 spots. Wagner is gold unless she has a bad day. Gao is doing the impossible-skating better since going to Harvard-full time? Gracie may have nerves with expectations. Agnes wants to be 1st but realistically she knows she can get silver or bronze if she skates her best. Do you see Mirai sneaking in? Angela Wang? Will AC be healed and do the beauty thing with the spins/spirals and get judges pity vote? Has Caroline got any hope of the podium or is she likely done even with USFSA as a podium contender?

What will this years podium be and why? Feel free to do the mens etc if you're so inclined or start other thread.
 

noskates

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 11, 2012
Hmmmmm.....I think Ashley will be gold, Gracie silver, and bronze is up for grabs.
 

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
I think that if they skate as they have been this season so far the most likely order is actually

1.Wagner, duh. In all seriousness, if anyone disagrees I'd really like to hear why/a different perspective but I think she has become the golden girl- and deservedly so. I am still not a fan of hers, honestly, but I am in awe of her, her determination, her hard work, and the VAST change she has undergone since the move to Nicks. I am also happy for him-they seem like a perfect team.

2. Gao. I know a lot of people say Gold, but Gao this season has a maturity and a consistency that Gold has lacked. If she skates at Nationals like she did at her GP events, I'd send her.

3. Gold a VERY close third. A clean GOld certainly beats a flawed Gao (even slightly flawed), as well.

4. Nagasu or Agnes. My heart is with Nagasu. I'll have a stronger opinion one way or another between them after we see what goes down at NHK.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
1. Wagner (duh)
2. Gold (when she's clean, she's virtually untouchable)
3. Gao or Zawadzki
4. Gao or Zawadzki
5. Nagasu
6. Zhang
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
1.Wagner, duh. In all seriousness, if anyone disagrees I'd really like to hear why/a different perspective but I think she has become the golden girl- and deservedly so. I am still not a fan of hers, honestly, but I am in awe of her, her determination, her hard work, and the VAST change she has undergone since the move to Nicks. I am also happy for him-they seem like a perfect team.

Here's one: History will be not in her favor. No one has successfully defended a US title since Kwan in 2005 - and no one has successfully defended a first win of the US title in almost 30 years, IIRC.

There's a reason why that is so. The pressure at Nationals can be intense- I think I've even heard some skaters say they feel the most pressure at their national championships (not worlds). This time it will test Wagner in a way she's never been tested before, IMO. If she truly is the cream of the crop and wins the SP, she might be skating last, and possibly after one (or more) of her hungry competitors throws it down.

________

That said, she does seem to be putting some distance between herself and the rest of the field. If she's getting 127 internationally for her FS now, if she adds a 3-3 (or upgrades the 2A/2T to 2A/3T), taking the National inflation factor into account, we could be looking at ~140 here for a clean skate at Natls. So, THEORETICALLY, for the door to open for Gold, Zawadzki or Gao, not only do they have to be on, but they will probably need Wagner to make mistakes (likely big ones), or WD.
 
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Kissx3

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 23, 2009
Winner is too obvious.

At the beginning of the season, I would've had Gold as the sure thing for the 2nd slot, but it's pretty clear now that Mirai, Gao and Zawadski aren't just going to let her walk away with it. I still have Gold as the favorite, though. Over the last two seasons, I don't think her consistency has been touched by any of the others. I still think she's far more likely to hit than miss at any given competition and I don't have that same feeling of certainty about any of the others as of yet.

It's too bad the majority of them will miss the team tbh.
 

FSGMT

Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 10, 2012
1) Wagner
-20 points gap- :biggrin:
2) Gold
3) Gao
4) Nagasu
5) Zawadzki
But I really hope that Mirai can place in the top 3!!
 

fallingsk8er

On the Ice
Joined
Apr 19, 2011
I hope the judges dont show favoritism or look at past competitions and simply judge what the skater does at the moment.
If they cant perform well at Nationals, then they wont be able to do it worlds either. That being said, I hope the results are like this:
1. Wagner - If fully recovered; and no mistakes
2. Nagasu - Her skating appears to be getting better as the season goes on. Whatever she did in the off season appears to be working for her.
3. Gold - She's a good jumper. Also seems to be improving too. Needs more experience and she will be great.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Most likely:

1.) Wagner
2.) Gold
3.) Gao
4.) Nagasu
5.) Zawadzki

But I'd say 1 and 2 could be Gold or Wagner, 3 and 4 Nagasu or Gao, and Zawadzki I'm guessing will be 5th but could definitely be on the podium if she puts it together and the others aren't all perfect.
 

fairly4

Medalist
Joined
Oct 28, 2007
i dont know,
but i pretty sure it will be
1) ashley wagner has title. 2nd straight.

the rest of spots are up for grabs,
between,
Alissa Czisny, GracieGold, Christina Gao, Mirai Nagasu, Caroline Zhang (my hope-not theirs)
I would like to put Caroline Zhang in there but have previously shown don't want her, will purposely look for her faults and ignore others.

Also probably, is hannah miller jumping up, angela wang, maybe vanessa lam.
 

ivy

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 6, 2005
It's an interesting field, and RD makes a good point about the challenge of repeating. Wagner was the favorite for GPF and that didn't work out to well. If Mirai gets her head in the game, she has the most upside imho. Right now she's a little below the radar, so maybe won't feel the pressure so much.

Nagasu
Wagner
Gao
Gold
 

flying camel

Medalist
Joined
Nov 16, 2005
It's an interesting field, and RD makes a good point about the challenge of repeating. Wagner was the favorite for GPF and that didn't work out to well. If Mirai gets her head in the game, she has the most upside imho. Right now she's a little below the radar, so maybe won't feel the pressure so much.

Nagasu
Wagner
Gao
Gold

I like:

1. Wagner
2. Gao
3. Gold
4. Nagasu
 

Tonichelle

Idita-Rock-n-Roll
Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 27, 2003
It's an interesting field, and RD makes a good point about the challenge of repeating. Wagner was the favorite for GPF and that didn't work out to well. If Mirai gets her head in the game, she has the most upside imho. Right now she's a little below the radar, so maybe won't feel the pressure so much.

Nagasu
Wagner
Gao
Gold

A freak fall on the 2a doesnt worry me that she's on a decline. She fought hard after that fall - and in pain! - and still came away with silver. Not too shabby.
 

IleK

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 11, 2012
It is hard to say who is going to be on the podium. One thing I know, Ashley will be, I don't know if in first but I think that you should pray that it will be this way. It is a pretty important year and she has the experience needed to make the world podium. I wouldn't bet on anyone else for the podium. I like Gao but she is not ready yet for such a challenge, she will not make top 10. I used to love Mirai in 2010, I still like her but she has a lot to work and there is not enough time.Maybe next year if she continues to improve she will make the big surprise and make the olympic team for the second time. I trust Gracie for the silver, she is too young for the world podium with Yuna, Mao, Caro and Ashley in the mix but she can make the top 10. So please Ashley recover qiuckly and win the US title and Gracie jump, jump, jump and take the silver!
 
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