Pewter: Gao (she moves up a spot - finally!!)
5th - Czisny
Nagasu has been performing well and flying under the radar. I think that she has a great chance at winning this. All bets are currently on Wagner and Gold. Also, should Wang hold it together she too can make a statement. Can't wait to see how it unfolds.
Originally Posted by Becki
Keeper of the Kweens OGM.
I think Mirai could win this as well, I think she will thrive being under the radar. She has progressed nicely this season. She has been working hard to regain her top form and her coaching change has been positive. If she continues on the track and correct the UR the international judges would embrace her.
I think Ashley will definitely been on the podium and the World team. She's on fire but there is a lot of pressure on a reigning National Champion.
Gracie seems a little juniorish to me but there is no doubt she has the tech content but she will have to be perfect her, I think. She has been hyped a lot it will be interesting to see if she can handle that along with the pressure that Nationals itself can bring.
Christina Gao has had a pretty good season if she has a solid short and long she could land on the podium as well.
I am not sure about Agnes, she is a great skater when she is on but lacks consistency.
I think Nationals is going to be one hell of a competition.....
Add me to those that think this is Ashley's title to lose as well. If she's healthy and trained, I think she is a fall and one or two lesser mistakes apart of the pack, just based on her WC '12 and GP results.
I would LOVE for Mirai to come out and blow the field away and win Gold. But silver would be awesome, too! If Mirai can rotate her jumps and not make silly spinning mistakes, I really think she could be a formidable competition for Ashley. But right now, this competition feels like MK in 1999-2002 when it really was her National Titles to win/lose. And the 1st time since 2006 (Sasha) that there is a very clear front runner.
I never predict well, but I am going to guess Nagasu, Wagner, Gold and Gao on the podium, with Zawadski (no idea how to spell Agnes last name!) and Czisny rounding out the Final Flight. I'd love for Zhang to sneak in there somewhere.
Last edited by MKFSfan; 12-31-2012 at 12:03 PM.
So, that part is expected.
Originally Posted by ForeverFish
Anyway Wagner will have to fall atleast 3 times to lose. The USFSA knows full well that Wagner is their only hope for Worlds this year, they arent going to dare send her to Worlds as anything less than the National Champion barring a complete and total meltdown. The other U.S ladies arent consistent internationally, and dont even score that well internationally right now when they skate well, so the U.S judges will be well aware Ashley is given a huge cushion if need be.
If everyone skates cleanly Gold will take 2nd. Given that Nagasu and Zawadski are less consistent than Gold, her chances are all the better. Gao is the most consistent of all the skaters, other than possibly Wagner, but her scoring potential is too low, it would be hard to take 2nd.
All that said my predictions are:
Not sure after that but I dont believe either Czisny or Zhang will even finish in the top 8.
Last edited by pangtongfan; 01-01-2013 at 11:25 AM.
can someone please explain the hype around angela wang and none of the other new seniors? hannah miller can place ahead of her and has, the only thing that separates them is a triple triple. also i saw that someone predicted leah keiser will place ahead of both of them...i highly doubt that will happen unless there are big mistakes made, they both have way better PCS (keiser is very boring and has awkward arms IMO). leah might have her jumps but has been inconsistent. anyway, wagner is a hands down gold unless something happens. i hope alissa can pull it together and skate well despite where she places.
Leah has been rewarded domestically when she skates well, and she does have a technical edge over Miller what with the 3lz-3t in both programs and a 2a-3t in the FS. Problem is, she's always been inconsistent, and it seems to have gotten worse this season as she's grown quite a bit. A clean FS from Leah could score 120 or come close to it (she's put up numbers in that range before - sectionals last season, a summer comp this August, etc), but then again, she's also very capable of falling twice and making other errors and scoring in the low, or even sub, 90s so it's really hard to tell with her. Hannah and Angela are likely to get better PCS, I agree with that, although actually last year at Nats, Angela's PCS were really low, she did well solely because of TES. Also, Hannah can definitely beat Angela and probably will unless Angela skates a clean SP with her 3lz-3t (which she only managed to do at one of her 3 JGP events this fall), then Angela will likely manage to come out slightly ahead because she's a strong LP skater and plans 7 triples in her LP vs. Hannah's 6 (I wish her program was less front loaded though!!). I think there's hype on Angela because she has a pretty solid 3lz-3t, good basics, and is pretty consistent, at least in the LP. She's also already gone through puberty and doesn't have itty bitty jumps or issues rotating them so that's pretty much what separates her from Hannah and Leah at this point.
Last edited by silverlake22; 01-02-2013 at 07:25 AM.
thanks for explaining. hannah does have small jumps, but she is also a very tiny girl. i don't think she'll grow much more either because she is already 16. i think she'll have two solid skates at nats, she has been gaining momentum all year. like you said, leah is a toss up and angela can be too (one bad GP, one good GP, didn't get on the podium at GPF like everyone thought she would). regardless all 3 of these ladies will most likely be in the top 10 and i personally think they also have the ability to compete with christina, gracie, and caroline.
^^ I agree and think you could be right, I actually think Hannah and Angela will probably beat Caroline, and Leah is capable of doing so as well if good Leah shows up at Nationals instead of her evil twin. Hannah likely will stay tiny, but filling out or growing taller at all could hurt her already small jumps as we've seen a lot of skaters struggle with URs once they grow up physically, like Kanako and Mirai, and they had bigger jumps to begin with. But for now the jumps seem consistent enough and presentation is definitely a strength for Hannah. As for Angela I think nailing the SP will be key - she could likely still do well with a 3lz-2t as her combo instead of the 3-3, but any bigger error than that could hurt her a lot and effect her PCS in the FS and her ability to pull up in the rankings overall (we saw at the JGPF, even though she was 2nd in the FS, she still ended up a distant 4th overall after Hannah and Anna followed up their great SPs with programs almost as good as Angela's clean FS - and that was in a smaller and less deep field than Nationals).
No one even mentions the qualifiers. All 3 winners have high scores (and PC 2nd place). There was no inflation, they had to earn those scores. Vanessa with 177+ only Ashley is higher. Samantha 163+, Ashley Cain, Courtney 161+. Those are good scores with local judges not used to the PCS inflation. Don't count them out. Programs are on Ice Network.
Wow poor Zhang, after all the work she did to make her comeback to being a contender again last year, she could be right down in the dumps again. I dont see anyway she duplicates her 4th place of last year though. Wagner, Nagasu, Gold, Gao, and Zawadzki are almost certain to beat her. Then there are atleast 5 others who could. I would project a finish of about 8th for her this year if I had to guess, but if she skates really well could be 5th to 7th, and if she doesnt could even be in a really dreaded spot like 11th.
Originally Posted by silverlake22
Vanessa Lam's scores are quite inflated, IMO. I mean, internationally at junior events she usually scores in the 140s, she was 13th at Junior Worlds, scoring 138 points.... Her international PB is only 156 points, her PCS rarely break the 6s. Domestic judges didn't give her edge calls for her obvious flutz, gave her positive GOEs for jumps that barely leave the ice, and the PCS marks she got were way higher than she's received internationally. If the judges at Nationals want to do the same thing, they can, but she really should not be sent to JW as there are so many other ladies the international judges clearly think are much better (Wang, Miller, Cesario, even Barbie Long in juniors).
Originally Posted by used2sk8
Cesario I think could be a spoiler, and maybe Siraj as she seems to be returning to form and both are pretty strong presentation wise. Cesario also reportedly has a 3lo-3lo and her jumps are huge. Cain doesn't really have content to be competitive, no 3f really and her 3lz is iffy, no 3-3, and also hasn't had good international scores, and Lam too it's sort of a content issue, her spins are nice, but she has no 3-3, no 3s, her 3lz is a flutz, the jumps are smaller than Miller's, her presentation isn't nearly as good as Miller, and her FS is pretty frontloaded. Maybe she can make top 10 with generous scoring but idk, Vanessa has never impressed me much, she also needs to work on that posture, shoulders are always up by her ears, very distracting.
Last edited by silverlake22; 01-03-2013 at 08:10 AM.
But, what about the Junior Ladies? Miller, Wang, Keiser and Gold are all competing as Seniors, what about Hicks and Lam? Are they going to compete in Senior or Junior? If they are Seniors, too, who will win the Junior title? Edmunds? Long? Chen?
Hicks and Lam are both skating in the senior ladies field at Nationals, this will be Lam's 3rd senior Nationals, she was 7th in 2011 and 9th last year. They finished 1st and 2nd at PACS. Hicks IIRC was going to make her senior debut at Nationals last season but withdrew after she got injured, so this will be her debut.
Originally Posted by FSGMT
Junior ladies title will most likely go to Edmunds or Long, with Chen and Bell as potential spoilers. Edmunds and Long have both skated very well this fall though and both have 3lz-3t in the SP and FS (Edmunds also has a 3f-3t in her FS and Long a 2a-3t). Karen Chen has been trying 3lz-3lo but the 3lo is usually <. If she can avoid URs Edmunds is most likely to win, as she's a bit stronger in spins and components compared to Long.
i forgot all about courtney since we haven't seen her in a while. the only things she really has that are strong are her jumps and those aren't even consistent from what i remember, and her skating skills. her spins are ok and i CANNOT stand her choreography. i know i'm being critical but i feel like all of her programs have the same arm movements etc. she doesn't excite me. but i do think she'll be top 10 IF she is clean.
i agree that long or edmunds will win juniors but i think edmunds has the edge with better PCS. chen is also very good and i am a huge fan of her mature skating. mariah is a lovely skater but is inconsistent. and i think she'll wind up in 4th, maybe 3rd.