2012 NHK Ladies Free Skate

[MK's Winter]

I know the jumps aren't everything in a long program but I am seriously baffled when I look at the jumps performed by Mao, Akiko, and Mirai.

Akiko - 7 triples
Mirai- 6 triples
Mao- 3 triples

How can a 3 triple program win a Senior Grand Prix Event? I will admit I am no expert in COP, I grew up with 6.0 judging. I am glad that Cop focuses on aspects such as transitions, spins, footwork ect. But I feel it does not place proper emphasis on jumps. Maybe it's me but I enjoy programs that can deliver technically and artistically example 96 worlds Kwan/Chen. Am I crazy or does anyone else feel this way?

[gmyers]

Since the Japan open where Mao pledged improvement she has instead gotten worse and worse! But maybe I am mistaken about what Mao thinks of as improvement. Maybe it is not the addition of triple jumps but rather Eliminations of negative goe or improvement about how she feels she skated. When it comes to triples she is getting worse and worse but her results are better and better. Two undefeated events with less triples than were done in some of her previous winning free skates. She has got a good formula. Eliminate the triple axel and most triples and If you ur a triple and get negative goe switch to do a double. Maybe Mao at worlds will be a freeskate of all doubles with all plus three goe. The era of Mao doing triple jumps may be ending but her winning percentage may go way up!! Best season for Mao in years. She doesn't need triple jumps at all.

[wallylutz]

For the sake of discussion to pre-empt I know what's going to come from Mathman, here is how I would play with the 6.0 system if my intention is to give the appearance of fair results while in reality, someone bribed me to place Mao Asada 1st so long as it's possible to do so :

Mirai : 5.4/5.5
Akiko : 5.7/5.7
Mao : 5.1/5.8

Bingo, voila, Mao 2nd in the LP by the virtue of Presetation tie breaker. Since Akiko is too far back after the SP, Gold is Mao's. If anyone questions me, I'd say I penalized Mao greatly for the doubles but since she didn't fall, her 2nd marks didn't suffer. See? That was easy, in fact, so much easier than under CoP.

[Blades of Passion]

Well, Mathman, if you can invent a system that will make sure no skating fans will ever say that, we may have to start to worship you. FYI, under 6.0 system, Akiko would be too far back after the SP to win regardless, so the outcome would still be the same.

Under the 6.0 system Akiko would have taken 1st on the LP as compared to 3rd in the LP for Asada, meaning the overall results would have been 1. Akiko, 2. Nagasu, 3. Asada. Stop posting incorrect information.

[wallylutz]

I know the jumps aren't everything in a long program but I am seriously baffled when I look at the jumps performed by Mao, Akiko, and Mirai.

Akiko - 7 triples
Mirai- 6 triples
Mao- 3 triples

How can a 3 triple program win a Senior Grand Prix Event? I will admit I am no expert in COP, I grew up with 6.0 judging. I am glad that Cop focuses on aspects such as transitions, spins, footwork ect. But I feel it does not place proper emphasis on jumps. Maybe it's me but I enjoy programs that can deliver technically and artistically example 96 worlds Kwan/Chen. Am I crazy or does anyone else feel this way?

I too grew up in the 6.0 era, as most of us here are. That said, Akiko and Mirai's 7 and 6 Triples need to noted with * besides them. Both of Akiko's Triple Lutzes were noted as Flutz, though the severity of the violation is to be determined by each individual judges. Plus, she was also noted to have UR her Triple Loop. That means of the 7 Triple jumps she attempted, only 4 of them were clean. By giving her a 5.7 for Technical Merit in the fictitious example above, I was actually being overly generous in an attempt to appease a fan base whom I know often overlook these details. In reality, under strict interpretation of the 6.0 rules, the Triple Loop could be viewed as a Double due to the UR and the Flutzes, greatly diminished value of those jumps. If one wants to be strict, she could get as low as 5.3-5.4 for Technical Merit. But then, if I do that, there will be a big outcry that I am biased against her so no, I'd go with a 5.7 to avoid any sort of negative allegation - I have other cards in pocket with the ordinal system. Remember, I would not be anonymous under the 6.0 system.

As for Mirai, of her 6 Triples, both Triple Loops were UR, therefore, would be marked as Doubles, making her a program a 4 Triple program. She has very good spins, but slightly easier jumps, so I'd probably mark her around 5.3-5.5 range for Technical Merit. So since she only has 1 more Triple than Mao, Mao's Technical Merit in the 5.0-5.1 range would be fair in comparison. But this leaves rooms for the 2nd mark. It happens so many times in the 6.0 era that skater won on the strength of their 2nd marks despite having lower 1st marks.

All things considered, the results produced by both systems would have been very similar here, with or without any secret agenda.

[Mathman]

Well, Mathman, if you can invent a system that will make sure no skating fans will ever say that, we may have to start to worship you. FYI, under 6.0 system, Akiko would be too far back after the SP to win regardless, so the outcome would still be the same.

Alas, I do not have the solution.

But unlike the ISU, I can recognize that there is a problem. As opposed to offering lame excuses every time something goes wrong.

(By the way, under 6.0, Akiko would have won. 5th in the short and first in the long = 3.5. Under 6.0, Mao would have been 3rd behind Mirai in the free and would have 3+.5 = 3.5. Tie-break to Suzuki.)

[wallylutz]

Under the 6.0 system Akiko would have taken 1st on the LP as compared to 3rd in the LP for Asada, meaning the overall results would have been 1. Akiko, 2. Nagasu, 3. Asada. Stop posting incorrect information.

Really? Did you forget how to do basic math or something? Mao finished 2nd in the LP and 1st in the SP while Mirai finished 3rd in the Lp and 2nd in the SP, how does that add up to Nagasu 2nd and Asada 3rd?

I mean, if 1 + 1 = 3 for you, that I cannot help you.

[wallylutz]

Alas, I do not have the solution.

But unlike the ISU, I can recognize that there is a problem. As opposed to offering lame excuses every time something goes wrong.

(By the way, under 6.0, Akiko would have won. 5th in the short and first in the long = 3.5. Under 6.0, Mao would have been 3rd behind Mirai in the free and would have 3+.5 = 3.5. Tie-break to Suzuki.)

But Mathman, did you realize Mao actually finish 2nd in the LP ahead of Mirai, who was in fact 3rd in the LP? So your math is wrong.

[aftertherain]

Under the 6.0 system Akiko would have taken 1st on the LP as compared to 3rd in the LP for Asada, meaning the overall results would have been 1. Akiko, 2. Nagasu, 3. Asada. Stop posting incorrect information.

Actually, Mao was second in the LP; would that make a difference?

[Blades of Passion]

Really? Did you forget how to do basic math or something? Mao finished 2nd in the LP and 1st in the SP while Mirai finished 3rd in the Lp and 2nd in the SP, how does that add up to Nagasu 2nd and Asada 3rd?

Mao wouldn't have finished 2nd in the LP under 6.0 scoring. What do you not understand?

[wallylutz]

Mao wouldn't have finished 2nd in the LP under 6.0 scoring. What do you not understand?

uh...because you say so? With two UR Triple Loops that would be marked as doubles and a jump combo that was also UR, Mirai a nobody vs. a two time World Champion, OSM and home crowd favorite + rock star in Japan, the reputation point in the 2nd mark alone would have washed her away further than the tsunami that hit Miyagi.

[Mathman]

But Mathman, did you realize Mao actually finish 2nd in the LP ahead of Mirai, who was in fact 3rd in the LP? So your math is wrong.

What Blades of Passion said.

But I forgot Mirai. Under 6.0 she would have 2nd and 3rd = 3.5 and finish second overall, with Mao third.

In that case the crowd would not be sitting on its hands, the commentators shaking their heads, fans on skating boards tearing their hair, and Cinquanta sycophants scrambling to make excuses.

[mary01]

I know the jumps aren't everything in a long program but I am seriously baffled when I look at the jumps performed by Mao, Akiko, and Mirai.

Akiko - 7 triples
Mirai- 6 triples
Mao- 3 triples

How can a 3 triple program win a Senior Grand Prix Event? I will admit I am no expert in COP, I grew up with 6.0 judging. I am glad that Cop focuses on aspects such as transitions, spins, footwork ect. But I feel it does not place proper emphasis on jumps. Maybe it's me but I enjoy programs that can deliver technically and artistically example 96 worlds Kwan/Chen. Am I crazy or does anyone else feel this way?

now you are only looking at the jumps, you have to include all the other elements in your calculation, and when that is done you will see that akiko still won the fs by a large margin, but it was Mao's almost ten points lead from the sp that closed the gap!

[Blades of Passion]

Mirai's Triple Loops wouldn't have been marked as doubles under 6.0 scoring. They were barely UR and nobody would have noticed/cared very much. She would maybe get .1 lower on the tech score for lack of flow out.

[Orange Cat]

everyone knows that the sp is the key to victory, and we have seen this many times before!

Would that someone had messaged the ISU while Sasha Cohen was still competing, then. Or Worlds 2010, where Mirai's mini melt-down in the FS left her trailing off the podium...

In this competition I'm happy for Mirai, I'm excited about Zijun, I'm sad for Akiko, and I'm embarrassed for/with Mao. Not a brilliant feeling, to feel embarrassed for the winner