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Thread: 2014 Olympics: Asada vs. Kim

  1. #31
    Custom Title mary01's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    Her PCS at Skate Canada weren't that far off lol. I know it was in Canada but it's still an international panel, and Worlds are in Canada this year too.

    Julia might be able to win in Sochi before she really has to deal with the worst of the puberty monster, sort of like Lipinski or Meissner winning Worlds in 06. Leonova and Sotnikova are looking headcase-y now but that could change. Tuk is still landing 7 triple FS even while dealing with puberty monster so if she can cope that well now, she might be even stronger by next season and if she has adjusted and looks more grown-up and less awkward out there, her PCS could improve. Russia will surely have a strong team to send to the Olympics, it might not be the girls we expect to make the team, but there are just so many good skaters to pick from, even if things continue the way they are for the favorites, some other girl will rise to the challenge and go instead. I mean look at that girl Pogorilaya, she came out of nowhere and each competition she gets better, her 2nd GP she increased her score 15 points from her first, then she just won bronze at JGPF with a score 8 points higher than her 2nd JGP, almost 170 total. PCS went from 42 to 50 in a few weeks, she keeps jumping this way they will just get higher. She can do 3lz-3t and 2a-3t, last season she was 13th at Junior Nationals. She is 14 like Julia, puberty monster might not be an issue until after Sochi. She is just one example, this kind of ascent isn't even unusual in Russian ladies these days.

    Kim has big PCS but her FS jump layout isn't even that ambitious, and she usually makes mistakes. I think it would be fairly easy for a Russian lady, or someone else, to outjump her enough to make up for the PCS deficit and win. Mao's content is currently really weak and her PCS aren't even as strong as Kim. Same for Carolina if she ends up coming back. Boosting the PCS of some jumping bean is not that difficult if they show a consistent ability to land hard jumps consistently. Not anyone can get PCS of like 66-68 like Mao or Yuna, but with consistent jumping, 60 is possible for pretty much any decent skater who can land difficult jumps consistently. It happened for Mirai at 2010 Olympics, it's happening for Gracie and Kaitlyn now. Yuna and Mao could still be a factor, but it's in no way a done deal.
    so Mao's content is weak? maybe you should take a look at the skaters with the highest Tech and PCS score, cause maybe that will give you a reality check!

    but i agree about one thing, there is no done deal, anything can happen in a sport like figure skating, PCS can suddenly rise and fall, jump content can be added, consistency can be gained, pretty much anything can happen in a whole year!

  2. #32
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    Yes maos jump content is very very weak in the scale of what is possible and done by others sometimes but the 66 pcs speaks for itself as well as the spin and step scores Mao gets.

    Like Liza and her 53 pcs means she would have to do like 2 quads to be competitive or triple Axels or something.
    Last edited by gmyers; 12-09-2012 at 06:31 PM.

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    Her PCS at Skate Canada weren't that far off lol. I know it was in Canada but it's still an international panel, and Worlds are in Canada this year too.

    Julia might be able to win in Sochi before she really has to deal with the worst of the puberty monster, sort of like Lipinski or Meissner winning Worlds in 06. Leonova and Sotnikova are looking headcase-y now but that could change. Tuk is still landing 7 triple FS even while dealing with puberty monster so if she can cope that well now, she might be even stronger by next season and if she has adjusted and looks more grown-up and less awkward out there, her PCS could improve. Russia will surely have a strong team to send to the Olympics, it might not be the girls we expect to make the team, but there are just so many good skaters to pick from, even if things continue the way they are for the favorites, some other girl will rise to the challenge and go instead. I mean look at that girl Pogorilaya, she came out of nowhere and each competition she gets better, her 2nd GP she increased her score 15 points from her first, then she just won bronze at JGPF with a score 8 points higher than her 2nd JGP, almost 170 total. PCS went from 42 to 50 in a few weeks, she keeps jumping this way they will just get higher. She can do 3lz-3t and 2a-3t, last season she was 13th at Junior Nationals. She is 14 like Julia, puberty monster might not be an issue until after Sochi. She is just one example, this kind of ascent isn't even unusual in Russian ladies these days.

    Kim has big PCS but her FS jump layout isn't even that ambitious, and she usually makes mistakes. I think it would be fairly easy for a Russian lady, or someone else, to outjump her enough to make up for the PCS deficit and win. Mao's content is currently really weak and her PCS aren't even as strong as Kim. Same for Carolina if she ends up coming back. Boosting the PCS of some jumping bean is not that difficult if they show a consistent ability to land hard jumps consistently. Not anyone can get PCS of like 66-68 like Mao or Yuna, but with consistent jumping, 60 is possible for pretty much any decent skater who can land difficult jumps consistently. It happened for Mirai at 2010 Olympics, it's happening for Gracie and Kaitlyn now. Yuna and Mao could still be a factor, but it's in no way a done deal.
    Julia really doesn't have the content with jumps to overtake the pcs people. The best thing she could do would be to tie. She would also have to add s triple axel or a quad to really make up for her pcs problems.

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by coolboogie22 View Post
    I would much consider the battle for the gold medal : Kim Vs Osmond

    Osmond could have be the «it» factor this year if she could have competed at NHK Trophy 2012 and she could have easily beat Mao Asada at the Grand Prix Final.

    Look at those score at Skate Canada Challenge (5-9 december) that Kaetlyn Osmond earn:

    http://results.skatecanada.ca/2012-2...catResults.pdf
    http://results.skatecanada.ca/2012-2...gesDetails.pdf
    http://results.skatecanada.ca/2012-2...gesDetails.pdf

    Kaetlyn is definately able to win Sochi, she is very consistent and artistry
    I dunno about winning Sochi, but I do think she's a rising star and will be a contender for a while. She's got big huge jumps, terrific transitions, good spins, skating skills, and interpretative ability. Could use a bit of polish and some of her expressions don't always fit the music, but yeah, I understand why she inspires optimism.

    I think it's a little late for her to be gathering enough momentum to WIN in Sochi (we're talking about someone who didn't medal at last year's Junior Worlds...), but I wouldn't be shocked to see her on the Worlds podium next year. The one that's taking place in Canada.

    Despite the fact that she didn't get an edge call at that competition, she needs to clean up her lutz and flip (got edge calls on both on the GP), and she could use a harder 3/3 than a 3T/3T.

    She'll also need to be consistent! One good showing at the GP (contested by some, I think unfairly, but she could've done herself a favor by being clean in the FS) does not make a world contender. I look forward to seeing how she does in the future.

    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    Kim has big PCS but her FS jump layout isn't even that ambitious, and she usually makes mistakes. I think it would be fairly easy for a Russian lady, or someone else, to outjump her enough to make up for the PCS deficit and win.
    "Isn't even that ambitious"? What are you smoking? She goes for the 3Lz/3T even though she could go for the easier 2A/3T. If hers isn't ambitious, what are programs like Akiko's, Mao's, and Ashley's (no 3/3 or 2A/3T), the top ladies at the GPF?

    Is it the MOST ambitious? No, it is not. But I wouldn't consider a 6-triple program with a difficult 3/3 a program something that's not "even that ambitious".

    That said, I think it's possible that at a competition Yu-Na gets outjumped by someone. If it's Liza though, Liza is already out jumping others but isn't outscoring or defeating them. Adelina? Adelina is not outjumping anyone right now. Julia? Again, Julia outjumped many seniors already but still didn't win either of her GP events.

    Yu-Na is in no way unbeatable but her chances in future competitions are looking good. Those 3/3s, lutzes, and the ability to do 3F and 3Lz help. Her experience having been under the greatest of pressures helps. it all helps. She's got a good chance, and that's all she needs. It's never going to be a 100% chance.

  5. #35
    can't come down to Earth prettykeys's Avatar
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    Personally, I was sick of the YuNa vs. Mao thing years ago and I hope 2014 doesn't focus on them again. Luckily, I think a number of ladies have stepped up to become podium threats (yes, what an odd saying for a YuNa fan, LOL). 2010 was mostly about YuNa and Mao with Joannie as a potential Gold threat. I didn't like the laser-focus on YuNa and Mao.

    I disagree that the Olympics is about "stamina". It's about nerves. The best and the fittest have stumbled here, and I remain cautious and realistic that this could happen to YuNa in Sochi. She is human; she does feel pressure; she does have doubts and question marks swirling around in her mind (despite some people's characterizations of her as "arrogant" or "overconfident").

    - Mao has already been discussed as potential Gold
    - Ashley Wagner is already much improved since the last few years and has room to get even better
    - Carolina Kostner - everything she does is of high quality. If she were to resume doing her 3F-3T regularly, she is definitely a Gold contender. Or even 3F-2T with 3Lz re-inserted in her repertoire.
    - Miki Ando can still come back.
    - One of the Russian girls might find her groove (Liza? Julia?) with accompanying PCS to go with their technical content
    - or, maybe someone unexpected like Kaetlyn Osmond! Kanako Murakami? Will she stop being plagued by UR calls?

    ...and so on. I think the overall field looks more interesting for 2014 than it was for 2010 and I find that a good thing.

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    Yes, Yuna is doing 3lz-3t, so in the SP that makes for a very ambitious program with the 3f. But in the FS, apart from the 3lz-3t, the rest of her planned jumps and combinations aren't big ones - she repeats 3s instead of 3f, and her other combos are 3s-2t and 2a-2t-2lo. I know not doing 3lo is likely the reason she is not doing a 2a-3t or 3-1/2lo-3s sequence, but she still isn't doing them. Other ladies may not being doing a 3lz-3t but are still trying for 7 triples in the FS, putting tougher combos in the 2nd half, repeating 2 of the harder triples or doing two combos with 3t on the end. To me, Yuna's 3lz-3t is what makes her different from everyone else. Take away her 3lz-3t and her program content is as watered down as many posters complain Mao, Ashley, Carolina's are. Yuna has one really good, hard combination which is giving her an edge for now, along with her PCS, but as we're seeing with the men, that could change. Yuna's jump layouts are comparable to someone like Patrick's, while Gracie and some of the Russian girls is more like Hanyu or Javi. Thing is, we might see more ladies try harder content knowing Yuna's back, and if that happens, PCS will likely increase if they are successful with hard content, and Yuna may not be the clear frontrunner anymore.

    Regarding Liza's PCS, I think they are the way they are now because she is not the clear Russian number 1, Russia has a wealth of talented ladies to choose from so right now they don't need to be promoting Tuk as the main hope for Sochi because others could still do better. If Leonova, Sotnikova, and the Polinas continue to struggle, Julia is still dealing with injuries, then it may be more clear Liza is Russia number 1, and if that is the case, there will be more attention and as long as she skates well, her PCS will likely be better. Liza's TES is keeping her afloat for now, but where she isn't so strong in spins, and ice coverage is somewhat limited and body type not ideal compared to others, Fed might be holding off on backing her completely to see if someone else can't do better in time for Sochi. But if she can start skating clean SPs and keep up the 7 triple FS, and others continue to struggle, I think her scores will improve.

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    This whole thread is a major *facepalm.

    1. Discussing the result of a competition which is more than a year away is useless.
    2. I don't see people discussing the possible outcomes of Worlds or GPF that are more than a year away, because everyone knows how silly it is. Why don't try to think a bit when it comes to olympic games as well?
    3. The answer to the question is yes, they could. Like with any 2 top ladies in fact.

  8. #38
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    It will be an interesting competition but here we go again, I truly hope fans will be able to keep their emotions under control and respect each other... But I have a feeling this is going to spark war lol

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daniel5555 View Post
    This whole thread is a major *facepalm.

    1. Discussing the result of a competition which is more than a year away is useless.
    2. I don't see people discussing the possible outcomes of Worlds or GPF that are more than a year away, because everyone knows how silly it is. Why don't try to think a bit when it comes to olympic games as well?
    3. The answer to the question is yes, they could. Like with any 2 top ladies in fact.
    Goodness! Does the existence of this thread test your patience with the human race as sorely as the other one does?

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daniel5555 View Post
    This whole thread is a major *facepalm.

    1. Discussing the result of a competition which is more than a year away is useless.
    2. I don't see people discussing the possible outcomes of Worlds or GPF that are more than a year away, because everyone knows how silly it is. Why don't try to think a bit when it comes to olympic games as well?
    3. The answer to the question is yes, they could. Like with any 2 top ladies in fact.
    Loosen up; it'll do you some good.

    Useless, sure. But really, discussing anything figure skating can be considered "useless". This thread is for speculation about skating veterans, newbies, and up-and-comers who may qualify for the Olympic season next year. It's fun to compare a skater's strengths and weaknesses as well as what they can improve on and guessing what they might add or take out in programs.

    Anyway, if you though this thread was useless, then why bother coming in here and posting at all?

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    Yes, Yuna is doing 3lz-3t, so in the SP that makes for a very ambitious program with the 3f. But in the FS, apart from the 3lz-3t, the rest of her planned jumps and combinations aren't big ones - she repeats 3s instead of 3f, and her other combos are 3s-2t and 2a-2t-2lo. I know not doing 3lo is likely the reason she is not doing a 2a-3t or 3-1/2lo-3s sequence, but she still isn't doing them. Other ladies may not being doing a 3lz-3t but are still trying for 7 triples in the FS, putting tougher combos in the 2nd half, repeating 2 of the harder triples or doing two combos with 3t on the end. To me, Yuna's 3lz-3t is what makes her different from everyone else. Take away her 3lz-3t and her program content is as watered down as many posters complain Mao, Ashley, Carolina's are. Yuna has one really good, hard combination which is giving her an edge for now, along with her PCS, but as we're seeing with the men, that could change. Yuna's jump layouts are comparable to someone like Patrick's, while Gracie and some of the Russian girls is more like Hanyu or Javi. Thing is, we might see more ladies try harder content knowing Yuna's back, and if that happens, PCS will likely increase if they are successful with hard content, and Yuna may not be the clear frontrunner anymore.

    Regarding Liza's PCS, I think they are the way they are now because she is not the clear Russian number 1, Russia has a wealth of talented ladies to choose from so right now they don't need to be promoting Tuk as the main hope for Sochi because others could still do better. If Leonova, Sotnikova, and the Polinas continue to struggle, Julia is still dealing with injuries, then it may be more clear Liza is Russia number 1, and if that is the case, there will be more attention and as long as she skates well, her PCS will likely be better. Liza's TES is keeping her afloat for now, but where she isn't so strong in spins, and ice coverage is somewhat limited and body type not ideal compared to others, Fed might be holding off on backing her completely to see if someone else can't do better in time for Sochi. But if she can start skating clean SPs and keep up the 7 triple FS, and others continue to struggle, I think her scores will improve.
    You may be right, but given the fact that none of the top ladies even attempt 3LZ+3T, actually they really can't land clearly without UR or Edge violation, Yuna is pretty safe. Liza is a different case, but where the line draws is from their skating abilities and artistry. As you've mentioned, her PCS is low, and sorry to say, but I don't think she'll improve by the time Sochi comes. I think artistry comes "naturally" rather than being taught.

    Yuna's FS is (i think) the most ambitious one compared to other women in the GPF. Yuna's program ties every jump and she executes them well. You have to consider GOE as part of this "battle" amongst skaters because it really can make a difference, and Yuna, as you know from Vancouver, receives high GOE.


    Also, Yuna's interview explains she may be changing her jumps, so it's too early to conclude her repertoire is not ambitious. But we'll see
    Asked whether she might consider adding a triple loop to her repertoire, Kim said only, "If there is room for improvement, I will change some jumps."
    .
    Last edited by Melon; 12-09-2012 at 09:48 PM.

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    Goodness! Does the existence of this thread test your patience with the human race as sorely as the other one does?
    Well, let's analyze this important issue as the reasonable people that we are. The other thread has baseless criticism of COP which is equally annoying as "Yuna vs Mao"... But this thread also has olympic games, outrageous statements, and a poster that asks another poster what jump layout has Mao if he considers Yuna's layout "not that ambitious" even though that another poster said in the same post that Mao's layout is "really weak", so it makes me wonder if this is reading incomprehension or worse. Of course, I also won't even try to ask, why exactly Mao's layout is "really weak", because it would imply asking what would be considered "really strong"... I don't think I'll like the answer.

    So, this thread is basically 3 times worse for my patience than another.

    Quote Originally Posted by aftertherain View Post
    Loosen up; it'll do you some good.
    No.

    Quote Originally Posted by aftertherain View Post
    Useless, sure. But really, discussing anything figure skating can be considered "useless". This thread is for speculation about skating veterans, newbies, and up-and-comers who may qualify for the Olympic season next year. It's fun to compare a skater's strengths and weaknesses as well as what they can improve on and guessing what they might add or take out in programs.
    Well, I guess if they actually did that, it could be fun or even useful, but instead I doubt they even try to comprehend each other.

    Quote Originally Posted by aftertherain View Post
    Anyway, if you though this thread was useless, then why bother coming in here and posting at all?
    Because I have too much ego, of course.

  13. #43
    :) aftertherain's Avatar
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    Eh. Maybe Shizuka Arakawa can come back and give everyone a run for their money. I hear she does a mean 3Lz-3L now.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXasiY2TwBQ&t=0m34s

    In all seriousness though, I'd have to agree with prettykeys. While a good rivalry makes the sport more enjoyable to watch, the Mao-Yuna rivalry has been super-charged with political/national aspects for so long ...

    Anyway,
    **Mao? Always a contender in my book! Both footwork sequences in this year's programs are just so fun to watch. I hope she keeps them up for next year!
    **I think Ashley Wagner is definitely a contender. John Nicks had helped her so much with confidence and pacing herself. I hope she manages to get a 3/3 under her belt or at least upgrade the 2A/2T to a 2A/3T.
    **Carolina is another major factor. She's shown that, in the past, she's been able to produce 3/3, 3/3/2, and even 3/3/3 (in practice). If she's recovered from last year's injury well enough and trains properly, I think she can get those back.
    ** With all this talk about the Russian ladies and puberty, it's really all just a guessing game. They've shown that they're willing to try 3/3s and Julia has some insane positions for spins that will surely garner her +levels and +GOE.
    **There are also some up-and-comers as well. Gracie Gold, Katelyn Osmond have produced good programs this year. Gracie had been known to attempt 3/3 and 3/3/3s in practice, so don't count her out!
    **Or maybe one of the "veterans", like Mirai Nagasu can pull a 2010-AkikoSuzuki and surprise the heck out of everyone like she did on the GP circuit in the 2009-2010 season.
    Last edited by aftertherain; 12-09-2012 at 10:13 PM.

  14. #44
    and... World Peace! Tonichelle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by prettykeys View Post
    Personally, I was sick of the YuNa vs. Mao thing years ago and I hope 2014 doesn't focus on them again.
    oh good. I'm not alone in feeling that way!

  15. #45
    :) aftertherain's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daniel5555 View Post
    So, this thread is basically 3 times worse for my patience than another.
    So basically, you're feeding yourself more misery.

    Anyway, stay pressed.

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