2012 GPF Men's Free Skate LP

[silverlake22]

There are now 4, maybe 5 including Plushenko, guys that could potentially steal gold from Chan at the Olympics - Dai, Hanyu, Fernandez, Kozuka (maybe more wishful thinking on my part but still an outside shot), so if Patrick's upset, I'd say there's reason to be, and he's likely more worried than upset. He could well end up OTP at 2014 Olympics just like in 2010. I don't think it will happen, but the way things are going, it could, and that must be unsettling. Wasn't there talk that Patrick wanted to retire after 2010 and have a "normal" life? I thought I remembered that. I wonder if he's worried about being pressured to continue until 2018 should he not win in Sochi which he does not want to do and is seeming like a possibility...

[silverlake22]

My feeling is, I might be wrong though, that Hanyu will stay no matter what he gets at 2014 Olympics.

He's so young that it would make sense. But if he wins Worlds this year, and the Olympics the next, idk, there's no saying what he will want to do. I'd love for him to continue but I have no clue what his mindset it.

[Bluebonnet]

He's so young that it would make sense. But if he wins Worlds this year, and the Olympics the next, idk, there's no saying what he will want to do. I'd love for him to continue but I have no clue what his mindset it.

Me neither. But if he wins this world and the Olympics, he has only won one world. Many many skaters have won multiple worlds. So there should be more things Hanyu wants. And we haven't had a double Olympic gold medalist in men ever since Dick Button. That could be Hanyu's goal. Although, I'd love, love Patrick to lose only the worlds and to win the Olympics.

[silverlake22]

Me neither. But if he wins this world and the Olympics, he has only won one world. Many many skaters have won multiple worlds. So there should be more things Hanyu wants. And we haven't had a double Olympic gold medalist in men ever since Dick Button. That could be Hanyu's goal. Although, I'd love, love Patrick to lose only the worlds and to win the Olympics.

I have no problem with Patrick winning the Olympics if he skates well and earns it, especially if he wants to retire afterwards and feels obligated to stick around should he not win.

[lea]

Just watched the videos.

I enjoyed Dai's program the most. With mistakes... He still sold his program well.

Hanyu- Enjoyed his skating except for final step.. even though there is something bothers me in his skating
at the same time there is something special I think.

Kozuka- After the mistakes He seemed to want to end his competition quickly. Still admire his skating.
He is always underscored. It's a shame.

Chan- He was unfocused & lifeless.. His technique is getting worse.

Javier- His 4S always makes me Good performance But I didn't enjoyed it that much.

[Bluebonnet]

Takahashi did not Zayak or Oda though; that is what really hurt Chan's placement here to have a jumping pass be completely voided due to the illegal 4th combo rules. That's a huge error!

No, unfortunately, either way, it won't change Chan's placement this time neither in LP nor in final standing.

Patrick's LP has 7.72 deficit compared with the one above him which was Takahashi. Patrick has 5.63 deficit in final standing compared with the silver medalist Hanyu. A 2A base value is 3.63x. The last time he landed it, he has earned 0.43 GOE for it. So he has totally earned 4.06 from this element. Even if he could jump a super 2A this time, it would not have been enough to overcome the 5.63 deficit.

[pitterpatter]

He's so young that it would make sense. But if he wins Worlds this year, and the Olympics the next, idk, there's no saying what he will want to do. I'd love for him to continue but I have no clue what his mindset it.

He's stated in interviews that his goal is the OGM at the 2014 (or at least a medal) and 2018 games. One of the main reasons he admires Plushenko is his longevity and how he's been successful at multiple Olympics. There's no telling how he'd really feel if he actually did win gold, but he's only in his 3rd season of senior level skating so I doubt he'd get tired of competing so quickly.

[museksk8r]

No, unfortunately, either way, it won't change Chan's placement this time neither in LP nor in final standing.

Patrick's LP has 7.72 deficit compared with the one above him which was Takahashi. Patrick has 5.63 deficit in final standing compared with the silver medalist Hanyu. A 2A base value is 3.63x. The last time he landed it, he has earned 0.43 GOE for it. So he has totally earned 4.06 from this element. Even if he could jump a super 2A this time, it would not have been enough to overcome the 5.63 deficit.

He didn't just lose points for the solo 2Axel though. He lost points for what could have been a counted and clean combination jump pass. Patrick fell on a solo 4toe and landed a solo 4toe. Every repeated jump must come in combo or sequence to be counted and earn points, so when Patrick fell on the solo 4toe and then repeated the 4toe, but failed to make it a combo, he missed potential extra points for a completed combo jump pass. On his protocol which now is not accessible from the ISU website (strange ), it showed as 4T (fall) and then 4T (sequence), but he earned no points for a completed, clean combo or sequence.

Had everything gone perfectly for Patrick, he probably intended his jump layout to include a 4T and a 4T+3T combination. Thus, when he fell on the 4T, neglected to add a combo to his 2nd 4T, and illegally turned a planned solo 2Axel into a 4th combo pass, he lost points for a clean, completed 2Axel as well as a clean, completed 3T in combo with the 4T.

[jaylee]

Patrick also did too many combos in 2010 Cup of Russia: http://www.isuresults.com/results/gp..._FS_Scores.pdf

[starryxskies]

I haven't watched the programs yet, but apparently Patrick's didn't go very well. Are you putting him down for being disappointed? I don't get the impression that Patrick feels "entitled" to get a certain placement if he doesn't skate well. Ultimately, results are out of the skaters' hands anyway. I think it's more like he's disappointed with the skate (i.e. he didn't meet whatever goals he set for that FS).

For what he put out on the ice, he should be jumping for joy that he edged out Javi by 0.04 to hold onto the bronze. So yes, I think he should hide his disappointment and at least look happy to be respectful. He himself said that "it happens" when he got his scores.

I can kind of see Yuzuru pulling a Kim Yuna after 2014 if he wins OGM. But I really want him off the podium so he can win Olympics when he's a more mature skater.

[seniorita]

Congradulations to Dai for the win!!! Hanyu will hopefully rock it by worlds! And Fernandez is due for a Euro title!!! I so wanted a Japanese podium, with Dai Hanyu and Kozu! It is really sad from all skating experts who appreciate the god sent skating skills, that they dont see how much Kozuka is underscored.

[ImaginaryPogue]

re: Judges and Chan

The judges aren't phasing Chan out. He's earning higher PCS this season than last season. He's getting hammered by his own mistakes. Falling on jumps is a less costly mistake than popping jumps. Wrong combos (4T+1T at COR sp, the 2A+2T) are costly. Looking at it with his CoR routine

4t+3t = BV 14.4
4t = BV 10.3
.....
2A = BV 3.63 (second half bonus included)

BV = 28.00 points

What he did
4T = 10.3
4T (seq) = 8.24
....
2A+2T = fourth combo, so nada

Total: BV = 18.54

So he lost nearly ten points in BASE VALUE for the combination of not having a 4T combo, and having an extra jump pass discounted. But when you compare it to CoR, with the GOEs and fall penalty, he lost 17.36 points. For comparison, three falls on fully rotated quads and/or triples will only cost ten points, or even less.

It's not the costliest error to make (that goes to Nobunari Oda's twenty point miscalculation), but it's right up there.

re: quads

That depends on the Olympics. If the Olympics see a poor skate winning due to high base value, you'll see it being diminished.

re: Kozuka

Kurt frickin' Browning prefers him to Chan. I don't see how the judges don't respect what he does.

[kimganos]

[QUOTE! It is really sad from all skating experts who appreciate the god sent skating skills, that they dont see how much Kozuka is underscored.[/QUOTE]

[suzukifan27]

re: Judges and Chan

The judges aren't phasing Chan out. He's earning higher PCS this season than last season. .

It's a gradual phase-out and there is no doubt. He is no longer able to rely on those inflated pcs to win competitions despite big mistakes. The PCS gap is narrowing. Takahashi got almost the same pcs while both made mistakes. This has never happened in the past. If Chan continues to make technical mistakes, which I'm pretty sure he will, he will be in big big trouble since judges appear to have shifted attention to Hanyu, the spaniard. Takahashi also gets renewed respect, probably because of Monorov.

[ImaginaryPogue]

It's a gradual phase-out and there is no doubt. He is no longer able to rely on those inflated pcs to win competitions despite big mistakes. The PCS gap is narrowing. Takahashi got almost the same pcs while both made mistakes. This has never happened in the past. If Chan continues to make technical mistakes, which I'm pretty sure he will, he will be in big big trouble since judges appear to have shifted attention to Hanyu, the spaniard. Takahashi also gets renewed respect, probably because of Monorov.

What I believe we're seeing

a) Giving him HIGHER scores than before in terms of GOEs and PCS.
b) The other skaters skating at an extremely high level re: elements (Fernandez landed three quads in this LP!!!!!! In fact, Dai, Hanyu, Fernandez and Kozuka are all going for harder jump content this year)
c) The other skaters skating at an extremely high level re: PCS (Hanyu, Fernandez, Takahashi are all proficient PCS tickers - as is Kozuka, le sigh)
d) Chan making specific errors that are punished more.

Do you agree with my assertions?