Ladies: US Nationals predictions as of now

[flying camel]

It's an interesting field, and RD makes a good point about the challenge of repeating. Wagner was the favorite for GPF and that didn't work out to well. If Mirai gets her head in the game, she has the most upside imho. Right now she's a little below the radar, so maybe won't feel the pressure so much.

Nagasu
Wagner
Gao
Gold

I like:

1. Wagner
2. Gao
3. Gold
4. Nagasu

[Tonichelle]

It's an interesting field, and RD makes a good point about the challenge of repeating. Wagner was the favorite for GPF and that didn't work out to well. If Mirai gets her head in the game, she has the most upside imho. Right now she's a little below the radar, so maybe won't feel the pressure so much.

Nagasu
Wagner
Gao
Gold

A freak fall on the 2a doesnt worry me that she's on a decline. She fought hard after that fall - and in pain! - and still came away with silver. Not too shabby.

[R.D.]

She fell on a 3S as well, right?

[Tonichelle]

She fell on a 3S as well, right?

yes, and I'm not ignoring that fact, but it was the 2a that was the one that was definitely more memorable and jarring in the program.

[IleK]

It is hard to say who is going to be on the podium. One thing I know, Ashley will be, I don't know if in first but I think that you should pray that it will be this way. It is a pretty important year and she has the experience needed to make the world podium. I wouldn't bet on anyone else for the podium. I like Gao but she is not ready yet for such a challenge, she will not make top 10. I used to love Mirai in 2010, I still like her but she has a lot to work and there is not enough time.Maybe next year if she continues to improve she will make the big surprise and make the olympic team for the second time. I trust Gracie for the silver, she is too young for the world podium with Yuna, Mao, Caro and Ashley in the mix but she can make the top 10. So please Ashley recover qiuckly and win the US title and Gracie jump, jump, jump and take the silver!

[silverlake22]

Neither was Nagasu.

Yeah, of course. But Mirai, score wise, was not that different on the GP last season as she was this season, one good event in the 170s and then a blah event. Then she blew it at Nationals. There's no saying she'll skate clean this time around either. I'm glad she is skating better but the judges haven't been too kind with PCS or lenient with her URs for the past few years so idk if I expect that to change this time around.

[Reginald]

I think that the top 10 will be
1. Ashley Wagner
2. Gracie Gold
3. Mirai Nagasu
4. Agnes Zawadzki
5. Christina Gao
6. Leah Keiser
7. Caroline Zhang
8. Hannah Miller
9. Angela Wang
10. Vanessa Lam

[Sk8Boi]

Ashley Wagner should place first. Gracie Gold is the next logical choice as a member of the current generation capable of scoring well, enhancing the chances for three possible spots for 2014. If Wagner can place top 4 at Worlds, then a second skater in the top 10 should be enough for the spots.

However, we must consider others also. Zhang, Zawadski, Gao and Nagasu are essentially all the same as choices for the world team - none are confident choices - and if Czizny skates, she must also be considered. But she is not a viable choice for the world team either.

WAGNER
GOLD

then, GAO
ZAWADSKI
NAGASU
CZIZNY (if she skates)
ZHANG

and the rest.

[Layfan]

Well, I'm going to predict Mirai on the podium even if no one else is. It's because it's what I want, of course, but also because it's hardly impossible. Good luck to Mirai and I hope she finds her magic again.

Personally, I don't think it's such a shoo-in that Ashely will win. But hopefully she will skate the way she did at her two GP events. And if she does, no other U.S. lady has been skating nearly as well.

[Tinymavy15]

Well, I'm going to predict Mirai on the podium even if no one else is. It's because it's what I want, of course, but also because it's hardly impossible. Good luck to Mirai and I hope she finds her magic again.

Personally, I don't think it's such a shoo-in that Ashely will win. But hopefully she will skate the way she did at her two GP events. And if she does, no other U.S. lady has been skating nearly as well.

i agree with you. Ashley's 2nd title is hers to lose. I sincerely hope that the pressure of defending won't get to her.
Mirai is my pick for silver and Gao for bronze. we'll see.

[ivy]

A freak fall on the 2a doesnt worry me that she's on a decline. She fought hard after that fall - and in pain! - and still came away with silver. Not too shabby.

Don't think Wagner is on the decline at all, rather on a general upswing. But she still seems a work in progress to me, and figuring out how the be the front runner, rather then the hungry up and comer. I do think Mirai as a little more natural talent, but it's undisciplined mostly. You never know when lightening is going to strike!

[ForeverFish]

Posted this on the State of American Ladies thread too, but here's a very recent article (12/19) in which Gracie Gold talks about preparation for Nats and beyond:

http://espn.go.com/espnw/headliners/...growing-skills

She clearly knows what's expected of her, even if she's only been a senior for half a season. I fully expect to see her put all of her fight into a top 2 finish at Nats (and subsequently, top 10 at Worlds).

[samson]

Well I feel like the top 4 is likely Wagner, Nagasu, Gold and Gao in some order. I think The only one with a real shot to threaten Wagner for gold is Nagasu. She still has a higher free skate and sp international score than Wagner and is clearly on the upswing in a big way. She hit a triple/triple for the first time since 2010 and she's way faster than she was last year. But likely if Nagasu and Wagner both skate their best, I think this year the judges will lean towards Wagner. She's been basically dominant all season and even with two falls she got a very strong fs score. It is interesting to see that if both ladies execute all their elements as planned, Mirai actually has 3.43 point advantage when you add the sp and fs. Not that that seems to mean too much these days, and both ladies could certainly change things around, I just thought it was interesting to note.

Wagner will likely need to be run over by the Zamboni and have the other ladies really skate great for her not to win. But then again, that kind of expectation could just be what it takes for her not to repeat. Gao has been having a great season and even though the gpf wasn't stellar for her, I think she should be really proud with what she did there and in the grand prix. Gold had a rough start but it sounds like she's getting in the mental space to really bring it for Nationals. If she hits I won't be surprised if the judges reward her, but if Nagasu and Wagner hit too I think she'll have a hard time getting past them.

Agnes could sneak in there, but I've been underwhelmed by her so far. Alissa I think will really be setting up building blocks for next season if she's able to compete. Someone mentioned at a recent show she did a double axel and a triple toe. Good to see that she's doing some real jumping. I wonder if it will be there enough for her to execute a sp and lp. If she is back to her 2011 nationals form then things could get REALLY interesting.

[blue_idealist]

I think Wagner's going to win. I wouldn't be so fast to put Gold in 2nd, she doesn't always rise up to the hype. For some reason I'm thinking Mirai for 2nd, and Christina for 3rd.

[Pikachuusb]

Its obviously Ashley's to lose. Coming in a reigning champion is tough. We shall see if she can do it, power to her if she can.

I on the other hand, am rooting immensely for Mirai to kick some butt & take names. She has the talent, hopefully she can wrap her around that and take charge.

I hope Alissa is healing & will be able to compete to the best of her ability

What I think will happen, sits on the opposite side of the spectrum from what I want to happen.
Dream: Nagasu, Czisny, Zhang
Possibly: Wagner, Nagasu, Gold

I cant wait to see how it plays out.