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Thread: Should the JSF be promoting Hanyu before Takahashi?

  1. #31
    Custom Title Butterscotch17's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by deedee1 View Post
    Having three top skaters would be great probably. To be honest, however, having too many top skaters in one country may not be that envious thing I would say. Just thinking about the Nats next month, my heart skips beats and my stomach aches...
    I'm not even Japanese, and I am very nervous/excited for the Japan Nationals. Some of my favorite skaters are from Japan and it will be interesting and nerve-wracking to see how it all goes down.

    Now, as for Daisuke and Yuzuru, I wish the JSF didn't have to promote anyone. That seems unfair but I do realize it goes with the territory in figure skating. I will just be hoping that they will both get scores that accurately reflect how they skate - no one "held up" or "held down" by PCS or GOE. However, if the JSF does "promote" Yuzuru more, I don't think that it will hurt Dai too much. Going into the 2011 season, I think that it is fair to say that the JSF was considering Takahiko their number one guy, and were almost given up on Dai, but that did not stop Dai from having a stellar season.

    I am a die-hard Daisuke fan, and it is my dream that he will win the Olympic gold medal in Sochi. Nothing would make me happier than that. However, I have to say that I think Yuzuru has a better chance at winning the OGM than Dai does. I mean, obviously Yuzu needs to improve some, because falling apart in the second half a free skates won't cut it, but I think he might improve that in a year. What he won't improve in just one year will be his skating skills and PCS, but I don't know that it will matter. Dai has the edge on Yuzuru in PCS as of now, but Yuzu is not too much farther behind him. Daisuke is not as good technically as Yuzuru and Chan are, and though his jumps are good and he can land them when he's on, I can't deny that Dai will be behind them in TES. Dai will have a lead on Yuzuru on PCS (not on Chan, probably), but that advantage in PCS will not be enough to make up the lead Yuzu will likely have over him in TES, in my opinion.

    As much as I truly wish that Dai will win (at least a medal, if not gold), my gut feeling is that the Olympic podium will be Chan, Plushenko (who is a wild card right now), and Yuzuru - those three in any order, I'm not going to try to predict that right now. Though I hope it will not be true, I think that Daisuke might finish fourth. No way am I counting him out though - he would have to have the skate of his life and hit all of his jumps including his two quads perfectly, plus sell the program like only he can, in order for him to do it, but it could happen. He does struggle technically sometimes, but I truly believe that if Daisuke were to nail every one of his jumps, he is the best in the world.

    So far it is Yuzuru-1, Daisuke-0. It will be interesting to see how things stand after the GPF and Nats.

  2. #32
    and... World Peace! Tonichelle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by skateluvr View Post
    Well, is Hanyu in the next 15 months going to win a WC? An Olympic bronze ...
    Who knows, it's completely possible...

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butterscotch17 View Post
    I'm not even Japanese, and I am very nervous/excited for the Japan Nationals. Some of my favorite skaters are from Japan and it will be interesting and nerve-wracking to see how it all goes down.
    Me too! It's crazy to think 2 of the top 9 finishers in this season's GP aren't even going to make it out of their Nationals.

  4. #34
    Custom Title skateluvr's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tonichelle View Post
    Who knows, it's completely possible...

    sure is toni, but fact is Dai has already done it. You can bet on this horse to show at big events. Yuzu might melt down, He's up against great skaters with far more big comps under the belt.

    I think his stamina issues are exacerbated by asthma, nerves and being too thin. He looks like he could use an expert nutritionist who work with top athletes.

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by skateluvr View Post
    I think his stamina issues are exacerbated by asthma, nerves and being too thin. He looks like he could use an expert nutritionist who work with top athletes.
    Adding weight may or may not help, as it can make the jumps harder to rotate. But I do agree he looks very thin and could use a stronger core to improve his line. COP helps him because if he can at least hit his elements in the first half of the LP and gain points, mistakes later won't hurt him as much as they would under 6.0.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by deedee1 View Post
    It's very nice of you, cleoc, saying so.
    Having three top skaters would be great probably. To be honest, however, having too many top skaters in one country may not be that envious thing I would say. Just thinking about the Nats next month, my heart skips beats and my stomach aches...
    Is there a rule that medalist of GPF (or maybe japanese skater that scores more then others) automatically gets a place in the world team? *I read about it on another forum but maybe you can clear that up?*
    I wish that JSF shouldn't be promoting anybody. I'm rooting for Yuzuru but also like Dai (and Kozuka is good skater just lacks that extra something for me). So I wish both clean performances))

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lunna View Post
    Is there a rule that medalist of GPF (or maybe japanese skater that scores more then others) automatically gets a place in the world team?
    That clause was abolished two years ago. I think they have realized it's useless when Ando and Oda qualified by the Final results in 2009. Originally it was designed to save the JSF's favorites (Asada and Takahashi) when they faltered at Japanese nationals.

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by NMURA View Post
    That clause was abolished two years ago. I think they have realized it's useless when Ando and Oda qualified by the Final results in 2009. Originally it was designed to save the JSF's favorites (Asada and Takahashi) when they faltered at Japanese nationals.
    Thanks! Yeah, Japanese nationals would be quite nerve-racking.

  9. #39
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    Hanyu has amazing jumping skills, but as a skater overall, he is still far behind Takahashi in SS, performance execution, music interpretation... most components of PCS. It is so obvious if you watch them on site. His biggest issue is that he cannot maintain the same level of performance through a program. His speed and ice coverage dropped drastically toward the end of the program, and his transitions got weaker. It is too dangerous to put all eggs in one basket. We do not know if he can keep same body shape until Sochi. He may gain weight or put more muscle in a couple of years. he may be able to have more stamina as a result, but weight gain may affect his jumps. We do not know. It is too early to dismiss anyone including Kozuka, Oda, and Machida. At all Japan nationals, we will see who is JFS's favorite.

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    LOL at anyone thinking Oda is any factor. With all the Japanese coming up, Oda is beyond done.

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by NMURA View Post
    On average, Hanyu gains 20 points more from the quads and 3A's than Takahashi.
    You wish. 2 quads (one in combo) and 2 3As (one in combo) is still just four elements. To get 20 points more on these four one skater should get smth. like +3 for all of them and another -3, then the difference can be more than 20 points. Now we do basic math here. Great! Btw, on average means more than once, i.e. on a regular basis. In what more than one competitions the said scenario ever happened to count as "on average"?
    Quote Originally Posted by NMURA View Post
    The international judges have pressed the JSF to accept Hanyu as #1 Japanese man. ... They could give Takahashi the gold medal with little difficulty. Just give Takahashi the PCS a little higher than Chan. That would be justifiable considering their performances. But they didn't do that because it would only strengthen Takahashi's position in Japan.
    Oh, wait! So ISU made PChan a boo-ed World Champion just in order not to strengthen Dai's poition in Japan? Amazing conspiracy theory!! And I was blaming SC . When in fact it was all about ... what exactly? Why on earth ISU would care whose position is #1 or #2 in Japan or in Russia or whenever. Am I missing smth.? And the most disappointing result for ISU, according to you, must be that they failed in both- the new WC was boo-ed and Dai is still that guy who is chosen to be on the cover of "Figure Skating Plus" J-magazine devoted to Team Japan Men, GP series (will be in sale in December). Sales and shows are all about money. Nothing wrong that the tickets for shows in Fukui and Niigata (Hanyu) were available in sale for quite sometime. While tickets for THE ICE (Mao) in Kanto disappeared within hours. And don't even make me tell what it took me to haunt for FOI tickets (Dai). Hanyu is still at the beginning of his career and has good chances to repeat the glory of his mentors, unless uncle Brian won't exhaust him too early.

    All these talks about who should be promoted over whom in Japan is just silly, and mostly come from Westerners where Men field is laughable. Who in JSF I wonder specifically promoted Mura before he won TEB. If I remember correctly, I was the only one on this baord who predicted that the guy will win in France. JSF has a marvelous Men field and don't really need to promote one over another because it will only weaken the field in general internationally. Any skater can be injured, make mistakes, etc., than what, if JSF would have followed promotions advices? JSF would be screwed up. I am sure they don't need it. As well as they don't need a teen to win the event and then retire. No new competing cash cow. The worst nightmare for JSF. And why everyone assume that Japan wants only one Olympic medal? They would be even happier with two. I am not saying three simply because I don't think that Plu will give his medal to anyone.

  12. #42
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by let`s talk View Post
    You wish. 2 quads (one in combo) and 2 3As (one in combo) is still just four elements. To get 20 points more on these four one skater should get smth. like +3 for all of them and another -3, then the difference can be more than 20 points. Now we do basic math here.
    At NHK Nanyu got 47.31 points and Takahashi 32.07 for the two quads and two triple Axels.

    So, an advantage of only 15.24 points for Takahashi to make up elsewhere.

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    At NHK Nanyu got 47.31 points and Takahashi 32.07 for the two quads and two triple Axels.

    So, an advantage of only 15.24 points for Takahashi to make up elsewhere.
    Btw, one quad was ur and the 3A second wasn't strictly in combo. Hanyu can "do" the same. Presumably if both rotate and do combos, then the difference over 20 points is possible only of one gets around +3 for all four and another fell/mistake and get -3 for each of four elements.

    I like the "on average" part the most.

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Niki2012 View Post
    Hanyu has amazing jumping skills, but as a skater overall, he is still far behind Takahashi in SS, performance execution, music interpretation... most components of PCS. It is so obvious if you watch them on site. His biggest issue is that he cannot maintain the same level of performance through a program. His speed and ice coverage dropped drastically toward the end of the program, and his transitions got weaker. It is too dangerous to put all eggs in one basket. We do not know if he can keep same body shape until Sochi. He may gain weight or put more muscle in a couple of years. he may be able to have more stamina as a result, but weight gain may affect his jumps. We do not know. It is too early to dismiss anyone including Kozuka, Oda, and Machida. At all Japan nationals, we will see who is JFS's favorite.
    Not to mention, at 17, Hanyu is still growing. Boys physically mature a little later compared to girls. At 18-20 is men's last stage of growth, which means his body can still change, say suddenly become quite a bit taller. That could throw off the balance of his jumps. So yes, we don't know what will happen in a year. There is a lot of uncertainties re: Hanyu, for one, skating a clean LP with his current content at least once would be a great start.

  15. #45
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by let`s talk View Post
    Presumably if both rotate and do combos,...
    That is actually why I don't usually participate in threads that go, "Who would win if everyone skates error free?" This never happens, so to me it is kind of an academic exercise with little relation to the real world.

    I like the "on average" part the most.
    Just for fun, here are the averages for this season (including GOE and fall deductions).

    Hanyu: Skate America, 38.45. NHK 47.31. average 42.88.

    Takahashi: Cup of China, 21.96; NHK, 32.07; average 27.02.

    Throw in Japan Open, 34.87, this brings Daisuke's average up to 29.63 for the four big elements.

    So Yuzuru's advantage in this category (for what it's worth) seems to be about 13 points, on the average, over the season.

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