Ladies: US Nationals predictions as of now

ForeverFish said:

Neither was Nagasu.

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Yeah, of course. But Mirai, score wise, was not that different on the GP last season as she was this season, one good event in the 170s and then a blah event. Then she blew it at Nationals. There's no saying she'll skate clean this time around either. I'm glad she is skating better but the judges haven't been too kind with PCS or lenient with her URs for the past few years so idk if I expect that to change this time around.

I think that the top 10 will be
1. Ashley Wagner
2. Gracie Gold
3. Mirai Nagasu
4. Agnes Zawadzki
5. Christina Gao
6. Leah Keiser
7. Caroline Zhang
8. Hannah Miller
9. Angela Wang
10. Vanessa Lam

Ashley Wagner should place first. Gracie Gold is the next logical choice as a member of the current generation capable of scoring well, enhancing the chances for three possible spots for 2014. If Wagner can place top 4 at Worlds, then a second skater in the top 10 should be enough for the spots.

However, we must consider others also. Zhang, Zawadski, Gao and Nagasu are essentially all the same as choices for the world team - none are confident choices - and if Czizny skates, she must also be considered. But she is not a viable choice for the world team either.

WAGNER
GOLD

then, GAO
ZAWADSKI
NAGASU
CZIZNY (if she skates)
ZHANG

and the rest.

Well, I'm going to predict Mirai on the podium even if no one else is. It's because it's what I want, of course, but also because it's hardly impossible. Good luck to Mirai and I hope she finds her magic again.

Personally, I don't think it's such a shoo-in that Ashely will win. But hopefully she will skate the way she did at her two GP events. And if she does, no other U.S. lady has been skating nearly as well.

Layfan said:

Well, I'm going to predict Mirai on the podium even if no one else is. It's because it's what I want, of course, but also because it's hardly impossible. Good luck to Mirai and I hope she finds her magic again.

Personally, I don't think it's such a shoo-in that Ashely will win. But hopefully she will skate the way she did at her two GP events. And if she does, no other U.S. lady has been skating nearly as well.

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i agree with you. Ashley's 2nd title is hers to lose. I sincerely hope that the pressure of defending won't get to her.
Mirai is my pick for silver and Gao for bronze. we'll see.

Tonichelle said:

A freak fall on the 2a doesnt worry me that she's on a decline. She fought hard after that fall - and in pain! - and still came away with silver. Not too shabby.

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Don't think Wagner is on the decline at all, rather on a general upswing. But she still seems a work in progress to me, and figuring out how the be the front runner, rather then the hungry up and comer. I do think Mirai as a little more natural talent, but it's undisciplined mostly. You never know when lightening is going to strike!

Posted this on the State of American Ladies thread too, but here's a very recent article (12/19) in which Gracie Gold talks about preparation for Nats and beyond:

http://espn.go.com/espnw/headliners...ure-skater-gracie-gold-focuses-growing-skills

She clearly knows what's expected of her, even if she's only been a senior for half a season. I fully expect to see her put all of her fight into a top 2 finish at Nats (and subsequently, top 10 at Worlds).

Well I feel like the top 4 is likely Wagner, Nagasu, Gold and Gao in some order. I think The only one with a real shot to threaten Wagner for gold is Nagasu. She still has a higher free skate and sp international score than Wagner and is clearly on the upswing in a big way. She hit a triple/triple for the first time since 2010 and she's way faster than she was last year. But likely if Nagasu and Wagner both skate their best, I think this year the judges will lean towards Wagner. She's been basically dominant all season and even with two falls she got a very strong fs score. It is interesting to see that if both ladies execute all their elements as planned, Mirai actually has 3.43 point advantage when you add the sp and fs. Not that that seems to mean too much these days, and both ladies could certainly change things around, I just thought it was interesting to note.

Wagner will likely need to be run over by the Zamboni and have the other ladies really skate great for her not to win. But then again, that kind of expectation could just be what it takes for her not to repeat. Gao has been having a great season and even though the gpf wasn't stellar for her, I think she should be really proud with what she did there and in the grand prix. Gold had a rough start but it sounds like she's getting in the mental space to really bring it for Nationals. If she hits I won't be surprised if the judges reward her, but if Nagasu and Wagner hit too I think she'll have a hard time getting past them.

Agnes could sneak in there, but I've been underwhelmed by her so far. Alissa I think will really be setting up building blocks for next season if she's able to compete. Someone mentioned at a recent show she did a double axel and a triple toe. Good to see that she's doing some real jumping. I wonder if it will be there enough for her to execute a sp and lp. If she is back to her 2011 nationals form then things could get REALLY interesting.

I think Wagner's going to win. I wouldn't be so fast to put Gold in 2nd, she doesn't always rise up to the hype. For some reason I'm thinking Mirai for 2nd, and Christina for 3rd.

Its obviously Ashley's to lose. Coming in a reigning champion is tough. We shall see if she can do it, power to her if she can.

I on the other hand, am rooting immensely for Mirai to kick some butt & take names. She has the talent, hopefully she can wrap her around that and take charge.

I hope Alissa is healing & will be able to compete to the best of her ability

What I think will happen, sits on the opposite side of the spectrum from what I want to happen.
Dream: Nagasu, Czisny, Zhang
Possibly: Wagner, Nagasu, Gold

I cant wait to see how it plays out.

Gold: Nagasu
Silver: Ashley
Bronze: Gold
Pewter: Gao (she moves up a spot - finally!!)
5th - Czisny

Becki said:

Gold: Nagasu
Silver: Ashley
Bronze: Gold
Pewter: Gao (she moves up a spot - finally!!)
5th - Czisny

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Nagasu has been performing well and flying under the radar. I think that she has a great chance at winning this. All bets are currently on Wagner and Gold. Also, should Wang hold it together she too can make a statement. Can't wait to see how it unfolds.

I think Mirai could win this as well, I think she will thrive being under the radar. She has progressed nicely this season. She has been working hard to regain her top form and her coaching change has been positive. If she continues on the track and correct the UR the international judges would embrace her.

I think Ashley will definitely been on the podium and the World team. She's on fire but there is a lot of pressure on a reigning National Champion.

Gracie seems a little juniorish to me but there is no doubt she has the tech content but she will have to be perfect her, I think. She has been hyped a lot it will be interesting to see if she can handle that along with the pressure that Nationals itself can bring.

Christina Gao has had a pretty good season if she has a solid short and long she could land on the podium as well.

I am not sure about Agnes, she is a great skater when she is on but lacks consistency.

I think Nationals is going to be one hell of a competition.....

Add me to those that think this is Ashley's title to lose as well. If she's healthy and trained, I think she is a fall and one or two lesser mistakes apart of the pack, just based on her WC '12 and GP results.

I would LOVE for Mirai to come out and blow the field away and win Gold. But silver would be awesome, too! If Mirai can rotate her jumps and not make silly spinning mistakes, I really think she could be a formidable competition for Ashley. But right now, this competition feels like MK in 1999-2002 when it really was her National Titles to win/lose. And the 1st time since 2006 (Sasha) that there is a very clear front runner.

I never predict well, but I am going to guess Nagasu, Wagner, Gold and Gao on the podium, with Zawadski (no idea how to spell Agnes last name!) and Czisny rounding out the Final Flight. I'd love for Zhang to sneak in there somewhere.

ForeverFish said:

Neither was Nagasu.

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So, that part is expected.



Anyway Wagner will have to fall atleast 3 times to lose. The USFSA knows full well that Wagner is their only hope for Worlds this year, they arent going to dare send her to Worlds as anything less than the National Champion barring a complete and total meltdown. The other U.S ladies arent consistent internationally, and dont even score that well internationally right now when they skate well, so the U.S judges will be well aware Ashley is given a huge cushion if need be.

If everyone skates cleanly Gold will take 2nd. Given that Nagasu and Zawadski are less consistent than Gold, her chances are all the better. Gao is the most consistent of all the skaters, other than possibly Wagner, but her scoring potential is too low, it would be hard to take 2nd.

All that said my predictions are:

Gold- Wagner
Silver- Gold
Bronze- Gao
4th- Nagasu
5th- Zawadski

Not sure after that but I dont believe either Czisny or Zhang will even finish in the top 8.

can someone please explain the hype around angela wang and none of the other new seniors? hannah miller can place ahead of her and has, the only thing that separates them is a triple triple. also i saw that someone predicted leah keiser will place ahead of both of them...i highly doubt that will happen unless there are big mistakes made, they both have way better PCS (keiser is very boring and has awkward arms IMO). leah might have her jumps but has been inconsistent. anyway, wagner is a hands down gold unless something happens. i hope alissa can pull it together and skate well despite where she places.

Leah has been rewarded domestically when she skates well, and she does have a technical edge over Miller what with the 3lz-3t in both programs and a 2a-3t in the FS. Problem is, she's always been inconsistent, and it seems to have gotten worse this season as she's grown quite a bit. A clean FS from Leah could score 120 or come close to it (she's put up numbers in that range before - sectionals last season, a summer comp this August, etc), but then again, she's also very capable of falling twice and making other errors and scoring in the low, or even sub, 90s so it's really hard to tell with her. Hannah and Angela are likely to get better PCS, I agree with that, although actually last year at Nats, Angela's PCS were really low, she did well solely because of TES. Also, Hannah can definitely beat Angela and probably will unless Angela skates a clean SP with her 3lz-3t (which she only managed to do at one of her 3 JGP events this fall), then Angela will likely manage to come out slightly ahead because she's a strong LP skater and plans 7 triples in her LP vs. Hannah's 6 (I wish her program was less front loaded though!!). I think there's hype on Angela because she has a pretty solid 3lz-3t, good basics, and is pretty consistent, at least in the LP. She's also already gone through puberty and doesn't have itty bitty jumps or issues rotating them so that's pretty much what separates her from Hannah and Leah at this point.

thanks for explaining. hannah does have small jumps, but she is also a very tiny girl. i don't think she'll grow much more either because she is already 16. i think she'll have two solid skates at nats, she has been gaining momentum all year. like you said, leah is a toss up and angela can be too (one bad GP, one good GP, didn't get on the podium at GPF like everyone thought she would). regardless all 3 of these ladies will most likely be in the top 10 and i personally think they also have the ability to compete with christina, gracie, and caroline.

^^ I agree and think you could be right, I actually think Hannah and Angela will probably beat Caroline, and Leah is capable of doing so as well if good Leah shows up at Nationals instead of her evil twin. Hannah likely will stay tiny, but filling out or growing taller at all could hurt her already small jumps as we've seen a lot of skaters struggle with URs once they grow up physically, like Kanako and Mirai, and they had bigger jumps to begin with. But for now the jumps seem consistent enough and presentation is definitely a strength for Hannah. As for Angela I think nailing the SP will be key - she could likely still do well with a 3lz-2t as her combo instead of the 3-3, but any bigger error than that could hurt her a lot and effect her PCS in the FS and her ability to pull up in the rankings overall (we saw at the JGPF, even though she was 2nd in the FS, she still ended up a distant 4th overall after Hannah and Anna followed up their great SPs with programs almost as good as Angela's clean FS - and that was in a smaller and less deep field than Nationals).

No one even mentions the qualifiers. All 3 winners have high scores (and PC 2nd place). There was no inflation, they had to earn those scores. Vanessa with 177+ only Ashley is higher. Samantha 163+, Ashley Cain, Courtney 161+. Those are good scores with local judges not used to the PCS inflation. Don't count them out. Programs are on Ice Network.